Badge rules
Upset Specialist (underdogs that won outright)
Badges are facts about past picks, given by published rules. A badge is not a recommendation.
The rule
At least 5 straight-up underdog picks, at least 3 of them won, and at least 1.0 more wins than the market prices implied. The word Specialist is used only together with these numbers.
- Holders now
- 4
- Window
- season
Picks that count. Picks we recorded before kickoff; picks whose time before kickoff was set by the publishing platform (timestamped by the publishing platform) or shown by a web archive copy of the page (archive record); and, for ESPN, CBS Sports and NFL.com, picks read after the game where the outlet's own published record for that expert matches our recount (per the outlet's published record). Any other pick read after the game can only lower a record, and any known loss ends a run. Levels (No.1, Top 3, Top 5, Top 10) use the live record only, from Week 6 of 2026 on.
Holders
| Holder | Badge | Since | Share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dave Richard CBS Sports | Upset Specialist · 10 of 21 underdogs won outright · prices implied 8.5 Matches the outlet's published record | Oct 12, 2026 | Card |
| Tyler Sullivan CBS Sports | Upset Specialist · 7 of 12 underdogs won outright · prices implied 5.2 Matches the outlet's published record | Oct 12, 2026 | Card |
| Anthony Balaj Pride of Detroit | Upset Specialist · 4 of 7 underdogs won outright · prices implied 2.8 Recorded before kickoffTimestamped before kickoff (platform) | Oct 12, 2026 | Card |
| justin Pratt Gridiron Experts | Upset Specialist · 3 of 5 underdogs won outright · prices implied 1.9 Recorded before kickoffTimestamped before kickoff (platform) | Oct 12, 2026 | Card |
Held earlier
- Lindsey Thiry: Upset Specialist · 6 of 11 underdogs won outright · prices implied 4.6
until Oct 13, 2026 - Mike Clay: Upset Specialist · 5 of 8 underdogs won outright · prices implied 3.6
until Oct 13, 2026
How common
Held now by 4 of the 73 forecasters in the badge count.
Our chance check (Oct 12, 2026): the same picks, with every game's score drawn again at random around the market line, 40 times. If a badge shows up about as often by chance as in the real record, it is a fact about the past, not a sign of skill.
| Variant | Picks used | Qualifying | Held, real record | Held by chance, average |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Underdogs SU · levels | all picks, including those read after the game | 18 | 5 | 4.8 |
| Upset Specialist (underdogs that won outright) | picks recorded or timestamped before kickoff | 4 | 0 | 0.9 |
| Upset Specialist (underdogs that won outright) | all picks, including those read after the game | 28 | 3 | 7 |
