Each badge opens in place: what it means, how it compares, how often luck alone gives it and up to 10 of the picks behind it. Every pick, with the rule and the outlet pages, is on the picks behind each badge page. Recording evidence: Recorded before kickoff (we saw the pick before the game), Timestamped before kickoff (the platform's time stamp or a web archive copy), Matches outlet record (read after the game; the outlet's published record matches our recount), Added after the game (can only lower a record).

Season badges

Best call: BUF over LAR · Week 5 · market 38.8%Recorded before kickoff

The correct straight-up pick with the lowest market chance on record: BUF over LAR in Week 5, when the market gave BUF a 38.8% chance.

Period: all time
How rare: ≈8 in 10 qualifying forecasters get this by chance: in our chance check, 32.4 of 41 got it on average. Held now by 63 of the 73 forecasters in the badge count.

The pick behind this badge.
Game	Pick	Result	Recording evidence
BUF at LAR Oct 12 · Week 5	BUF (+138)	Win BUF 37–34 LAR	Recorded by us, 2 h 58 min before

The pick behind this badge, with sources → · Badge rules

14 picks timestamped before kickoff · publishing platformTimestamped before kickoff (platform)

Graded picks with a time before kickoff set by the publishing platform or shown by a web archive copy; we saw these picks later. This says nothing about results.

Period: all time
How rare: This is a fact about how the picks were recorded, not about results. Held now by 56 of the 73 forecasters in the badge count.

10 of the 14 picks behind this badge, oldest first: the latest 5 wins, 4 losses and 1 push, in about the same mix as the full list.
Game	Pick	Result	Recording evidence
MIN at NO Oct 11 · Week 5	MIN (-134)	Win MIN 23–13 NO	Platform time stamp, 3 d 19 h before
HOU at TEN Oct 11 · Week 5	HOU (-370)	Win HOU 26–3 TEN	Platform time stamp, 3 d 19 h before
LV at NE Oct 11 · Week 5	LV (+164)	Loss LV 17–45 NE	Platform time stamp, 3 d 19 h before
IND at PIT Oct 11 · Week 5	PIT (-134)	Win IND 22–34 PIT	Platform time stamp, 3 d 19 h before
CLE at NYJ Oct 11 · Week 5	CLE (+108)	Loss CLE 12–17 NYJ	Platform time stamp, 3 d 19 h before
NYG at WSH Oct 11 · Week 5	WSH (-190)	Push NYG 27–27 WSH	Platform time stamp, 3 d 19 h before
DEN at LAC Oct 11 · Week 5	DEN (-176)	Win DEN 23–17 LAC	Platform time stamp, 3 d 23 h before
SF at SEA Oct 11 · Week 5	SEA (-162)	Loss SF 32–29 SEA	Platform time stamp, 3 d 23 h before
DET at ARI Oct 11 · Week 5	DET (-240)	Win DET 45–21 ARI	Platform time stamp, 3 d 23 h before
BAL at ATL Oct 11 · Week 5	ATL (-180)	Loss BAL 30–23 ATL	Platform time stamp, 4 d 3 h before

All 14 picks behind this badge → · Badge rules

Weekly badges

Biggest upset called · Week 5 · BUF over LAR · market 38.8% · called by 35 of 78Recorded before kickoff

Picked BUF to beat LAR straight up in Week 5; the market gave BUF a 38.8% chance. 35 of 78 tracked forecasters made that call.

Period: Week 5, 2026 · given after the last game of Week 5, Oct 13, 2026, and kept with its date
Compared with: 35 of 78 tracked forecasters made the same call
How rare: ≈1 in 6 qualifying forecasters gets this by chance: in our chance check, 7.1 of 41 got it on average. Held now by 42 of the 73 forecasters in the badge count.

The pick behind this badge.
Game	Pick	Result	Recording evidence
BUF at LAR Oct 12 · Week 5	BUF (+138)	Win BUF 37–34 LAR	Recorded by us, 2 h 58 min before

The pick behind this badge, with sources → · Badge rules

History

No earlier badges.

Market-adjusted results

Three numbers for each market: the record, market-adjusted points and a simple rule to compare with. Points count each pick as if it were a 1-point play at the market price at the time of the pick (for picks added after the game, the price at the start of that NFL week), with the bookmaker margin taken out: a win adds what that price paid (more for an underdog, less for a favorite), a loss takes away 1 point, a push counts 0. Zero is the expected score if market probabilities are accurate. How we score fairly

The 2026 season, the last four weeks and the live record (picks we recorded before kickoff, from Week 6), where there is one. A straight-up pick without a two-sided price at the time is left out of points; a spread or total pick without a price on its own line counts at even odds.
Market and period	Record in these picks	Market-adjusted points	Simple rule
Straight up 2026 season	5-5-1	−1.0 points 11 picks scored · 11 of 15 with recorded odds −0.09 per pick · 95% range −0.56 to +0.52 per pick	Every favorite: 6-4-1 same 11 games

Every pick

Week 5 · SU 8-6-1

Game	Straight up	Final	How we got it
TB at DAL Thu, Oct 8	DAL Loss	TB 24, DAL 16	Timestamped before kickoff
PHI at JAX Sun, Oct 11	JAX Win	PHI 17, JAX 19	Timestamped before kickoff
CHI at GB Sun, Oct 11	CHI Loss	CHI 7, GB 31	Timestamped before kickoff
CIN at MIA Sun, Oct 11	CIN Win	CIN 31, MIA 24	Timestamped before kickoff
CLE at NYJ Sun, Oct 11	CLE Loss	CLE 12, NYJ 17	Timestamped before kickoff
HOU at TEN Sun, Oct 11	HOU Win	HOU 26, TEN 3	Timestamped before kickoff
IND at PIT Sun, Oct 11	PIT Win	IND 22, PIT 34	Timestamped before kickoff
LV at NE Sun, Oct 11	LV Loss	LV 17, NE 45	Timestamped before kickoff
MIN at NO Sun, Oct 11	MIN Win	MIN 23, NO 13	Timestamped before kickoff
NYG at WSH Sun, Oct 11	WSH Push	NYG 27, WSH 27	Timestamped before kickoff
DEN at LAC Sun, Oct 11	DEN Win	DEN 23, LAC 17	Timestamped before kickoff
DET at ARI Sun, Oct 11	DET Win	DET 45, ARI 21	Timestamped before kickoff
SF at SEA Sun, Oct 11	SEA Loss	SF 32, SEA 29	Timestamped before kickoff
BAL at ATL Sun, Oct 11	ATL Loss	BAL 30, ATL 23	Timestamped before kickoff
BUF at LAR Mon, Oct 12	BUF Win	BUF 37, LAR 34	Recorded before kickoff

All Week 5 picks

By week

W-L-P by week.
Week	Straight up
Week 5	8-6-1
Season	8-6-1

Does this match Silver And Black Pride?

Tallysight marks each graded pick. Our grade matches its mark on 14 of 14 of Matt Holder's picks.

By team

Record when picking each team

W-L-P. "Picked to win" counts picks on that team; "picked to lose" counts picks on its opponent.
Team	Picked to win	Picked to lose
ARI Arizona Cardinals	—	1-0-0
ATL Atlanta Falcons	0-1-0	—
BAL Baltimore Ravens	—	0-1-0
BUF Buffalo Bills	1-0-0	—
CHI Chicago Bears	0-1-0	—
CIN Cincinnati Bengals	1-0-0	—
CLE Cleveland Browns	0-1-0	—
DAL Dallas Cowboys	0-1-0	—
DEN Denver Broncos	1-0-0	—
DET Detroit Lions	1-0-0	—
GB Green Bay Packers	—	0-1-0
HOU Houston Texans	1-0-0	—
IND Indianapolis Colts	—	1-0-0
JAX Jacksonville Jaguars	1-0-0	—
LV Las Vegas Raiders	0-1-0	—
LAC Los Angeles Chargers	—	1-0-0
LAR Los Angeles Rams	—	1-0-0
MIA Miami Dolphins	—	1-0-0
MIN Minnesota Vikings	1-0-0	—
NE New England Patriots	—	0-1-0
NO New Orleans Saints	—	1-0-0
NYG New York Giants	—	0-0-1
NYJ New York Jets	—	0-1-0
PHI Philadelphia Eagles	—	1-0-0
PIT Pittsburgh Steelers	1-0-0	—
SF San Francisco 49ers	—	0-1-0
SEA Seattle Seahawks	0-1-0	—
TB Tampa Bay Buccaneers	—	0-1-0
TEN Tennessee Titans	—	1-0-0
WSH Washington Commanders	0-0-1	—

Also at Silver And Black Pride

Bill Williamson · Ray Aspuria

Record highlights

All badges (3)