Los Angeles Times · NFL 2026 · week 5
Sam Farmer's 2026 NFL picks and record
9–5–1
Straight up · 9 wins · 5 losses · 1 tie
Week 6 picks not recorded yet · last checked Oct 14, 5:19 p.m. ET
View every pickRecord so far
Sam Farmer is straight up 9-5-1 (64.3%) and against the spread 8-7-0 (53.3%).
- Straight up
- 9-5-164.3% of 14 decided · 95% range 39–84%
- Against the spread
- 8-7-053.3% of 15 decided · 95% range 30–75%
- Longest run, straight up
- 7wins in a row this season
- Longest run, ATS
- 6wins in a row this season
Market-adjusted points Pick results adjusted for market odds.
- Against the spread, 2026 season: +1.0 points 15 picks scored · 0 with recorded odds, 15 at assumed even odds · The estimated range includes zero; 8-7 (53.3%); a coin flip averages 50%.
Each pick counts as a 1-point play at the no-margin market price; zero is the expected score if market probabilities are accurate. Compare all pick types · How these points are calculated
30 graded picks added from Los Angeles Times pages after the games.
Market-adjusted results
Three numbers for each market: the record, market-adjusted points and a simple rule to compare with. Points count each pick as if it were a 1-point play at the market price at the time of the pick (for picks added after the game, the price at the start of that NFL week), with the bookmaker margin taken out: a win adds what that price paid (more for an underdog, less for a favorite), a loss takes away 1 point, a push counts 0. Zero is the expected score if market probabilities are accurate. How we score fairly
| Market and period | Record in these picks | Market-adjusted points | Simple rule |
|---|---|---|---|
| Straight up 2026 season | 4-4-1 | −0.3 points 9 picks scored · 9 of 15 with recorded odds | Every favorite: 4-4-1 same 9 games |
| Against the spread 2026 season | 8-7 | +1.0 points 15 picks scored · 0 with recorded odds, 15 at assumed even odds +0.07 per pick · 95% range −0.47 to +0.60 per pick | Coin flip: 50% 7.5 of 15 decided |
- Sam Farmer-0.3 vs -1.0 favorites
Teal: the expert's market-adjusted points. Grey: picking every favorite in the same games, scored the same way. Zero is the expected score if market probabilities are accurate.
Every pick
Week 5 · SU 9-5-1; ATS 8-7-0
| Game | Straight up | Against the spread | Final | Predicted score | How we got it |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TB at DAL Thu, Oct 8 | DAL Loss | DAL -8.5 Loss | TB 24, DAL 16 | DAL 28-13 | Added after the game |
| PHI at JAX Sun, Oct 11 | JAX Win | PHI +7 Win | PHI 17, JAX 19 | JAX 27-23 | Added after the game |
| CHI at GB Sun, Oct 11 | CHI Loss | CHI -2.5 Loss | CHI 7, GB 31 | CHI 30-20 | Added after the game |
| CIN at MIA Sun, Oct 11 | CIN Win | CIN -7.5 Loss | CIN 31, MIA 24 | CIN 31-20 | Added after the game |
| CLE at NYJ Sun, Oct 11 | CLE Loss | CLE +1.5 Loss | CLE 12, NYJ 17 | CLE 27-21 | Added after the game |
| HOU at TEN Sun, Oct 11 | HOU Win | HOU -7 Win | HOU 26, TEN 3 | HOU 27-17 | Added after the game |
| IND at PIT Sun, Oct 11 | PIT Win | PIT -2.5 Win | IND 22, PIT 34 | PIT 23-20 | Added after the game |
| LV at NE Sun, Oct 11 | NE Win | NE -3.5 Win | LV 17, NE 45 | NE 26-20 | Added after the game |
| MIN at NO Sun, Oct 11 | MIN Win | MIN -1.5 Win | MIN 23, NO 13 | MIN 24-20 | Added after the game |
| NYG at WSH Sun, Oct 11 | NYG Push | NYG +3.5 Win | NYG 27, WSH 27 | NYG 28-23 | Added after the game |
| DEN at LAC Sun, Oct 11 | DEN Win | DEN -3.5 Win | DEN 23, LAC 17 | DEN 24-17 | Added after the game |
| DET at ARI Sun, Oct 11 | DET Win | ARI +5.5 Loss | DET 45, ARI 21 | DET 31-27 | Added after the game |
| SF at SEA Sun, Oct 11 | SF Win | SF +3 Win | SF 32, SEA 29 | SF 27-23 | Added after the game |
| BAL at ATL Sun, Oct 11 | ATL Loss | ATL -3 Loss | BAL 30, ATL 23 | ATL 30-24 | Added after the game |
| BUF at LAR Mon, Oct 12 | LAR Loss | LAR -3 Loss | BUF 37, LAR 34 | LAR 27-23 | Added after the game |
By week
| Week | Straight up | Against the spread |
|---|---|---|
| Week 5 | 9-5-1 | 8-7-0 |
| Season | 9-5-1 | 8-7-0 |
Does this match Los Angeles Times?
Los Angeles Times does not print a running record or per-pick marks that we can check against yet. Our count comes from the picks and the final scores alone.
By team
Record when picking each team
| Team | Picked to win | Picked to lose | ATS on them | ATS against |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ARI Arizona Cardinals | — | 1-0-0 | 0-1-0 | — |
| ATL Atlanta Falcons | 0-1-0 | — | 0-1-0 | — |
| BAL Baltimore Ravens | — | 0-1-0 | — | 0-1-0 |
| BUF Buffalo Bills | — | 0-1-0 | — | 0-1-0 |
| CHI Chicago Bears | 0-1-0 | — | 0-1-0 | — |
| CIN Cincinnati Bengals | 1-0-0 | — | 0-1-0 | — |
| CLE Cleveland Browns | 0-1-0 | — | 0-1-0 | — |
| DAL Dallas Cowboys | 0-1-0 | — | 0-1-0 | — |
| DEN Denver Broncos | 1-0-0 | — | 1-0-0 | — |
| DET Detroit Lions | 1-0-0 | — | — | 0-1-0 |
| GB Green Bay Packers | — | 0-1-0 | — | 0-1-0 |
| HOU Houston Texans | 1-0-0 | — | 1-0-0 | — |
| IND Indianapolis Colts | — | 1-0-0 | — | 1-0-0 |
| JAX Jacksonville Jaguars | 1-0-0 | — | — | 1-0-0 |
| LV Las Vegas Raiders | — | 1-0-0 | — | 1-0-0 |
| LAC Los Angeles Chargers | — | 1-0-0 | — | 1-0-0 |
| LAR Los Angeles Rams | 0-1-0 | — | 0-1-0 | — |
| MIA Miami Dolphins | — | 1-0-0 | — | 0-1-0 |
| MIN Minnesota Vikings | 1-0-0 | — | 1-0-0 | — |
| NE New England Patriots | 1-0-0 | — | 1-0-0 | — |
| NO New Orleans Saints | — | 1-0-0 | — | 1-0-0 |
| NYG New York Giants | 0-0-1 | — | 1-0-0 | — |
| NYJ New York Jets | — | 0-1-0 | — | 0-1-0 |
| PHI Philadelphia Eagles | — | 1-0-0 | 1-0-0 | — |
| PIT Pittsburgh Steelers | 1-0-0 | — | 1-0-0 | — |
| SF San Francisco 49ers | 1-0-0 | — | 1-0-0 | — |
| SEA Seattle Seahawks | — | 1-0-0 | — | 1-0-0 |
| TB Tampa Bay Buccaneers | — | 0-1-0 | — | 0-1-0 |
| TEN Tennessee Titans | — | 1-0-0 | — | 1-0-0 |
| WSH Washington Commanders | — | 0-0-1 | — | 1-0-0 |