Badge rules
Team game record
Badges are facts about past picks, given by published rules. A badge is not a recommendation.
The rule
Picks in one team's games on one market: at least 5 decided, the lower bound of the 95% Wilson interval above the base rate (50% against the spread and on totals; the average market chance of the picks straight up), and a share above the field in that team's games. A record only, with no ranking.
- Holders now
- 6
- Window
- season
Picks that count. Picks we recorded before kickoff; picks whose time before kickoff was set by the publishing platform (timestamped by the publishing platform) or shown by a web archive copy of the page (archive record); and, for ESPN, CBS Sports and NFL.com, picks read after the game where the outlet's own published record for that expert matches our recount (per the outlet's published record). Any other pick read after the game can only lower a record, and any known loss ends a run.
Holders
| Holder | Badge | Since | Share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dave Richard CBS Sports | Raiders games · SU 5–0 · 2026 · field 59.0% Matches the outlet's published record | Oct 12, 2026 | Card |
| Dan Graziano ESPN | Rams games · SU 5–0 · 2026 · field 53.3% Timestamped before kickoff (web archive copy)Recorded before kickoffMatches the outlet's published record | Oct 13, 2026 | Card |
| Jason Reid ESPN | Raiders games · SU 5–0 · 2026 · field 59.0% Timestamped before kickoff (web archive copy)Matches the outlet's published record | Oct 13, 2026 | Card |
| Ryan Wilson CBS Sports | Vikings games · ATS 5–0 · 2026 · field 60.0% Matches the outlet's published record | Oct 12, 2026 | Card |
| Jared Dubin CBS Sports | Jaguars games · ATS 5–0 · 2026 · field 50.0% Matches the outlet's published record | Oct 12, 2026 | Card |
| Ryan Wilson CBS Sports | Saints games · ATS 5–0 · 2026 · field 56.0% Matches the outlet's published record | Oct 12, 2026 | Card |
| Ryan Wilson CBS Sports | Raiders games · ATS 5–0 · 2026 · field 52.0% Matches the outlet's published record | Oct 12, 2026 | Card |
| Jamey Eisenberg CBS Sports | Packers games · ATS 5–0 · 2026 · field 44.0% Matches the outlet's published record | Oct 12, 2026 | Card |
How common
Held now by 6 of the 73 forecasters in the badge count.
Our chance check (Oct 12, 2026): the same picks, with every game's score drawn again at random around the market line, 40 times. If a badge shows up about as often by chance as in the real record, it is a fact about the past, not a sign of skill.
Show as table
| Variant | Picks used | Qualifying | Held, real record | Held by chance, average |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| teams · ATS | all picks, including those read after the game | 12 | 4 | 6.8 |
| teams · SU | all picks, including those read after the game | 23 | 2 | 4.2 |
