Gridiron Experts · NFL 2026 · week 5
justin Pratt's 2026 NFL picks and record
28 picks timestamped before kickoff · publishing platform Timestamped before kickoff (platform)Best call: BUF over LAR · Week 5 · market 38.8% Recorded before kickoff
10–4–1
Straight up · 10 wins · 4 losses · 1 tie
How these picks were recorded · 30 picks
- 2 Recorded before kickoff
- 28 Timestamped before kickoff
Record so far
justin Pratt is straight up 10-4-1 (71.4%) and against the spread 9-6-0 (60.0%).
- Straight up
- 10-4-171.4% of 14 decided · 95% range 45–88%
- Against the spread
- 9-6-060.0% of 15 decided · 95% range 36–80%
- Current streak, straight up
- 1 win in a rowLongest: 6 wins in a row
- Current streak, ATS
- 1 win in a rowLongest: 5 wins in a row
Market-adjusted points Pick results adjusted for market odds.
- Straight up, 2026 season: +3.5 points 10 picks scored · 10 of 15 with recorded odds; 6-3-1 in these games; picking every favorite in the same 10 games: 5-4-1.
- Against the spread, 2026 season: +2.9 points 15 picks scored · 6 with recorded odds, 9 at assumed even odds; 9-6 (60.0%); a coin flip averages 50%.
Each pick counts as a 1-point play at the no-margin market price; zero is the expected score if market probabilities are accurate. Compare all pick types · How these points are calculated
28 graded picks read after the games but timestamped before kickoff by Tallysight; 2 graded picks recorded by us before kickoff.
Record highlights
Badges are facts about past picks, given by published rules. Badge rules · How badges work
- Biggest upset called · Week 5 · BUF over LAR · market 38.8% · called by 35 of 78Recorded before kickoff
- Right against the crowd · SU · 3 times · e.g. CHI at GB, 85 of 110 others wrongTimestamped before kickoff (platform)
- Upset Specialist · 3 of 5 underdogs won outright · prices implied 1.9Recorded before kickoffTimestamped before kickoff (platform)
All badges (7)
Each badge opens in place: what it means, how it compares, how often luck alone gives it and up to 10 of the picks behind it. Every pick, with the rule and the outlet pages, is on the picks behind each badge page. Recording evidence: Recorded before kickoff (we saw the pick before the game), Timestamped before kickoff (the platform's time stamp or a web archive copy), Matches outlet record (read after the game; the outlet's published record matches our recount), Added after the game (can only lower a record).
Season badges
Right against the crowd · SU · 3 times · e.g. CHI at GB, 85 of 110 others wrongTimestamped before kickoff (platform)
Right 3 times straight up when most of the other tracked forecasters on the game were wrong, e.g. CHI at GB: 85 of 110 others missed.
- Period
- 2026
- Compared with
- 85 of 110 others were wrong on the example game
- How rare
- ≈1 in 3 qualifying forecasters gets this by chance: in our chance check, 13.4 of 41 got it on average. Held now by 45 of the 73 forecasters in the badge count.
| Game | Pick | Result | Recording evidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| CHI at GB Oct 11 · Week 5 | GB (+113) | Win CHI 7–31 GB | Platform time stamp, 22 h 55 min before |
| CLE at NYJ Oct 11 · Week 5 | NYJ (-129) | Win CLE 12–17 NYJ | Platform time stamp, 22 h 55 min before |
| SF at SEA Oct 11 · Week 5 | SF (+155) | Win SF 32–29 SEA | Platform time stamp, 3 d 20 h before |
Best call: BUF over LAR · Week 5 · market 38.8%Recorded before kickoff
The correct straight-up pick with the lowest market chance on record: BUF over LAR in Week 5, when the market gave BUF a 38.8% chance.
- Period
- all time
- How rare
- ≈8 in 10 qualifying forecasters get this by chance: in our chance check, 32.4 of 41 got it on average. Held now by 63 of the 73 forecasters in the badge count.
| Game | Pick | Result | Recording evidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| BUF at LAR Oct 12 · Week 5 | BUF (+161) | Win BUF 37–34 LAR | Recorded by us, 2 h 57 min before |
28 picks timestamped before kickoff · publishing platformTimestamped before kickoff (platform)
Graded picks with a time before kickoff set by the publishing platform or shown by a web archive copy; we saw these picks later. This says nothing about results.
- Period
- all time
- How rare
- This is a fact about how the picks were recorded, not about results. Held now by 56 of the 73 forecasters in the badge count.
| Game | Pick | Result | Recording evidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| CLE at NYJ Oct 11 · Week 5 | NYJ (-129) | Win CLE 12–17 NYJ | Platform time stamp, 22 h 55 min before |
| NYG at WSH Oct 11 · Week 5 | WSH (-170) | Push NYG 27–27 WSH | Platform time stamp, 3 d 17 h before |
| DEN at LAC Oct 11 · Week 5 | LAC +3.5 | Loss DEN 23–17 LAC | Platform time stamp, 3 d 20 h before |
| DEN at LAC Oct 11 · Week 5 | DEN (-167) | Win DEN 23–17 LAC | Platform time stamp, 3 d 20 h before |
| SF at SEA Oct 11 · Week 5 | SF +3.5 | Win SF 32–29 SEA | Platform time stamp, 3 d 20 h before |
| DET at ARI Oct 11 · Week 5 | DET -5 | Win DET 45–21 ARI | Platform time stamp, 1 d 2 h before |
| SF at SEA Oct 11 · Week 5 | SF (+155) | Win SF 32–29 SEA | Platform time stamp, 3 d 20 h before |
| DET at ARI Oct 11 · Week 5 | DET (-231) | Win DET 45–21 ARI | Platform time stamp, 1 d 2 h before |
| BAL at ATL Oct 11 · Week 5 | ATL -3.5 | Loss BAL 30–23 ATL | Platform time stamp, 4 d before |
| BAL at ATL Oct 11 · Week 5 | ATL (-163) | Loss BAL 30–23 ATL | Platform time stamp, 4 d before |
Upset Specialist · 3 of 5 underdogs won outright · prices implied 1.9Recorded before kickoffTimestamped before kickoff (platform)
3 of 5 straight-up underdog picks right; market prices implied 1.9.
- Period
- 2026
- Compared with
- market prices implied 1.9 wins
- How rare
- Our chance check had 4 qualifying forecasters, too few to say how often luck alone gives this. Held now by 4 of the 73 forecasters in the badge count.
Built on the same picks as 3 outright upsets called · of 5 underdog picks · 2026, so it is shown once.
| Game | Pick | Result | Recording evidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| PHI at JAX Oct 11 · Week 5 | PHI (+321) | Loss PHI 17–19 JAX | Platform time stamp, 3 d 14 h before |
| CHI at GB Oct 11 · Week 5 | GB (+113) | Win CHI 7–31 GB | Platform time stamp, 22 h 55 min before |
| MIN at NO Oct 11 · Week 5 | NO (+127) | Loss MIN 23–13 NO | Platform time stamp, 22 h 55 min before |
| SF at SEA Oct 11 · Week 5 | SF (+155) | Win SF 32–29 SEA | Platform time stamp, 3 d 20 h before |
| BUF at LAR Oct 12 · Week 5 | BUF (+161) | Win BUF 37–34 LAR | Recorded by us, 2 h 57 min before |
Right against the crowd · ATS · 3 times · e.g. TB at DAL, 36 of 44 others wrongTimestamped before kickoff (platform)
Right 3 times against the spread when most of the other tracked forecasters on the game were wrong, e.g. TB at DAL: 36 of 44 others missed.
- Period
- 2026
- Compared with
- 36 of 44 others were wrong on the example game
- How rare
- ≈6 in 10 qualifying forecasters get this by chance: in our chance check, 9.2 of 16 got it on average. Held now by 45 of the 73 forecasters in the badge count.
| Game | Pick | Result | Recording evidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| TB at DAL Oct 8 · Week 5 | TB +8.5 | Win TB 24–16 DAL | Platform time stamp, 1 d before |
| CHI at GB Oct 11 · Week 5 | GB +1.5 | Win CHI 7–31 GB | Platform time stamp, 22 h 55 min before |
| CLE at NYJ Oct 11 · Week 5 | NYJ -1.5 | Win CLE 12–17 NYJ | Platform time stamp, 22 h 55 min before |
ATS · +2.9 market-adjusted points · 15 picks · 2026Recorded before kickoffTimestamped before kickoff (platform)
+2.9 market-adjusted points over 15 against-the-spread picks in 2026: each pick counted as a 1-point play at the no-margin market price at the time of the pick (for picks added after the game, the price at the start of that NFL week).
- Period
- 2026
- Compared with
- zero is the expected score if market probabilities are accurate
- How rare
- ≈1 in 3 qualifying forecasters gets this by chance: in our chance check, 7.7 of 26 got it on average. Held now by 8 of the 73 forecasters in the badge count.
| Game | Pick | Result | Recording evidence | Implied win chance used for scoring | Points |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CIN at MIA Oct 11 · Week 5 | CIN -6.5 | Win CIN 31–24 MIA | Platform time stamp, 3 d 17 h before | 50.0% no recorded odds for this line; assumed 50% | +1.00 |
| LV at NE Oct 11 · Week 5 | LV +3.5 | Loss LV 17–45 NE | Platform time stamp, 3 d 17 h before | 50.0% platform prices at pick time, both sides | −1.00 |
| IND at PIT Oct 11 · Week 5 | PIT -2.5 | Win IND 22–34 PIT | Platform time stamp, 3 d 17 h before | 52.2% platform prices at pick time, both sides | +0.92 |
| CLE at NYJ Oct 11 · Week 5 | NYJ -1.5 | Win CLE 12–17 NYJ | Platform time stamp, 22 h 55 min before | 50.0% no recorded odds for this line; assumed 50% | +1.00 |
| NYG at WSH Oct 11 · Week 5 | WSH -3.5 | Loss NYG 27–27 WSH | Platform time stamp, 3 d 17 h before | 48.9% platform prices at pick time, both sides | −1.00 |
| DEN at LAC Oct 11 · Week 5 | LAC +3.5 | Loss DEN 23–17 LAC | Platform time stamp, 3 d 20 h before | 51.9% platform prices at pick time, both sides | −1.00 |
| SF at SEA Oct 11 · Week 5 | SF +3.5 | Win SF 32–29 SEA | Platform time stamp, 3 d 20 h before | 50.0% no recorded odds for this line; assumed 50% | +1.00 |
| DET at ARI Oct 11 · Week 5 | DET -5 | Win DET 45–21 ARI | Platform time stamp, 1 d 2 h before | 50.0% no recorded odds for this line; assumed 50% | +1.00 |
| BAL at ATL Oct 11 · Week 5 | ATL -3.5 | Loss BAL 30–23 ATL | Platform time stamp, 4 d before | 47.5% platform prices at pick time, both sides | −1.00 |
| BUF at LAR Oct 12 · Week 5 | BUF +3.5 | Win BUF 37–34 LAR | Recorded by us, 2 h 57 min before | 51.6% our market reading, no margin | +0.94 |
Weekly badges
Biggest upset called · Week 5 · BUF over LAR · market 38.8% · called by 35 of 78Recorded before kickoff
Picked BUF to beat LAR straight up in Week 5; the market gave BUF a 38.8% chance. 35 of 78 tracked forecasters made that call.
- Period
- Week 5, 2026 · given after the last game of Week 5, Oct 13, 2026, and kept with its date
- Compared with
- 35 of 78 tracked forecasters made the same call
- How rare
- ≈1 in 6 qualifying forecasters gets this by chance: in our chance check, 7.1 of 41 got it on average. Held now by 42 of the 73 forecasters in the badge count.
| Game | Pick | Result | Recording evidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| BUF at LAR Oct 12 · Week 5 | BUF (+161) | Win BUF 37–34 LAR | Recorded by us, 2 h 57 min before |
History
No earlier badges.
Market-adjusted results
Three numbers for each market: the record, market-adjusted points and a simple rule to compare with. Points count each pick as if it were a 1-point play at the market price at the time of the pick (for picks added after the game, the price at the start of that NFL week), with the bookmaker margin taken out: a win adds what that price paid (more for an underdog, less for a favorite), a loss takes away 1 point, a push counts 0. Zero is the expected score if market probabilities are accurate. How we score fairly
| Market and period | Record in these picks | Market-adjusted points | Simple rule |
|---|---|---|---|
| Straight up 2026 season | 6-3-1 | +3.5 points 10 picks scored · 10 of 15 with recorded odds +0.35 per pick · 95% range −0.30 to +0.89 per pick | Every favorite: 5-4-1 same 10 games |
| Against the spread 2026 season | 9-6 | +2.9 points 15 picks scored · 6 with recorded odds, 9 at assumed even odds +0.19 per pick · 95% range −0.34 to +0.59 per pick | Coin flip: 50% 7.5 of 15 decided |
Every pick
Week 5 · SU 10-4-1; ATS 9-6-0
| Game | Straight up | Against the spread | Final | How we got it |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TB at DAL Thu, Oct 8 | DAL Loss | TB +8.5 Win | TB 24, DAL 16 | Timestamped before kickoff |
| PHI at JAX Sun, Oct 11 | PHI Loss | PHI +8 Win | PHI 17, JAX 19 | Timestamped before kickoff |
| CHI at GB Sun, Oct 11 | GB Win | GB +1.5 Win | CHI 7, GB 31 | Timestamped before kickoff |
| CIN at MIA Sun, Oct 11 | CIN Win | CIN -6.5 Win | CIN 31, MIA 24 | Timestamped before kickoff |
| CLE at NYJ Sun, Oct 11 | NYJ Win | NYJ -1.5 Win | CLE 12, NYJ 17 | Timestamped before kickoff |
| HOU at TEN Sun, Oct 11 | HOU Win | TEN +7.5 Loss | HOU 26, TEN 3 | Timestamped before kickoff |
| IND at PIT Sun, Oct 11 | PIT Win | PIT -2.5 Win | IND 22, PIT 34 | Timestamped before kickoff |
| LV at NE Sun, Oct 11 | NE Win | LV +3.5 Loss | LV 17, NE 45 | Timestamped before kickoff |
| MIN at NO Sun, Oct 11 | NO Loss | NO +2.5 Loss | MIN 23, NO 13 | Timestamped before kickoff |
| NYG at WSH Sun, Oct 11 | WSH Push | WSH -3.5 Loss | NYG 27, WSH 27 | Timestamped before kickoff |
| DEN at LAC Sun, Oct 11 | DEN Win | LAC +3.5 Loss | DEN 23, LAC 17 | Timestamped before kickoff |
| DET at ARI Sun, Oct 11 | DET Win | DET -5 Win | DET 45, ARI 21 | Timestamped before kickoff |
| SF at SEA Sun, Oct 11 | SF Win | SF +3.5 Win | SF 32, SEA 29 | Timestamped before kickoff |
| BAL at ATL Sun, Oct 11 | ATL Loss | ATL -3.5 Loss | BAL 30, ATL 23 | Timestamped before kickoff |
| BUF at LAR Mon, Oct 12 | BUF Win | BUF +3.5 Win | BUF 37, LAR 34 | Recorded before kickoff |
By week
| Week | Straight up | Against the spread |
|---|---|---|
| Week 5 | 10-4-1 | 9-6-0 |
| Season | 10-4-1 | 9-6-0 |
Does this match Gridiron Experts?
Tallysight marks each graded pick. Our grade matches its mark on 28 of 28 of justin Pratt's picks.
By team
Record when picking each team
| Team | Picked to win | Picked to lose | ATS on them | ATS against |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ARI Arizona Cardinals | — | 1-0-0 | — | 1-0-0 |
| ATL Atlanta Falcons | 0-1-0 | — | 0-1-0 | — |
| BAL Baltimore Ravens | — | 0-1-0 | — | 0-1-0 |
| BUF Buffalo Bills | 1-0-0 | — | 1-0-0 | — |
| CHI Chicago Bears | — | 1-0-0 | — | 1-0-0 |
| CIN Cincinnati Bengals | 1-0-0 | — | 1-0-0 | — |
| CLE Cleveland Browns | — | 1-0-0 | — | 1-0-0 |
| DAL Dallas Cowboys | 0-1-0 | — | — | 1-0-0 |
| DEN Denver Broncos | 1-0-0 | — | — | 0-1-0 |
| DET Detroit Lions | 1-0-0 | — | 1-0-0 | — |
| GB Green Bay Packers | 1-0-0 | — | 1-0-0 | — |
| HOU Houston Texans | 1-0-0 | — | — | 0-1-0 |
| IND Indianapolis Colts | — | 1-0-0 | — | 1-0-0 |
| JAX Jacksonville Jaguars | — | 0-1-0 | — | 1-0-0 |
| LV Las Vegas Raiders | — | 1-0-0 | 0-1-0 | — |
| LAC Los Angeles Chargers | — | 1-0-0 | 0-1-0 | — |
| LAR Los Angeles Rams | — | 1-0-0 | — | 1-0-0 |
| MIA Miami Dolphins | — | 1-0-0 | — | 1-0-0 |
| MIN Minnesota Vikings | — | 0-1-0 | — | 0-1-0 |
| NE New England Patriots | 1-0-0 | — | — | 0-1-0 |
| NO New Orleans Saints | 0-1-0 | — | 0-1-0 | — |
| NYG New York Giants | — | 0-0-1 | — | 0-1-0 |
| NYJ New York Jets | 1-0-0 | — | 1-0-0 | — |
| PHI Philadelphia Eagles | 0-1-0 | — | 1-0-0 | — |
| PIT Pittsburgh Steelers | 1-0-0 | — | 1-0-0 | — |
| SF San Francisco 49ers | 1-0-0 | — | 1-0-0 | — |
| SEA Seattle Seahawks | — | 1-0-0 | — | 1-0-0 |
| TB Tampa Bay Buccaneers | — | 0-1-0 | 1-0-0 | — |
| TEN Tennessee Titans | — | 1-0-0 | 0-1-0 | — |
| WSH Washington Commanders | 0-0-1 | — | 0-1-0 | — |
Also at Gridiron Experts
Adam Henley · GridironExperts · James Bryer · William Lafever