Polling model
Race to the WH
Built by Logan Phillips: polls plus fundamentals, tested against past election cycles.
100.0%Points share on 7 battlegrounds
7–0–0Right – wrong – no call
100.0%Hit rate when it made a call
7–0–0Forced call: right – wrong – tie
100.0%60% line: points share (7–0–0 right – wrong – no pick)
0.032Probability accuracy on battlegrounds (lower is better)
0.008Probability accuracy, all its called races
0.016Three-way accuracy, D / R / I (0 is perfect, 2 the worst)
1 of 1Flips it named that happened · 1 seats flipped among the races it rated
+1.3Seats against expectations: kept by the seat-holding party beyond (+) or short of (−) its stated chances
Probability skill on battlegrounds: +87% against saying 50–50 everywhere. On the shared Senate and House battlegrounds, as on the scoreboard: +86%.
By rating
How its ratings held up
| Rating | Held |
|---|---|
| Solid / Safe | 24 of 24 |
| Likely | 2 of 2 |
| Lean | 3 of 3 |
| Tilt | 1 of 1 |
Bold calls
Sides only it named (3)
Battlegrounds where it named a side no other forecaster named.
| Race | Its forecast | Call | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Florida 22 (House) | Tilt D · D 69% | D ✓ | D Democrat hold · called Nov 3, 8:12 PM ET |
| Ohio 7 (House) | Tilt R · R 66% | R | Not yet called |
| Iowa Senate | Tilt D · D 65% | D | Not yet called |
Late moves
Its changes since Oct 21 (163)
| When | Race | From → to | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 24, 2:10 PM ET | Colorado 5 (House) | Toss-up R 63% → Tilt R 65% | pending |
| Oct 25, 2:10 AM ET | South Carolina Senate | Tilt R 75% → Lean R 77% | pending |
| Oct 25, 2:10 AM ET | Texas Senate | Tilt D 74.9% → Lean D 75.0% | pending |
| Oct 25, 2:11 AM ET | North Carolina 14 (House) | Likely R 95.0% → Solid/Safe R 95.0% | pending |
| Oct 25, 2:11 AM ET | New York 17 (House) | Toss-up D 65.0% → Tilt D 65.0% | pending |
| Oct 25, 2:11 AM ET | Washington 3 (House) | Tilt D 75% → Lean D 76% | pending |
| Oct 25, 4:07 PM ET | Texas Senate | Lean D 75.0% → Tilt D 74.9% | pending |
| Oct 25, 4:09 PM ET | Pennsylvania 10 (House) | Tilt D 71% → Toss-up D 58% | pending |
| Oct 26, 12:07 AM ET | Texas Senate | Tilt D 74.9% → Lean D 75.4% | pending |
| Oct 26, 12:08 AM ET | Arizona 4 (House) | Likely D 93% → Solid/Safe D 98% | pending |
| Oct 26, 12:08 AM ET | Florida 2 (House) | Likely R 87% → Lean R 84% | pending |
| Oct 26, 12:08 AM ET | Florida 9 (House) | Toss-up 50% → Lean R 83% | pending |
| Oct 26, 12:08 AM ET | Maine 2 (House) | Toss-up R 65.0% → Tilt R 65.0% | pending |
| Oct 26, 12:08 AM ET | Pennsylvania 7 (House) | Tilt D 75.0% → Lean D 75.0% | pending |
| Oct 26, 2:07 PM ET | Arizona 1 (House) | Toss-up D 63% → Tilt D 66% | pending |
| Oct 26, 2:07 PM ET | Arizona 6 (House) | Tilt D 70% → Lean D 82% | pending |
| Oct 26, 2:07 PM ET | Florida 7 (House) | Tilt R 69% → Toss-up R 64% | pending |
| Oct 26, 2:07 PM ET | Florida 9 (House) | Lean R 83% → Toss-up 50% | pending |
| Oct 26, 2:07 PM ET | Florida 11 (House) | Lean R 78% → Likely R 87% | pending |
| Oct 26, 2:07 PM ET | Florida 16 (House) | Tilt R 73% → Lean R 81% | pending |
| Oct 26, 2:07 PM ET | Florida 25 (House) | Toss-up D 64% → Lean D 78% | helped |
| Oct 26, 2:07 PM ET | Michigan 4 (House) | Toss-up R 62% → Tilt R 67% | pending |
| Oct 26, 2:07 PM ET | Michigan 10 (House) | Toss-up 50% → Toss-up R 54% | pending |
| Oct 26, 2:07 PM ET | North Carolina 11 (House) | Tilt D 71% → Lean D 79% | helped |
| Oct 26, 2:07 PM ET | Ohio 8 (House) | Likely R 95% → Solid/Safe R 98% | pending |
| Oct 26, 2:07 PM ET | Tennessee 9 (House) | Likely R 86% → Tilt R 72% | pending |
| Oct 26, 10:09 PM ET | Arizona 6 (House) | Lean D 82% → Likely D 87% | pending |
| Oct 26, 10:09 PM ET | California 13 (House) | Lean D 83% → Likely D 88% | pending |
| Oct 26, 10:09 PM ET | California 21 (House) | Likely D 95% → Solid/Safe D 96% | pending |
| Oct 26, 10:09 PM ET | Colorado 8 (House) | Tilt D 73% → Lean D 79% | pending |
| Oct 26, 10:09 PM ET | Iowa 2 (House) | Toss-up 50% → Toss-up D 55% | pending |
| Oct 26, 10:09 PM ET | Iowa 3 (House) | Toss-up D 63% → Tilt D 68% | pending |
| Oct 26, 10:09 PM ET | Kansas 2 (House) | Solid/Safe R 98% → Likely R 93% | pending |
| Oct 26, 10:09 PM ET | Kentucky 6 (House) | Toss-up 50% → Toss-up D 53% | pending |
| Oct 26, 10:09 PM ET | Maine 2 (House) | Tilt R 65% → Toss-up R 64% | pending |
| Oct 26, 10:09 PM ET | Michigan 4 (House) | Tilt R 67% → Toss-up R 63% | pending |
| Oct 26, 10:09 PM ET | Minnesota 1 (House) | Tilt R 66% → Toss-up R 61% | pending |
| Oct 26, 10:09 PM ET | Montana 1 (House) | Toss-up 50% → Toss-up D 52% | pending |
| Oct 26, 10:09 PM ET | North Carolina 3 (House) | Solid/Safe R 96% → Likely R 94% | pending |
| Oct 26, 10:09 PM ET | North Carolina 9 (House) | Solid/Safe R 97% → Likely R 93% | pending |
| Oct 26, 10:09 PM ET | Nebraska 1 (House) | Solid/Safe R 98% → Likely R 90% | pending |
| Oct 26, 10:09 PM ET | New Hampshire 1 (House) | Lean D 83% → Likely D 87% | helped |
| Oct 26, 10:09 PM ET | Nevada 3 (House) | Likely D 90% → Solid/Safe D 95% | pending |
| Oct 26, 10:09 PM ET | New York 4 (House) | Likely D 90% → Solid/Safe D 95% | pending |
| Oct 26, 10:09 PM ET | New York 21 (House) | Tilt R 67% → Toss-up R 62% | pending |
| Oct 26, 10:09 PM ET | Texas 15 (House) | Tilt R 72% → Toss-up R 57% | pending |
| Oct 26, 10:09 PM ET | Virginia 1 (House) | Toss-up 50% → Toss-up D 53% | pending |
| Oct 26, 10:09 PM ET | Washington 5 (House) | Solid/Safe R 97% → Likely R 94% | pending |
| Oct 27, 12:05 AM ET | South Carolina Senate | Lean R 79% → Tilt R 66% | pending |
| Oct 27, 2:07 AM ET | Michigan 1 (House) | Likely R 95.0% → Solid/Safe R 95.0% | pending |
| Oct 27, 2:07 AM ET | Ohio 1 (House) | Likely D 95.0% → Solid/Safe D 95.0% | pending |
| Oct 27, 2:07 AM ET | Virginia 2 (House) | Lean D 84% → Likely D 85% | pending |
| Oct 27, 10:09 AM ET | Michigan Senate | Lean D 84% → Likely D 86% | pending |
| Oct 27, 2:10 PM ET | Colorado 4 (House) | Likely R 87% → Lean R 85% | pending |
| Oct 27, 2:10 PM ET | Indiana 5 (House) | Solid/Safe R 95% → Likely R 94% | pending |
| Oct 27, 2:10 PM ET | Michigan 1 (House) | Solid/Safe R 95.0% → Likely R 95.0% | pending |
| Oct 27, 2:10 PM ET | New York 17 (House) | Tilt D 66% → Toss-up D 64% | pending |
| Oct 27, 2:10 PM ET | Ohio 1 (House) | Solid/Safe D 95.0% → Likely D 95.0% | pending |
| Oct 27, 2:10 PM ET | Virginia 2 (House) | Likely D 85% → Lean D 83% | pending |
| Oct 28, 12:08 AM ET | Michigan 1 (House) | Likely R 95.0% → Solid/Safe R 95.0% | pending |
| Oct 28, 2:06 PM ET | Minnesota Senate | Likely D 89% → Solid/Safe D 96% | pending |
| Oct 28, 2:06 PM ET | South Carolina Senate | Tilt R 72% → Toss-up R 65% | pending |
| Oct 28, 4:10 PM ET | Colorado 4 (House) | Lean R 85.0% → Likely R 85.0% | pending |
| Oct 28, 4:11 PM ET | Georgia governor | Tilt R 67% → Toss-up R 63% | pending |
| Oct 28, 6:09 PM ET | Kansas governor | Lean R 75% → Tilt R 73% | pending |
| Oct 28, 6:09 PM ET | Ohio governor | Tilt D 68% → Lean D 77% | pending |
| Oct 28, 6:09 PM ET | Wisconsin governor | Toss-up D 55% → Tilt D 67% | pending |
| Oct 29, 12:07 AM ET | Maine 2 (House) | Toss-up R 65.0% → Tilt R 65.0% | pending |
| Oct 29, 2:08 PM ET | Alabama Senate | Solid/Safe R 99% → Likely R 95% | pending |
| Oct 29, 2:09 PM ET | Colorado 4 (House) | Likely R 85.0% → Lean R 85.0% | pending |
| Oct 29, 2:09 PM ET | Maine 2 (House) | Tilt R 65.0% → Toss-up R 65.0% | pending |
| Oct 29, 2:09 PM ET | New York 19 (House) | Likely D 95.0% → Solid/Safe D 95.0% | pending |
| Oct 29, 4:08 PM ET | South Carolina Senate | Toss-up R 61% → Tilt R 66% | pending |
| Oct 29, 4:09 PM ET | California 4 (House) | Solid/Safe D 94% → Solid/Safe R 62% | pending |
| Oct 30, 12:09 AM ET | Maine 2 (House) | Toss-up R 65.0% → Tilt R 65.0% | pending |
| Oct 30, 2:08 AM ET | Alabama Senate | Likely R 95% → Solid/Safe R 96% | pending |
| Oct 30, 2:10 AM ET | Michigan governor | Lean D 84.8% → Likely D 85.1% | pending |
| Oct 30, 2:06 PM ET | Kansas Senate | Toss-up R 54% → Toss-up D 52% | pending |
| Oct 30, 2:06 PM ET | Montana Senate | Lean R 76% → Tilt R 74% | pending |
| Oct 30, 2:06 PM ET | North Carolina Senate | Likely D 95.0% → Solid/Safe D 95.0% | pending |
| Oct 30, 2:07 PM ET | California 6 (House) | Likely D 87% → Solid/Safe D 97% | pending |
| Oct 30, 2:07 PM ET | California 22 (House) | Lean D 79% → Likely D 86% | pending |
| Oct 30, 4:07 PM ET | Montana Senate | Tilt R 74% → Lean R 75% | pending |
| Oct 31, 12:09 AM ET | California 45 (House) | Likely D 95.0% → Solid/Safe D 95.0% | pending |
| Oct 31, 12:09 AM ET | Indiana 1 (House) | Likely D 95.0% → Solid/Safe D 95.0% | hurt |
| Oct 31, 12:09 AM ET | Ohio 7 (House) | Toss-up R 64% → Tilt R 65% | pending |
| Oct 31, 2:08 AM ET | Arizona governor | Lean D 84% → Likely D 85% | pending |
| Oct 31, 2:08 AM ET | New Mexico governor | Lean D 84% → Likely D 85% | pending |
| Oct 31, 2:08 PM ET | Alaska at-large (House) | Likely R 86% → Lean R 85% | pending |
| Oct 31, 2:08 PM ET | Kentucky 6 (House) | Toss-up D 51% → Toss-up R 55% | pending |
| Oct 31, 2:08 PM ET | New York 17 (House) | Toss-up D 65% → Tilt D 67% | pending |
| Oct 31, 2:09 PM ET | Arizona governor | Likely D 85.1% → Lean D 85.0% | pending |
| Oct 31, 4:09 PM ET | Nebraska Senate | Tilt R 66% → Lean R 81% | pending |
| Oct 31, 4:09 PM ET | South Carolina Senate | Tilt R 65% → Toss-up R 64% | pending |
| Oct 31, 4:11 PM ET | Indiana 1 (House) | Solid/Safe D 95.0% → Likely D 95.0% | hurt |
| Oct 31, 4:12 PM ET | Arizona governor | Lean D 85.0% → Likely D 85.0% | pending |
| Nov 1, 12:10 AM ET | Indiana 1 (House) | Likely D 95.0% → Solid/Safe D 95.0% | hurt |
| Nov 1, 12:10 AM ET | Minnesota 1 (House) | Toss-up R 64% → Tilt R 65% | pending |
| Nov 1, 12:10 AM ET | Missouri 2 (House) | Toss-up 50% → Toss-up R 57% | pending |
| Nov 1, 1:10 AM ET | Tennessee governor | Likely R 94.7% → Solid/Safe R 95.1% | pending |
| Nov 1, 1:10 AM ET | Wisconsin governor | Tilt D 65.3% → Toss-up D 64.6% | pending |
| Nov 1, 11:08 AM ET | Colorado 5 (House) | Tilt R 66% → Toss-up R 65% | pending |
| Nov 1, 11:08 AM ET | Minnesota 1 (House) | Tilt R 65.0% → Toss-up R 65.0% | pending |
| Nov 1, 11:08 AM ET | Missouri 2 (House) | Toss-up R 57% → Toss-up 50% | pending |
| Nov 1, 3:09 PM ET | Colorado 5 (House) | Toss-up R 65.0% → Tilt R 65.0% | pending |
| Nov 1, 5:05 PM ET | Kansas Senate | Toss-up D 52% → Toss-up R 50% | pending |
| Nov 1, 5:05 PM ET | Michigan Senate | Likely D 92% → Lean D 84% | pending |
| Nov 1, 8:36 PM ET | Kansas Senate | Toss-up R 50% → Toss-up D 54% | pending |
| Nov 1, 8:36 PM ET | Maine Senate | Tilt D 74% → Lean D 76% | pending |
| Nov 1, 8:36 PM ET | Michigan Senate | Lean D 84% → Likely D 87% | pending |
| Nov 1, 10:39 PM ET | Louisiana Senate | Likely R 85.3% → Lean R 84.6% | pending |
| Nov 1, 10:39 PM ET | Montana Senate | Lean R 76% → Tilt R 74% | pending |
| Nov 1, 10:40 PM ET | Colorado 5 (House) | Tilt R 65% → Toss-up R 64% | pending |
| Nov 1, 10:40 PM ET | Florida 22 (House) | Toss-up D 65.0% → Tilt D 65.0% | hurt |
| Nov 1, 10:40 PM ET | Texas 23 (House) | Toss-up 50% → Toss-up D 51% | pending |
| Nov 2, 12:39 AM ET | Iowa Senate | Toss-up D 64% → Tilt D 65% | pending |
| Nov 2, 12:39 AM ET | Louisiana Senate | Lean R 85% → Likely R 86% | pending |
| Nov 2, 12:39 AM ET | Montana Senate | Tilt R 75% → Lean R 76% | pending |
| Nov 2, 12:40 AM ET | California 48 (House) | Lean D 84% → Likely D 85% | pending |
| Nov 2, 12:40 AM ET | Michigan 8 (House) | Likely D 95.0% → Solid/Safe D 95.0% | pending |
| Nov 2, 12:40 AM ET | Missouri 2 (House) | Toss-up 50% → Toss-up R 58% | pending |
| Nov 2, 12:40 AM ET | North Carolina 9 (House) | Likely R 94% → Solid/Safe R 95% | pending |
| Nov 2, 12:40 AM ET | North Carolina 11 (House) | Lean D 85.0% → Likely D 85.0% | hurt |
| Nov 2, 12:40 AM ET | Nevada 4 (House) | Likely D 95.0% → Solid/Safe D 95.0% | pending |
| Nov 2, 12:40 AM ET | New York 2 (House) | Likely R 94% → Solid/Safe R 95% | pending |
| Nov 2, 12:40 AM ET | Ohio 1 (House) | Likely D 95.0% → Solid/Safe D 95.0% | pending |
| Nov 2, 12:40 AM ET | Texas 15 (House) | Toss-up R 64% → Tilt R 66% | pending |
| Nov 2, 12:41 AM ET | Colorado governor | Likely D 94.8% → Solid/Safe D 95.0% | pending |
| Nov 2, 12:41 AM ET | Florida governor | Lean R 84% → Likely R 86% | helped |
| Nov 2, 12:41 AM ET | Oregon governor | Tilt D 74% → Lean D 76% | pending |
| Nov 2, 1:08 PM ET | Iowa Senate | Tilt D 66% → Toss-up D 65% | pending |
| Nov 2, 1:09 PM ET | Alaska at-large (House) | Lean R 77% → Tilt R 74% | pending |
| Nov 2, 1:09 PM ET | Michigan 1 (House) | Solid/Safe R 96% → Likely R 95% | pending |
| Nov 2, 1:09 PM ET | North Carolina 9 (House) | Solid/Safe R 95% → Likely R 94% | pending |
| Nov 2, 1:09 PM ET | New Jersey 2 (House) | Solid/Safe R 96% → Likely R 93% | pending |
| Nov 2, 1:09 PM ET | Ohio 7 (House) | Tilt R 66% → Toss-up R 64% | pending |
| Nov 2, 1:09 PM ET | Ohio 10 (House) | Likely R 85% → Lean R 82% | pending |
| Nov 2, 1:09 PM ET | Ohio 15 (House) | Likely R 86% → Lean R 82% | pending |
| Nov 2, 1:09 PM ET | Texas 15 (House) | Tilt R 66% → Toss-up R 64% | pending |
| Nov 2, 1:39 PM ET | Texas 15 (House) | Toss-up R 64% → Toss-up D 60% | pending |
| Nov 2, 5:38 PM ET | California 7 (House) | Solid/Safe R 56% → Solid/Safe D 63% | pending |
| Nov 2, 7:08 PM ET | Florida Senate | Lean R 83% → Likely R 85% | helped |
| Nov 2, 7:08 PM ET | Maine Senate | Lean D 76% → Tilt D 72% | pending |
| Nov 2, 7:10 PM ET | Michigan 1 (House) | Likely R 95.0% → Solid/Safe R 95.0% | pending |
| Nov 2, 7:10 PM ET | Minnesota 1 (House) | Toss-up R 65.0% → Tilt R 65.0% | pending |
| Nov 2, 7:10 PM ET | Missouri 2 (House) | Toss-up R 58% → Tilt R 66% | pending |
| Nov 2, 7:10 PM ET | Ohio 7 (House) | Toss-up R 65.0% → Tilt R 65.0% | pending |
| Nov 2, 7:11 PM ET | Georgia governor | Toss-up R 53% → Toss-up D 51% | pending |
| Nov 2, 7:38 PM ET | Iowa Senate | Toss-up D 63% → Tilt D 66% | pending |
| Nov 2, 11:36 PM ET | Maine Senate | Tilt D 72% → Lean D 76% | pending |
| Nov 3, 12:38 AM ET | Florida Senate | Likely R 86% → Lean R 83% | hurt |
| Nov 3, 12:40 AM ET | Florida 2 (House) | Lean R 84% → Likely R 87% | pending |
| Nov 3, 12:40 AM ET | North Carolina 3 (House) | Likely R 95.0% → Solid/Safe R 95.0% | pending |
| Nov 3, 12:40 AM ET | New Hampshire 1 (House) | Likely D 95.0% → Solid/Safe D 95.0% | hurt |
| Nov 3, 12:40 AM ET | New Jersey 9 (House) | Likely D 95.0% → Solid/Safe D 95.0% | pending |
| Nov 3, 12:40 AM ET | New York 21 (House) | Toss-up R 65% → Tilt R 66% | pending |
| Nov 3, 12:40 AM ET | Texas 10 (House) | Likely R 94% → Solid/Safe R 95% | pending |
| Nov 3, 12:40 AM ET | Texas 22 (House) | Likely R 95% → Solid/Safe R 96% | pending |
| Nov 3, 12:40 AM ET | Texas 32 (House) | Likely R 94% → Solid/Safe R 96% | pending |
| Nov 3, 12:41 AM ET | Kansas governor | Tilt R 74.7% → Lean R 75.0% | pending |
| Nov 3, 12:41 AM ET | New Hampshire governor | Likely R 94% → Solid/Safe R 96% | pending |
| Nov 3, 12:41 AM ET | Texas governor | Lean R 79% → Tilt R 74% | pending |
| Nov 3, 12:38 PM ET | Tennessee governor | Solid/Safe R 96% → Likely R 94% | pending |
Every battleground
All 100 it rated
| Race | Forecast | Call | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Alaska governor | Lean D · D 80% | D | Not yet called |
| Arizona governor | Likely D · D 90% | D | Not yet called |
| Florida governor | Likely R · R 88% | R ✓ | R Republican hold · called Nov 3, 8:33 PM ET |
| Georgia governor | Toss Up · D 51% | Toss-up | Not yet called |
| Iowa governor | Likely D · D 90% | D | Not yet called |
| Kansas governor | Lean R · R 75% | R | Not yet called |
| Michigan governor | Likely D · D 89% | D | Not yet called |
| Nebraska governor | Lean R · R 77% | R | Not yet called |
| Nevada governor | Toss Up · R 56% | Toss-up | Not yet called |
| Ohio governor | Lean D · D 83% | D | Not yet called |
| Oregon governor | Lean D · D 78% | D | Not yet called |
| Texas governor | Tilt R · R 74% | R | Not yet called |
| Vermont governor | Lean R · R 85% | R | Not yet called |
| Wisconsin governor | Toss Up · D 65% | Toss-up | Not yet called |
| Alaska at-large (House) | Tilt R · R 70% | R | Not yet called |
| Alabama 2 (House) | Lean R · R 80% | R | Not yet called |
| Arizona 1 (House) | Tilt D · D 74% | D | Not yet called |
| Arizona 2 (House) | Lean R · R 83% | R | Not yet called |
| Arizona 6 (House) | Likely D · D 87% | D | Not yet called |
| California 13 (House) | Likely D · D 92% | D | Not yet called |
| California 22 (House) | Likely D · D 86% | D | Not yet called |
| California 48 (House) | Likely D · D 87% | D | Not yet called |
| Colorado 3 (House) | Likely R · R 91% | R | Not yet called |
| Colorado 4 (House) | Lean R · R 84% | R | Not yet called |
| Colorado 5 (House) | Tossup · R 62% | Toss-up | Not yet called |
| Colorado 8 (House) | Lean D · D 80% | D | Not yet called |
| Florida 4 (House) | Safe R · R 98% | R | Not yet called |
| Florida 7 (House) | Tossup · R 60% | Toss-up | Not yet called |
| Florida 9 (House) | Tossup · D 50% | Toss-up | Not yet called |
| Florida 13 (House) | Likely R · R 87% | R | Not yet called |
| Florida 14 (House) | Lean D · D 83% | D ✓ | D Democrat hold · called Nov 3, 7:52 PM ET |
| Florida 16 (House) | Lean R · R 83% | R | Not yet called |
| Florida 22 (House) | Tilt D · D 69% | D ✓ | D Democrat hold · called Nov 3, 8:12 PM ET |
| Florida 25 (House) | Lean D · D 82% | D ✓ | D Democrat hold · called Nov 3, 8:04 PM ET |
| Florida 27 (House) | Likely R · R 89% | R | Not yet called |
| Iowa 1 (House) | Tossup · D 64% | Toss-up | Not yet called |
| Iowa 2 (House) | Tossup · D 54% | Toss-up | Not yet called |
| Iowa 3 (House) | Tilt D · D 72% | D | Not yet called |
| Kentucky 6 (House) | Tossup · R 57% | Toss-up | Not yet called |
| Maine 2 (House) | Tilt R · R 71% | R | Not yet called |
| Michigan 4 (House) | Tossup · R 59% | Toss-up | Not yet called |
| Michigan 7 (House) | Tilt D · D 66% | D | Not yet called |
| Michigan 10 (House) | Tossup · R 52% | Toss-up | Not yet called |
| Minnesota 1 (House) | Tilt R · R 66% | R | Not yet called |
| Missouri 2 (House) | Tilt R · R 66% | R | Not yet called |
| Montana 1 (House) | Tossup · D 57% | Toss-up | Not yet called |
| North Carolina 1 (House) | Lean D · D 80% | D | Not yet called |
| North Carolina 3 (House) | Safe R · R 95% | R | Not yet called |
| North Carolina 11 (House) | Likely D · D 86% | D ✓ | D Democrat flip · called Nov 3, 8:34 PM ET |
| Nebraska 2 (House) | Likely D · D 93% | D | Not yet called |
| New Hampshire 1 (House) | Safe D · D 95% | D ✓ | D Democrat hold · called Nov 3, 8:04 PM ET |
| New Jersey 2 (House) | Likely R · R 93% | R | Not yet called |
| New Jersey 7 (House) | Likely D · D 88% | D | Not yet called |
| New Mexico 2 (House) | Likely D · D 89% | D | Not yet called |
| Nevada 1 (House) | Likely D · D 91% | D | Not yet called |
| Nevada 2 (House) | Lean R · R 79% | R | Not yet called |
| Nevada 3 (House) | Safe D · D 95% | D | Not yet called |
| New York 1 (House) | Lean R · R 84% | R | Not yet called |
| New York 3 (House) | Likely D · D 91% | D | Not yet called |
| New York 4 (House) | Safe D · D 95% | D | Not yet called |
| New York 17 (House) | Tilt D · D 66% | D | Not yet called |
| New York 21 (House) | Tilt R · R 66% | R | Not yet called |
| Ohio 1 (House) | Safe D · D 95% | D | Not yet called |
| Ohio 7 (House) | Tilt R · R 66% | R | Not yet called |
| Ohio 9 (House) | Lean D · D 85% | D | Not yet called |
| Ohio 10 (House) | Lean R · R 82% | R | Not yet called |
| Ohio 15 (House) | Lean R · R 83% | R | Not yet called |
| Pennsylvania 1 (House) | Tossup · R 55% | Toss-up | Not yet called |
| Pennsylvania 7 (House) | Lean D · D 81% | D | Not yet called |
| Pennsylvania 8 (House) | Tilt D · D 72% | D | Not yet called |
| Pennsylvania 10 (House) | Tossup · D 63% | Toss-up | Not yet called |
| South Carolina 1 (House) | Tossup · R 58% | Toss-up | Not yet called |
| Tennessee 5 (House) | Lean R · R 78% | R | Not yet called |
| Tennessee 9 (House) | Tilt R · R 71% | R | Not yet called |
| Texas 9 (House) | Likely R · R 91% | R | Not yet called |
| Texas 15 (House) | Tossup · D 60% | Toss-up | Not yet called |
| Texas 23 (House) | Tossup · D 51% | Toss-up | Not yet called |
| Texas 28 (House) | Likely D · D 92% | D | Not yet called |
| Texas 34 (House) | Tossup · R 51% | Toss-up | Not yet called |
| Texas 35 (House) | Tossup · D 64% | Toss-up | Not yet called |
| Virginia 1 (House) | Tossup · D 52% | Toss-up | Not yet called |
| Virginia 2 (House) | Lean D · D 85% | D | Not yet called |
| Virginia 5 (House) | Lean R · R 77% | R | Not yet called |
| Washington 3 (House) | Lean D · D 84% | D | Not yet called |
| Wisconsin 1 (House) | Lean R · R 81% | R | Not yet called |
| Wisconsin 3 (House) | Tossup · D 64% | Toss-up | Not yet called |
| Alaska Senate | Toss Up · D 64% | Toss-up | Not yet called |
| Florida Senate | Lean R · R 83% | R ✓ | R Republican hold · called Nov 3, 8:03 PM ET |
| Iowa Senate | Tilt D · D 65% | D | Not yet called |
| Kansas Senate | Toss Up · D 63% | Toss-up | Not yet called |
| Maine Senate | Lean D · D 76% | D | Not yet called |
| Michigan Senate | Likely D · D 88% | D | Not yet called |
| Minnesota Senate | Safe D · D 98% | D | Not yet called |
| Montana Senate | Lean R · R 78% | R | Not yet called |
| North Carolina Senate | Safe D · D 98% | D | Not yet called |
| Nebraska Senate | Lean R · R 79% | R | Not yet called |
| New Hampshire Senate | Likely D · D 92% | D | Not yet called |
| Ohio Senate | Tilt D · D 69% | D | Not yet called |
| South Carolina Senate | Toss Up · R 60% | Toss-up | Not yet called |
| Texas Senate | Lean D · D 81% | D | Not yet called |
Hunchmeter also grades NFL expert picks every week: 333 experts from 91 outlets, 12,575 picks graded this season. NFL leaderboard · This week's NFL picks · Pick your experts