Badge rules
More right than the market implied
Badges are facts about past picks, given by published rules. A badge is not a recommendation.
The rule
At least 15 straight-up picks with a market chance: wins minus the sum of the market chances is +2 or more (steps +2, +4, +8). The bookmaker margin is taken out of the prices first.
- Holders now
- 0
- Window
- season
Picks that count. Picks we recorded before kickoff; picks whose time before kickoff was set by the publishing platform (timestamped by the publishing platform) or shown by a web archive copy of the page (archive record); and, for ESPN, CBS Sports and NFL.com, picks read after the game where the outlet's own published record for that expert matches our recount (per the outlet's published record). Any other pick read after the game can only lower a record, and any known loss ends a run.
Holders
No tracked forecaster holds this badge yet.
Held earlier
- Tyler Sullivan: 51 right of 77 · prices implied 48.4
until Oct 13, 2026 - Dave Richard: 48 right of 77 · prices implied 46.0
until Oct 13, 2026
How common
Held now by 0 of the 73 forecasters in the badge count.
Our chance check (Oct 12, 2026): the same picks, with every game's score drawn again at random around the market line, 40 times. If a badge shows up about as often by chance as in the real record, it is a fact about the past, not a sign of skill.
| Variant | Picks used | Qualifying | Held, real record | Held by chance, average |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| More right than the market implied | picks recorded or timestamped before kickoff | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| More right than the market implied | all picks, including those read after the game | 23 | 2 | 8.3 |
