House · Alaska · Before the vote

Alaska At-Large District (AK-AL): what the forecasters say

Nick Begich (R) vs Bill Hill (I) · candidates as listed by DDHQ / The Hill

The seat is held by a Republican. Inside Elections, FiftyPlusOne, DDHQ / The Hill and Race to the WH favor the Republican. They lean the same way, but at least one rates the race close, so it is graded as a battleground. 3 rating changes caught since Oct 21, the latest Oct 31, 2:08 PM ET.

Result: after Nov 3. Once the race is called, the result appears on this page, and each forecaster’s final rating, sealed before the polls close, is graded under the published rules.

✓ Sealed Nov 1, 5:10 AM ET · Verify

Right now

Each forecaster’s current rating

The latest rating each outlet has published, as recorded and sealed Nov 1, 5:10 AM ET. Ratings are shown in each outlet’s own words.

Forecaster	Rating	Side	As of	Source
Inside Elections	Likely Republican	R Likely	Dec 5, 2025	Their House forecast →
FiftyPlusOne	Lean Rep	R Lean	recorded Nov 1, 5:10 AM ET	Their House forecast →
DDHQ / The Hill	Likely R	R Likely	Oct 14	Their House forecast →
Race to the WH	Lean R	R Lean	Oct 31	Their House forecast →

Rating history

Changes since Oct 21 (3)

A change of rating, of favorite, or of a model’s lean across 50%. Each change is sealed with the time we first saw it. Chances are rounded, so a rating can change while the number stays the same.

When we saw it	Forecaster	From → to
Oct 31, 2:08 PM ET	Race to the WH	Likely R 86% → Lean R 85% (toward D)
Oct 24, 12:11 PM ET	FiftyPlusOne	Toss-up R 59.9% → Lean R 60.0% (toward R)
Oct 23, 2:05 PM ET	FiftyPlusOne	Lean R 61% → Toss-up R 60% (toward D)

No change since Oct 21: Inside Elections and DDHQ / The Hill.

Inside Elections dates its rating here Dec 5, 2025, by its own date column: the rating has not changed since then. Our record shows no change since Oct 21.

Same state

Other battlegrounds in Alaska

Alaska Senate
Mary Peltola (D) vs Dan Sullivan (R)
Alaska governor
Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins (D) vs Bernadette Wilson (R)

How this race will be graded

Every forecast on this page is sealed before the vote. Once the race is called, a right call earns 1 point, a Toss-up ½ and a wrong call 0, the same rule for all four. Cook, Sabato, Silver and other raters get their own table on the scoreboard.

Full rules · Check the seal · All 98 battleground races

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