Gridiron Experts · NFL 2026
justin Pratt: the picks behind each badge, NFL 2026
Every pick behind each of the 7 current badges on the profile of justin Pratt, oldest first, losses included. The profile shows up to 10 picks per badge; this page has all of them, with the rule, the picks each badge can use and the outlet pages.
Badges are facts about past picks, given by published rules. Badge rules · How badges work
Recording evidence: Recorded before kickoff (we saw the pick before the game), Timestamped before kickoff (the platform's time stamp or a web archive copy), Matches outlet record (read after the game; the outlet's published record matches our recount), Added after the game (can only lower a record).
- Right against the crowd · SU · 3 times · e.g. CHI at GB, 85 of 110 others wrong
- Best call: BUF over LAR · Week 5 · market 38.8%
- 28 picks timestamped before kickoff · publishing platform
- Upset Specialist · 3 of 5 underdogs won outright · prices implied 1.9
- Right against the crowd · ATS · 3 times · e.g. TB at DAL, 36 of 44 others wrong
- ATS · +2.9 market-adjusted points · 15 picks · 2026
- Biggest upset called · Week 5 · BUF over LAR · market 38.8% · called by 35 of 78
Season badges
Right against the crowd · SU · 3 times · e.g. CHI at GB, 85 of 110 others wrong
Timestamped before kickoff (platform)
Right 3 times straight up when most of the other tracked forecasters on the game were wrong, e.g. CHI at GB: 85 of 110 others missed.
- Period
- 2026
- Compared with
- 85 of 110 others were wrong on the example game
- How rare
- ≈1 in 3 qualifying forecasters gets this by chance: in our chance check, 13.4 of 41 got it on average. Held now by 45 of the 73 forecasters in the badge count.
- How it is counted
- A game where at least 6 other tracked forecasters made a pick on the same market, at least 60% of them were wrong, and this forecaster was right. Counted over the season. Steps: 2, 3, 5 and 10 times. Badge rules
- Picks that count
- Picks recorded before kickoff, timestamped by the publishing platform, archive records and, for ESPN, CBS Sports and NFL.com, outlet records; other picks read after the game only lower a record.
- First counted
- Oct 12, 2026 (our badge history starts that day)
| Game | Pick | Result | Recording evidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| CHI at GB Oct 11 · Week 5 | GB (+113) | Win CHI 7–31 GB | Platform time stamp, 22 h 55 min before |
| CLE at NYJ Oct 11 · Week 5 | NYJ (-129) | Win CLE 12–17 NYJ | Platform time stamp, 22 h 55 min before |
| SF at SEA Oct 11 · Week 5 | SF (+155) | Win SF 32–29 SEA | Platform time stamp, 3 d 20 h before |
Outlet pages: Gridiron Experts, Week 5.
To quote it: Hunchmeter: Right against the crowd · SU · 3 times · e.g. CHI at GB, 85 of 110 others wrong · hunchmeter.com/experts/justin-pratt/#t-zu-35b5d67b7537fcc7
Best call: BUF over LAR · Week 5 · market 38.8%
Recorded before kickoff
The correct straight-up pick with the lowest market chance on record: BUF over LAR in Week 5, when the market gave BUF a 38.8% chance.
- Period
- all time
- How rare
- ≈8 in 10 qualifying forecasters get this by chance: in our chance check, 32.4 of 41 got it on average. Held now by 63 of the 73 forecasters in the badge count.
- How it is counted
- One per forecaster, shown on the profile: the correct straight-up pick with the lowest market chance (below 50%). Badge rules
- Picks that count
- Picks recorded before kickoff, timestamped by the publishing platform, archive records and, for ESPN, CBS Sports and NFL.com, outlet records; other picks read after the game only lower a record.
- First counted
- Oct 12, 2026 (our badge history starts that day)
| Game | Pick | Result | Recording evidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| BUF at LAR Oct 12 · Week 5 | BUF (+161) | Win BUF 37–34 LAR | Recorded by us, 2 h 57 min before |
Outlet pages: Gridiron Experts, Week 5.
To quote it: Hunchmeter: Best call: BUF over LAR · Week 5 · market 38.8% · hunchmeter.com/experts/justin-pratt/#t-zu-aba7df500fd091aa
28 picks timestamped before kickoff · publishing platform
Timestamped before kickoff (platform)
Graded picks with a time before kickoff set by the publishing platform or shown by a web archive copy; we saw these picks later. This says nothing about results.
- Period
- all time
- How rare
- This is a fact about how the picks were recorded, not about results. Held now by 56 of the 73 forecasters in the badge count.
- How it is counted
- The number of graded picks whose time before kickoff was set by the publishing platform or shown by a web archive copy; we saw these picks later. Steps: 10, 30, 100 and 300. It says nothing about results. Badge rules
- Picks that count
- Only picks whose time before kickoff was set by the publishing platform or shown by a web archive copy.
- First counted
- Oct 12, 2026 (our badge history starts that day)
| Game | Pick | Result | Recording evidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| TB at DAL Oct 8 · Week 5 | TB +8.5 | Win TB 24–16 DAL | Platform time stamp, 1 d before |
| TB at DAL Oct 8 · Week 5 | DAL (-394) | Loss TB 24–16 DAL | Platform time stamp, 1 d 21 h before |
| PHI at JAX Oct 11 · Week 5 | PHI +8 | Win PHI 17–19 JAX | Platform time stamp, 3 d 14 h before |
| PHI at JAX Oct 11 · Week 5 | PHI (+321) | Loss PHI 17–19 JAX | Platform time stamp, 3 d 14 h before |
| CHI at GB Oct 11 · Week 5 | GB +1.5 | Win CHI 7–31 GB | Platform time stamp, 22 h 55 min before |
| CIN at MIA Oct 11 · Week 5 | CIN -6.5 | Win CIN 31–24 MIA | Platform time stamp, 3 d 17 h before |
| MIN at NO Oct 11 · Week 5 | NO +2.5 | Loss MIN 23–13 NO | Platform time stamp, 22 h 55 min before |
| HOU at TEN Oct 11 · Week 5 | TEN +7.5 | Loss HOU 26–3 TEN | Platform time stamp, 3 d 17 h before |
| LV at NE Oct 11 · Week 5 | LV +3.5 | Loss LV 17–45 NE | Platform time stamp, 3 d 17 h before |
| IND at PIT Oct 11 · Week 5 | PIT -2.5 | Win IND 22–34 PIT | Platform time stamp, 3 d 17 h before |
| CLE at NYJ Oct 11 · Week 5 | NYJ -1.5 | Win CLE 12–17 NYJ | Platform time stamp, 22 h 55 min before |
| NYG at WSH Oct 11 · Week 5 | WSH -3.5 | Loss NYG 27–27 WSH | Platform time stamp, 3 d 17 h before |
| CHI at GB · Week 5 · GB · Win | |||
| CIN at MIA Oct 11 · Week 5 | CIN (-300) | Win CIN 31–24 MIA | Platform time stamp, 3 d 17 h before |
| MIN at NO Oct 11 · Week 5 | NO (+127) | Loss MIN 23–13 NO | Platform time stamp, 22 h 55 min before |
| HOU at TEN Oct 11 · Week 5 | HOU (-335) | Win HOU 26–3 TEN | Platform time stamp, 3 d 17 h before |
| LV at NE Oct 11 · Week 5 | NE (-170) | Win LV 17–45 NE | Platform time stamp, 22 h 55 min before |
| IND at PIT Oct 11 · Week 5 | PIT (-134) | Win IND 22–34 PIT | Platform time stamp, 3 d 17 h before |
| CLE at NYJ · Week 5 · NYJ · Win | |||
| NYG at WSH Oct 11 · Week 5 | WSH (-170) | Push NYG 27–27 WSH | Platform time stamp, 3 d 17 h before |
| DEN at LAC Oct 11 · Week 5 | LAC +3.5 | Loss DEN 23–17 LAC | Platform time stamp, 3 d 20 h before |
| DEN at LAC Oct 11 · Week 5 | DEN (-167) | Win DEN 23–17 LAC | Platform time stamp, 3 d 20 h before |
| SF at SEA Oct 11 · Week 5 | SF +3.5 | Win SF 32–29 SEA | Platform time stamp, 3 d 20 h before |
| DET at ARI Oct 11 · Week 5 | DET -5 | Win DET 45–21 ARI | Platform time stamp, 1 d 2 h before |
| SF at SEA · Week 5 · SF · Win | |||
| DET at ARI Oct 11 · Week 5 | DET (-231) | Win DET 45–21 ARI | Platform time stamp, 1 d 2 h before |
| BAL at ATL Oct 11 · Week 5 | ATL -3.5 | Loss BAL 30–23 ATL | Platform time stamp, 4 d before |
| BAL at ATL Oct 11 · Week 5 | ATL (-163) | Loss BAL 30–23 ATL | Platform time stamp, 4 d before |
Outlet pages: Gridiron Experts, Week 5 · Gridiron Experts, Week 5.
To quote it: Hunchmeter: 28 picks timestamped before kickoff · publishing platform · hunchmeter.com/experts/justin-pratt/#t-zu-615739119839de3d
Upset Specialist · 3 of 5 underdogs won outright · prices implied 1.9
Recorded before kickoffTimestamped before kickoff (platform)
3 of 5 straight-up underdog picks right; market prices implied 1.9.
- Period
- 2026
- Compared with
- market prices implied 1.9 wins
- How rare
- Our chance check had 4 qualifying forecasters, too few to say how often luck alone gives this. Held now by 4 of the 73 forecasters in the badge count.
- How it is counted
- At least 5 straight-up underdog picks, at least 3 of them won, and at least 1.0 more wins than the market prices implied. The word Specialist is used only together with these numbers. Badge rules
- Picks that count
- Picks recorded before kickoff, timestamped by the publishing platform, archive records and, for ESPN, CBS Sports and NFL.com, outlet records; other picks read after the game only lower a record. Levels use the live record only.
- First counted
- Oct 12, 2026
Built on the same picks as 3 outright upsets called · of 5 underdog picks · 2026, so it is shown once.
| Game | Pick | Result | Recording evidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| PHI at JAX · Week 5 · PHI · Loss | |||
| CHI at GB · Week 5 · GB · Win | |||
| MIN at NO · Week 5 · NO · Loss | |||
| SF at SEA · Week 5 · SF · Win | |||
| BUF at LAR · Week 5 · BUF · Win | |||
Outlet pages: Gridiron Experts, Week 5.
To quote it: Hunchmeter: Upset Specialist · 3 of 5 underdogs won outright · prices implied 1.9 · hunchmeter.com/experts/justin-pratt/#t-zu-e203a81772540d75
Right against the crowd · ATS · 3 times · e.g. TB at DAL, 36 of 44 others wrong
Timestamped before kickoff (platform)
Right 3 times against the spread when most of the other tracked forecasters on the game were wrong, e.g. TB at DAL: 36 of 44 others missed.
- Period
- 2026
- Compared with
- 36 of 44 others were wrong on the example game
- How rare
- ≈6 in 10 qualifying forecasters get this by chance: in our chance check, 9.2 of 16 got it on average. Held now by 45 of the 73 forecasters in the badge count.
- How it is counted
- A game where at least 6 other tracked forecasters made a pick on the same market, at least 60% of them were wrong, and this forecaster was right. Counted over the season. Steps: 2, 3, 5 and 10 times. Badge rules
- Picks that count
- Picks recorded before kickoff, timestamped by the publishing platform, archive records and, for ESPN, CBS Sports and NFL.com, outlet records; other picks read after the game only lower a record.
- First counted
- Oct 12, 2026 (our badge history starts that day)
| Game | Pick | Result | Recording evidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| TB at DAL · Week 5 · TB +8.5 · Win | |||
| CHI at GB · Week 5 · GB +1.5 · Win | |||
| CLE at NYJ · Week 5 · NYJ -1.5 · Win | |||
Outlet pages: Gridiron Experts, Week 5.
To quote it: Hunchmeter: Right against the crowd · ATS · 3 times · e.g. TB at DAL, 36 of 44 others wrong · hunchmeter.com/experts/justin-pratt/#t-zu-694d47fde4d6aa89
ATS · +2.9 market-adjusted points · 15 picks · 2026
Recorded before kickoffTimestamped before kickoff (platform)
+2.9 market-adjusted points over 15 against-the-spread picks in 2026: each pick counted as a 1-point play at the no-margin market price at the time of the pick (for picks added after the game, the price at the start of that NFL week).
- Period
- 2026
- Compared with
- zero is the expected score if market probabilities are accurate
- How rare
- ≈1 in 3 qualifying forecasters gets this by chance: in our chance check, 7.7 of 26 got it on average. Held now by 8 of the 73 forecasters in the badge count.
- How it is counted
- Market-adjusted points over the season on one market: at least 15 scored picks (10 on totals) and at least +2.0 points in total. Each pick counts as a 1-point play at the no-margin market price at the time of the pick (for picks added after the game, the price at the start of that NFL week): a win adds 1/p − 1, a loss takes away 1, a push counts 0. A straight-up pick with no two-sided price at that moment is left out; a spread or total pick with no price on its own line counts at even odds. Badge rules
- Picks that count
- Picks recorded before kickoff, timestamped by the publishing platform, archive records and, for ESPN, CBS Sports and NFL.com, outlet records; other picks read after the game only lower a record.
- First counted
- Oct 13, 2026
| Game | Pick | Result | Recording evidence | Implied win chance used for scoring | Points |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TB at DAL · Week 5 · TB +8.5 · Win | |||||
| PHI at JAX · Week 5 · PHI +8 · Win | |||||
| CHI at GB · Week 5 · GB +1.5 · Win | |||||
| CIN at MIA · Week 5 · CIN -6.5 · Win | |||||
| MIN at NO · Week 5 · NO +2.5 · Loss | |||||
| HOU at TEN · Week 5 · TEN +7.5 · Loss | |||||
| LV at NE · Week 5 · LV +3.5 · Loss | |||||
| IND at PIT · Week 5 · PIT -2.5 · Win | |||||
| CLE at NYJ · Week 5 · NYJ -1.5 · Win | |||||
| NYG at WSH · Week 5 · WSH -3.5 · Loss | |||||
| DEN at LAC · Week 5 · LAC +3.5 · Loss | |||||
| SF at SEA · Week 5 · SF +3.5 · Win | |||||
| DET at ARI · Week 5 · DET -5 · Win | |||||
| BAL at ATL · Week 5 · ATL -3.5 · Loss | |||||
| BUF at LAR Oct 12 · Week 5 | BUF +3.5 | Win BUF 37–34 LAR | Recorded by us, 2 h 57 min before | 51.6% our market reading, no margin | +0.94 |
Outlet pages: Gridiron Experts, Week 5.
To quote it: Hunchmeter: ATS · +2.9 market-adjusted points · 15 picks · 2026 · hunchmeter.com/experts/justin-pratt/#t-zu-287a1a21c4645ac1
Weekly badges
Biggest upset called · Week 5 · BUF over LAR · market 38.8% · called by 35 of 78
Recorded before kickoff
Picked BUF to beat LAR straight up in Week 5; the market gave BUF a 38.8% chance. 35 of 78 tracked forecasters made that call.
- Period
- Week 5, 2026 · given after the last game of Week 5, Oct 13, 2026, and kept with its date
- Compared with
- 35 of 78 tracked forecasters made the same call
- How rare
- ≈1 in 6 qualifying forecasters gets this by chance: in our chance check, 7.1 of 41 got it on average. Held now by 42 of the 73 forecasters in the badge count.
- How it is counted
- Of the week's underdog wins that at least one tracked forecaster called (market chance below 40%), the least likely one. Everyone who picked that team straight up gets the badge, shown with how many made the call. Given after the week's last game and kept with its date. Badge rules
- Picks that count
- Picks recorded before kickoff, timestamped by the publishing platform, archive records and, for ESPN, CBS Sports and NFL.com, outlet records; other picks read after the game only lower a record.
- First counted
- Oct 12, 2026
1 pick behind this badge: the same picks as rows 1–1 of the table under the badge above (1 win).
To quote it: Hunchmeter: Biggest upset called · Week 5 · BUF over LAR · market 38.8% · called by 35 of 78 · hunchmeter.com/experts/justin-pratt/#t-zu-897a3ea913e57473