NFL record badges and the picks behind them

Every Hunchmeter badge describes a specific result from a forecaster's past picks, by a published rule. 73 forecasters hold 316 badges. Each badge opens on the holder's page with the picks behind it.

Badges are facts about past picks, given by published rules. A badge is not a recommendation.

Browse current badges

Records by market

• Straight-up picks standing · R-01 · no holders yet
  Share of straight-up picks right: wins divided by wins plus losses; pushes are left out.
• Picks against the spread standing · R-02 · no holders yet
  Share of against-the-spread picks right: wins divided by wins plus losses; pushes are left out.
• Over/under picks standing · R-03 · no holders yet
  Share of over/under picks right: wins divided by wins plus losses; pushes are left out.

NFL weeks

• No.1 of the week · W-01 · no holders yet
  Among forecasters with at least 10 decided picks on a market in one NFL week (8 on totals), the first by the lower bound of the 95% Wilson interval, with at least 5 in the field, a share above the field and more wins than losses.
• Strong week · W-02 · 6 holders
  At least 10 decided picks on a market in one NFL week (8 on totals), with at least 80% right straight up, or 70% against the spread or on totals.
• Biggest upset called · W-05 · 42 holders
  Of the week's underdog wins that at least one tracked forecaster called (market chance below 40%), the least likely one.

Runs of correct picks

• Correct run · S-01 · 4 holders
  Picks right in a row on one market, in kickoff order.
• Rare run · S-03 · 2 holders
  A run of picks right that the market scored at 1 in 50 or longer: the product of each pick's market chance (straight up, from the moneyline without the bookmaker margin; against the spread and on totals, one half).

Underdogs

• Upset calls · U-01 · 36 holders
  Straight-up picks on the underdog that won outright.
• Upset Specialist (underdogs that won outright) · U-02 · 4 holders
  At least 5 straight-up underdog picks, at least 3 of them won, and at least 1.0 more wins than the market prices implied.
• Underdogs against the spread · U-04 · 1 holder
  Picks on the underdog against the spread: at least 10 decided, with a share at least 10 points above the field in the same category and more wins than losses.

Game types

• Division games · E-03 · 4 holders
  Picks in games between two teams of the same division, on one market: at least 8 decided, with a share at least 10 points above the field in the same category and more wins than losses.
• Prime-time games · E-04 · no holders yet
  Picks in games that start at 7 p.m. ET or later (Thursday, Sunday and Monday night games and other evening games), on one market: at least 6 decided, with a share at least 10 points above the field in the same category and more wins than losses.

Teams

• Team game record · T-01 · 6 holders
  Picks in one team's games on one market: at least 5 decided, the lower bound of the 95% Wilson interval above the base rate (50% against the spread and on totals; the average market chance of the picks straight up), and a share above the field in that team's games.
• Team standing · T-02 · no holders yet
  Ranking in one team's games on one market: at least 6 decided picks, ordered by the lower bound of the 95% Wilson interval, with a share above the field and more wins than losses.

Against the crowd and the market

• Right against the crowd · C-01 · 45 holders
  A game where at least 6 other tracked forecasters made a pick on the same market, at least 60% of them were wrong, and this forecaster was right.
• More right than the market implied · C-04 · no holders yet
  At least 15 straight-up picks with a market chance: wins minus the sum of the market chances is +2 or more (steps +2, +4, +8).
• Panel standing · C-06 · no holders yet
  Ranking within one outlet's panel (ESPN, CBS Sports, NFL.com, a Tallysight team site) on one market, by the lower bound of the 95% Wilson interval, with levels by the number of panelists.

Score forecasts

• Exact final score · SC-01 · 1 holder
  A predicted final score that matched the final score, overtime included, for both teams.

Market-adjusted points

• Points standing · PT-01 · no holders yet
  Market-adjusted points on one market, live record only: at least 30 scored picks (30 on totals).
• Market-adjusted points · PT-02 · 8 holders
  Market-adjusted points over the season on one market: at least 15 scored picks (10 on totals) and at least +2.0 points in total.

Favorites, form and panels

• Better than picking favorites · L-01 · 3 holders
  Straight-up picks with a market price: at least 20, and at least 2 more wins than picking the favorite in every one of the same games would have given (steps +2, +3 and +5).
• Line moved toward the pick · L-02 · no holders yet
  Picks with a known time (recorded by us or timestamped by the platform) and a market line at that moment, where the line moved before kickoff: at least 10 such picks, and in at least 60% of them the line moved toward the side picked after the pick was made.
• Consistent weeks · L-03 · 3 holders
  On one market, NFL weeks with five or more scored picks: at least 4 such weeks, and market-adjusted points above zero in at least 75% of them (3 of 4, 4 of 5, 5 of 6 and so on).
• Recent form · L-04 · 4 holders
  Market-adjusted points over the last four NFL weeks with graded picks: at least 15 scored picks (10 on totals) and at least +2.0 points, for forecasters whose record on that market starts before the window.
• Panel points leader · L-05 · no holders yet
  Within one outlet's panel (ESPN, CBS Sports, NFL.com, a Tallysight team site), live record only: panelists with at least 30 scored picks on the market (30 on totals), at least 5 of them.
• Most underdog picks · L-06 · no holders yet
  Straight-up picks on the underdog (the side the no-margin price at the time made less likely to win), live record only: among forecasters with at least 30 scored straight-up picks, at least 5 in the field, the most underdog picks, at least 5.

Record keeping

• Recorded before kickoff · D-01 · no holders yet
  The number of graded picks we recorded on the outlet's page before kickoff.
• Timestamped record · D-02 · 56 holders
  The number of graded picks whose time before kickoff was set by the publishing platform or shown by a web archive copy; we saw these picks later.

Profile line

• Best call · X-01 · 63 holders
  One per forecaster, shown on the profile: the correct straight-up pick with the lowest market chance (below 50%).

Outlets

• Panel record when most agreed · O-01 · no holders yet
  Outlet pages only. In games where at least 3 panelists picked, the side most of the panel took, graded on one market: at least 30 games, with a share at least 5 points above the average of the outlets.

Data as of Oct 14, 2026, 01:18 UTC. Badge count: 73 forecasters with five or more graded picks we can use. Rules version usa-1.1: 64 kinds defined, 31 shown.