Badge rules
No.1 of the week
Badges are facts about past picks, given by published rules. A badge is not a recommendation.
The rule
Among forecasters with at least 10 decided picks on a market in one NFL week (8 on totals), the first by the lower bound of the 95% Wilson interval, with at least 5 in the field, a share above the field and more wins than losses. Up to three level at the top are Joint No.1; four or more level share the top record only if they are no more than a quarter of the field. Given after the week's last game and kept with its date.
- Holders now
- 0
- Window
- NFL week
Picks that count. The live record only: picks we recorded before kickoff, from Week 6 of 2026 on. A pick read from an outlet's page after the game can only lower a record here: it adds to the total but never counts as a win.
Holders
No tracked forecaster holds this badge yet. Levels start once the live record (from Week 6) has enough graded picks.
How common
Held now by 0 of the 73 forecasters in the badge count.
Our chance check (Oct 12, 2026): the same picks, with every game's score drawn again at random around the market line, 40 times. If a badge shows up about as often by chance as in the real record, it is a fact about the past, not a sign of skill.
Show as table
| Variant | Picks used | Qualifying | Held, real record | Held by chance, average |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ATS · levels | picks recorded or timestamped before kickoff | 16 | 1 | 1.3 |
| ATS · levels | all picks, including those read after the game | 28 | 4 | 5.8 |
| ATS · shared | all picks, including those read after the game | 12 | 0 | 0 |
| O/U · levels | picks recorded or timestamped before kickoff | 8 | 1 | 1.3 |
| O/U · levels | all picks, including those read after the game | 8 | 1 | 1.3 |
| SU · levels | picks recorded or timestamped before kickoff | 41 | 0 | 1.2 |
| SU · levels | all picks, including those read after the game | 81 | 9 | 5.8 |
| SU · shared | picks recorded or timestamped before kickoff | 40 | 0 | 0.9 |
