Badge rules

Biggest upset called

Badges are facts about past picks, given by published rules. A badge is not a recommendation.

The rule

Of the week's underdog wins that at least one tracked forecaster called (market chance below 40%), the least likely one. Everyone who picked that team straight up gets the badge, shown with how many made the call. Given after the week's last game and kept with its date.

Holders now: 42
Window: NFL week

Picks that count. Picks we recorded before kickoff; picks whose time before kickoff was set by the publishing platform (timestamped by the publishing platform) or shown by a web archive copy of the page (archive record); and, for ESPN, CBS Sports and NFL.com, picks read after the game where the outlet's own published record for that expert matches our recount (per the outlet's published record). Any other pick read after the game can only lower a record, and any known loss ends a run.

Holders

This is a week badge: it is given after the week's last game and kept with its date. Holders are listed by week below.

By week

NFL Week 5, 2026. Given after the week's last game.
Holder	Badge	Since	Share
Barry Shuck Dawgs By Nature	Biggest upset called · Week 5 · BUF over LAR · market 38.8% · called by 35 of 78 Recorded before kickoff	Week 5	Card
Mark Schofield SB Nation	Biggest upset called · Week 5 · BUF over LAR · market 38.8% · called by 35 of 78 Recorded before kickoff	Week 5	Card
Jeremy Reisman Pride of Detroit	Biggest upset called · Week 5 · BUF over LAR · market 38.8% · called by 35 of 78 Recorded before kickoff	Week 5	Card
Christopher Gates Daily Norseman	Biggest upset called · Week 5 · BUF over LAR · market 38.8% · called by 35 of 78 Recorded before kickoff	Week 5	Card
James Dator SB Nation	Biggest upset called · Week 5 · BUF over LAR · market 38.8% · called by 35 of 78 Recorded before kickoff	Week 5	Card
Ray Aspuria Silver And Black Pride	Biggest upset called · Week 5 · BUF over LAR · market 38.8% · called by 35 of 78 Recorded before kickoff	Week 5	Card
Mike Clay ESPN	Biggest upset called · Week 5 · BUF over LAR · market 38.8% · called by 35 of 78 Recorded before kickoff	Week 5	Card
Gennaro Filice NFL.com	Biggest upset called · Week 5 · BUF over LAR · market 38.8% · called by 35 of 78 Recorded before kickoff	Week 5	Card
R.J. Ochoa SB Nation	Biggest upset called · Week 5 · BUF over LAR · market 38.8% · called by 35 of 78 Recorded before kickoff	Week 5	Card
Matt Holder Silver And Black Pride	Biggest upset called · Week 5 · BUF over LAR · market 38.8% · called by 35 of 78 Recorded before kickoff	Week 5	Card
Jared Mueller SB Nation	Biggest upset called · Week 5 · BUF over LAR · market 38.8% · called by 35 of 78 Recorded before kickoff	Week 5	Card
Ezweav Dawgs By Nature	Biggest upset called · Week 5 · BUF over LAR · market 38.8% · called by 35 of 78 Recorded before kickoff	Week 5	Card
Ben Natan Bleeding Green Nation	Biggest upset called · Week 5 · BUF over LAR · market 38.8% · called by 35 of 78 Recorded before kickoff	Week 5	Card
Albert Breer Sports Illustrated	Biggest upset called · Week 5 · BUF over LAR · market 38.8% · called by 35 of 78 Recorded before kickoff	Week 5	Card
Anthony Balaj Pride of Detroit	Biggest upset called · Week 5 · BUF over LAR · market 38.8% · called by 35 of 78 Recorded before kickoff	Week 5	Card
Dan Graziano ESPN	Biggest upset called · Week 5 · BUF over LAR · market 38.8% · called by 35 of 78 Recorded before kickoff	Week 5	Card
Kalyn Kahler ESPN	Biggest upset called · Week 5 · BUF over LAR · market 38.8% · called by 35 of 78 Recorded before kickoff	Week 5	Card
Mitch Goldich Sports Illustrated	Biggest upset called · Week 5 · BUF over LAR · market 38.8% · called by 35 of 78 Recorded before kickoff	Week 5	Card
justin Pratt Gridiron Experts	Biggest upset called · Week 5 · BUF over LAR · market 38.8% · called by 35 of 78 Recorded before kickoff	Week 5	Card
Warren Ludford Daily Norseman	Biggest upset called · Week 5 · BUF over LAR · market 38.8% · called by 35 of 78 Recorded before kickoff	Week 5	Card
Sam Buegler Daily Norseman	Biggest upset called · Week 5 · BUF over LAR · market 38.8% · called by 35 of 78 Recorded before kickoff	Week 5	Card
Shawn C Daily Norseman	Biggest upset called · Week 5 · BUF over LAR · market 38.8% · called by 35 of 78 Recorded before kickoff	Week 5	Card
Mookie Alexander SB Nation	Biggest upset called · Week 5 · BUF over LAR · market 38.8% · called by 35 of 78 Recorded before kickoff	Week 5	Card
Jared Mueller Dawgs By Nature	Biggest upset called · Week 5 · BUF over LAR · market 38.8% · called by 35 of 78 Recorded before kickoff	Week 5	Card
Ryan Wilson CBS Sports	Biggest upset called · Week 5 · BUF over LAR · market 38.8% · called by 35 of 78 Matches the outlet's published record	Week 5	Card
Matthew Warren SB Nation	Biggest upset called · Week 5 · BUF over LAR · market 38.8% · called by 35 of 78 Recorded before kickoff	Week 5	Card
Bill Williamson Silver And Black Pride	Biggest upset called · Week 5 · BUF over LAR · market 38.8% · called by 35 of 78 Recorded before kickoff	Week 5	Card
Ricky O'Donnell SB Nation	Biggest upset called · Week 5 · BUF over LAR · market 38.8% · called by 35 of 78 Recorded before kickoff	Week 5	Card
Matt Bowen ESPN	Biggest upset called · Week 5 · BUF over LAR · market 38.8% · called by 35 of 78 Recorded before kickoff	Week 5	Card
Bobby Kownack NFL.com	Biggest upset called · Week 5 · BUF over LAR · market 38.8% · called by 35 of 78 Recorded before kickoff	Week 5	Card
John Whiticar Pride of Detroit	Biggest upset called · Week 5 · BUF over LAR · market 38.8% · called by 35 of 78 Recorded before kickoff	Week 5	Card
Erik Schlitt Pride of Detroit	Biggest upset called · Week 5 · BUF over LAR · market 38.8% · called by 35 of 78 Recorded before kickoff	Week 5	Card
Eva Geitheim Sports Illustrated	Biggest upset called · Week 5 · BUF over LAR · market 38.8% · called by 35 of 78 Recorded before kickoff	Week 5	Card
Dave Mangels Bleeding Green Nation	Biggest upset called · Week 5 · BUF over LAR · market 38.8% · called by 35 of 78 Recorded before kickoff	Week 5	Card
Alexis Chassen Bleeding Green Nation	Biggest upset called · Week 5 · BUF over LAR · market 38.8% · called by 35 of 78 Recorded before kickoff	Week 5	Card

NFL Week 4, 2026. Given after the week's last game.
Holder	Badge	Since	Share
Kalyn Kahler ESPN	Biggest upset called · Week 4 · CAR over DET · market 38.2% · called by 2 of 26 Timestamped before kickoff (web archive copy)	Week 4	Card

NFL Week 3, 2026. Given after the week's last game.
Holder	Badge	Since	Share
Dave Richard CBS Sports	Biggest upset called · Week 3 · ATL over GB · market 32.1% · called by 1 of 23 Matches the outlet's published record	Week 3	Card

NFL Week 2, 2026. Given after the week's last game.
Holder	Badge	Since	Share
Dan Graziano ESPN	Biggest upset called · Week 2 · LV over LAC · market 27.4% · called by 3 of 23 Matches the outlet's published record	Week 2	Card
Dave Richard CBS Sports	Biggest upset called · Week 2 · LV over LAC · market 27.4% · called by 3 of 23 Matches the outlet's published record	Week 2	Card
Jason Reid ESPN	Biggest upset called · Week 2 · LV over LAC · market 27.4% · called by 3 of 23 Matches the outlet's published record	Week 2	Card

NFL Week 1, 2026. Given after the week's last game.
Holder	Badge	Since	Share
Bobby Kownack NFL.com	Biggest upset called · Week 1 · SF over LAR · market 36.1% · called by 8 of 23 Timestamped before kickoff (web archive copy)	Week 1	Card
Dave Richard CBS Sports	Biggest upset called · Week 1 · SF over LAR · market 36.1% · called by 8 of 23 Matches the outlet's published record	Week 1	Card
Tyler Sullivan CBS Sports	Biggest upset called · Week 1 · SF over LAR · market 36.1% · called by 8 of 23 Matches the outlet's published record	Week 1	Card
Jeremy Fowler ESPN	Biggest upset called · Week 1 · SF over LAR · market 36.1% · called by 8 of 23 Matches the outlet's published record	Week 1	Card
Dan Graziano ESPN	Biggest upset called · Week 1 · SF over LAR · market 36.1% · called by 8 of 23 Matches the outlet's published record	Week 1	Card
Brooke Cersosimo NFL.com	Biggest upset called · Week 1 · SF over LAR · market 36.1% · called by 8 of 23 Timestamped before kickoff (web archive copy)	Week 1	Card
Seth Wickersham ESPN	Biggest upset called · Week 1 · SF over LAR · market 36.1% · called by 8 of 23 Matches the outlet's published record	Week 1	Card
Pamela Maldonado ESPN	Biggest upset called · Week 1 · SF over LAR · market 36.1% · called by 8 of 23 Timestamped before kickoff (web archive copy)	Week 1	Card

How common

Held now by 42 of the 73 forecasters in the badge count.

Our chance check (Oct 12, 2026): the same picks, with every game's score drawn again at random around the market line, 40 times. If a badge shows up about as often by chance as in the real record, it is a fact about the past, not a sign of skill.

Chance check: 12 of 41 qualifying forecasters held it in the real record; with every score drawn again at random around the market line, 7.1 on average (≈1 in 6 gets it by chance).Oct 13, 2026, 40 runs; picks recorded or timestamped before kickoff. Filled dot — real record, open circle — chance. Holders now are listed above.

Show as table

Every variant and data layer of the chance check.
Variant	Picks used	Qualifying	Held, real record	Held by chance, average
Biggest upset called	picks recorded or timestamped before kickoff	41	12	7.1
Biggest upset called	all picks, including those read after the game	82	26	19.2

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