HunchmeterElection forecasts. Results you can check.

US midterm elections · Nov 3, 2026

Election forecasters and the records behind them

Four forecasters, 506 Senate, House and governor races. Compare what they say now, and after Nov 3 check who was right. Hunchmeter records published forecasts and grades them against the final result — for the 2026 midterms here, and every week for NFL experts.

Find your state ✓ Sealed Nov 1, 5:10 AM ET · Verify
506Races on the ballot
98Battleground races
38Races where they disagree
258Forecast changes since Oct 21 (154 toward D, 83 toward R, 21 label only)
Find your state 98 battleground races in 32 states
Alabama 1Alaska 3Arizona 4California 3Colorado 4Florida 11Georgia 1Iowa 5Kansas 2Kentucky 1Maine 2Michigan 5Minnesota 2Missouri 1Montana 2Nebraska 3Nevada 4New Hampshire 2New Jersey 1New Mexico 1New York 5North Carolina 3Ohio 7Oregon 1Pennsylvania 4South Carolina 2Tennessee 2Texas 8Vermont 1Virginia 3Washington 1Wisconsin 3

Alabama

Alaska

Arizona

California

Colorado

Florida

Georgia

Iowa

Kansas

Kentucky

Maine

  • Maine Senateforecasters split
    Troy Jackson (D) vs Susan Collins (R)
  • Maine 2 (House)opposite winners named
    Matthew Dunlap (D) vs Paul LePage (R)

Michigan

Minnesota

Missouri

Montana

Nebraska

Nevada

New Hampshire

New Jersey

New Mexico

New York

North Carolina

Ohio

Oregon

Pennsylvania

South Carolina

Tennessee

Texas

Vermont

Virginia

Washington

Wisconsin

The balance of power today

How each forecaster sees the map

From the latest sealed forecasts, Nov 1, 5:10 AM ET. Blue leans Democratic, red Republican, grey is Toss-up.

Safe DLikely DLean DTilt DToss-upTilt RLean RLikely RSafe R
Inside ElectionsSenate if favorites win: D 50 · R 46 · Toss-up 4
FiftyPlusOneSenate if favorites win: D 51 · R 46 · Toss-up 3
DDHQ / The HillSenate if favorites win: D 49 · R 46 · Toss-up 5
Race to the WHSenate if favorites win: D 51 · R 45 · Toss-up 4

35 seats are on the ballot. The bars show those 35; the totals add the 65 seats not up this year (34 held by Democrats and independents who caucus with them, 31 by Republicans). A majority is 51 seats, or 50 for the party of the Vice President.

See the counts
ForecasterSafe DLikely DLean DTilt DToss-upTilt RLean RLikely RSafe R
Inside Elections9124420310
FiftyPlusOne9440301410
DDHQ / The Hill942050168
Race to the WH1221240338
Safe DLikely DLean DTilt DToss-upTilt RLean RLikely RSafe R
Inside ElectionsHouse if favorites win: D 224 · R 198 · Toss-up 13
FiftyPlusOneHouse if favorites win: D 233 · R 192 · Toss-up 10
DDHQ / The HillHouse if favorites win: D 223 · R 202 · Toss-up 10
Race to the WHHouse if favorites win: D 223 · R 192 · Toss-up 20

All 435 seats are on the ballot. A majority is 218.

See the counts
ForecasterSafe DLikely DLean DTilt DToss-upTilt RLean RLikely RSafe R
Inside Elections19057221351119163
FiftyPlusOne203181201001430148
DDHQ / The Hill18727901001365124
Race to the WH193151052051121155
Safe DLikely DLean DTilt DToss-upTilt RLean RLikely RSafe R
Inside ElectionsFavored: D 21 · R 14 · Toss-up 1
Race to the WHFavored: D 19 · R 14 · Toss-up 3

36 governorships are on the ballot. FiftyPlusOne and DDHQ / The Hill do not forecast governor races.

See the counts
ForecasterSafe DLikely DLean DTilt DToss-upTilt RLean RLikely RSafe R
Inside Elections1032612147
Race to the WH882131454

Where they disagree

8 races with opposite winners named

Of 38 races where the four forecasters disagree, these are the head-on clashes: one names a Democratic winner, another a Republican.

House

Maine 2

Matthew Dunlap (D) vs Paul LePage (R)

Inside Elections: R Lean FiftyPlusOne: D Lean DDHQ / The Hill: R Lean Race to the WH: R Tilt

House

Michigan 4

Sean McCann (D) vs Bill Huizenga (R)

Inside Elections: Toss-up FiftyPlusOne: D Lean DDHQ / The Hill: R Lean Race to the WH: Toss-up

House

Michigan 10

Christina Hines (D) vs Michael Bouchard (R)

Inside Elections: R Tilt FiftyPlusOne: D Lean DDHQ / The Hill: Toss-up Race to the WH: Toss-up

House

Ohio 7

Brian Poindexter (D) vs Max Miller (R)

Inside Elections: D Tilt FiftyPlusOne: Toss-up DDHQ / The Hill: Toss-up Race to the WH: R Tilt

House

Pennsylvania 1

Bob Harvie (D) vs Brian Fitzpatrick (R)

Inside Elections: Toss-up FiftyPlusOne: D Likely DDHQ / The Hill: R Lean Race to the WH: Toss-up

House

Texas 15

Bobby Pulido (D) vs Monica De La Cruz (R)

Inside Elections: D Tilt FiftyPlusOne: R Lean DDHQ / The Hill: Toss-up Race to the WH: Toss-up

House

Virginia 1

Shannon Taylor (D) vs Rob Wittman (R)

Inside Elections: R Tilt FiftyPlusOne: D Lean DDHQ / The Hill: R Lean Race to the WH: Toss-up

House

Wisconsin 1

Mitchell Berman (D) vs Bryan Steil (R)

Inside Elections: R Lean FiftyPlusOne: D Lean DDHQ / The Hill: R Lean Race to the WH: R Lean

30 more races where one calls it and another says Toss-up

RaceInside ElectionsFiftyPlusOneDDHQ / The HillRace to the WH
Alaska SenateToss-upD LeanToss-upToss-up
California 22 (House)Toss-upD LikelyD LikelyD Likely
Colorado 3 (House)R LikelyToss-upR LeanR Likely
Colorado 5 (House)Toss-upToss-upR LikelyR Tilt
Florida 7 (House)R LikelyR LeanR LeanToss-up
Florida 9 (House)R LikelyR LikelyR LeanToss-up
Georgia governorD Tiltnot ratednot ratedToss-up
Iowa 1 (House)D TiltD LikelyD LikelyToss-up
Kentucky 6 (House)Toss-upR LeanR LeanToss-up
Maine SenateToss-upD LeanD LeanD Tilt
Michigan 7 (House)Toss-upD LikelyD LeanD Tilt
Missouri 2 (House)R SafeToss-upR LikelyToss-up
Montana 1 (House)Toss-upToss-upR LeanToss-up
New York 17 (House)Toss-upD LikelyToss-upD Tilt
New York 21 (House)R LeanR LikelyR LikelyToss-up
North Carolina 1 (House)D TiltD LeanToss-upD Lean
North Carolina 11 (House)D TiltD LeanToss-upD Lean
Ohio 10 (House)R LeanToss-upR LikelyR Likely
Ohio 15 (House)R LeanToss-upR LikelyR Likely
Ohio SenateD TiltToss-upToss-upD Tilt
Pennsylvania 8 (House)D TiltD LeanToss-upD Tilt
Pennsylvania 10 (House)D TiltD LikelyD LeanToss-up
South Carolina 1 (House)R TiltR LeanR LeanToss-up
South Carolina SenateR TiltR LeanR LeanToss-up
Texas 23 (House)R LikelyR LeanR LikelyToss-up
Texas 34 (House)Toss-upD LeanD LeanToss-up
Texas SenateD TiltD LeanToss-upD Lean
Washington 3 (House)Toss-upD LikelyD LikelyD Lean
Wisconsin governorD Tiltnot ratednot ratedToss-up
Wisconsin 3 (House)D TiltD LikelyD LikelyToss-up

We grade NFL experts the same way every week

Every published pick is recorded before kickoff and graded against the final score.

This week's NFL picksLeaderboardPick your experts

Late moves

258 forecast changes caught since Oct 21

A change of rating, of favorite, or of a model’s lean across 50%, in any race. Each change is sealed with the time we first saw it. Chances are rounded, so a rating can change while the number stays the same. 154 moved toward Democrats and 83 toward Republicans; 21 changed the rating label while the chance stayed the same, so they lean neither way and are not in the bar. The 7 most recent, latest first.

By forecaster: Inside Elections 64, FiftyPlusOne 87, DDHQ / The Hill 6, Race to the WH 101.

When we saw itForecasterRaceFrom → to
Nov 1, 1:10 AM ETRace to the WHTennessee governorLikely R 94.7% → Solid/Safe R 95.1%
Nov 1, 1:10 AM ETRace to the WHWisconsin governorTilt D 65.3% → Toss-up D 64.6%
Nov 1, 12:10 AM ETRace to the WHIndiana 1 (House)Likely D 95.0% → Solid/Safe D 95.0%
Nov 1, 12:10 AM ETRace to the WHMinnesota 1 (House)Toss-up R 64% → Tilt R 65%
Nov 1, 12:10 AM ETRace to the WHMissouri 2 (House)Toss-up 50% → Toss-up R 57%
Oct 31, 10:11 PM ETFiftyPlusOneIowa 2 (House)Lean D 60.1% → Toss-up D 59.7%
Oct 31, 6:08 PM ETFiftyPlusOneOhio SenateLean D 61% → Toss-up D 59%
Inside Elections’ October rating changes (90) 88 toward D, 2 toward R · per their own change dates

Dated by Inside Elections’ own change date, as its rating tables show it (Oct 1 – Oct 29). 64 of these, dated Oct 21 or later, are also in the count above with the time we first saw them; 26 dated before Oct 21 appear only here.

Their dateRaceFrom → to
Oct 29Wisconsin 3 (House)Toss-up → Tilt Democrat (toward D)
Oct 29Wisconsin 1 (House)Likely Republican → Lean Republican (toward D)
Oct 29Washington 5 (House)Solid Republican → Likely Republican (toward D)
Oct 29Virginia 7 (House)Likely Democrat → Solid Democrat (toward D)
Oct 29Virginia 5 (House)Likely Republican → Lean Republican (toward D)
Oct 29Virginia 2 (House)Toss-up → Tilt Democrat (toward D)
Oct 29Virginia 1 (House)Lean Republican → Tilt Republican (toward D)
Oct 29Texas 35 (House)Lean Republican → Toss-up (toward D)
Oct 29Texas 28 (House)Tilt Democrat → Lean Democrat (toward D)
Oct 29Texas 15 (House)Toss-up → Tilt Democrat (toward D)
Oct 29Texas 9 (House)Likely Republican → Lean Republican (toward D)
Oct 29Tennessee 9 (House)Solid Republican → Likely Republican (toward D)
Oct 29South Carolina 1 (House)Lean Republican → Tilt Republican (toward D)
Oct 29Pennsylvania 10 (House)Toss-up → Tilt Democrat (toward D)
Oct 29Pennsylvania 1 (House)Lean Republican → Toss-up (toward D)
Oct 29Oklahoma 5 (House)Solid Republican → Likely Republican (toward D)
Oct 29Ohio 15 (House)Likely Republican → Lean Republican (toward D)
Oct 29Ohio 10 (House)Solid Republican → Lean Republican (toward D)
Oct 29Ohio 9 (House)Toss-up → Tilt Democrat (toward D)
Oct 29Ohio 7 (House)Toss-up → Tilt Democrat (toward D)
Oct 29Ohio 1 (House)Tilt Democrat → Lean Democrat (toward D)
Oct 29Nevada 2 (House)Lean Republican → Tilt Republican (toward D)
Oct 29New Jersey 2 (House)Solid Republican → Likely Republican (toward D)
Oct 29New Hampshire 2 (House)Likely Democrat → Solid Democrat (toward D)
Oct 29North Carolina 13 (House)Solid Republican → Likely Republican (toward D)
Oct 29North Carolina 11 (House)Toss-up → Tilt Democrat (toward D)
Oct 29North Carolina 9 (House)Solid Republican → Likely Republican (toward D)
Oct 29North Carolina 3 (House)Solid Republican → Likely Republican (toward D)
Oct 29North Carolina 1 (House)Toss-up → Tilt Democrat (toward D)
Oct 29Montana 1 (House)Tilt Republican → Toss-up (toward D)
Oct 29Minnesota 1 (House)Likely Republican → Lean Republican (toward D)
Oct 29Michigan 4 (House)Tilt Republican → Toss-up (toward D)
Oct 29Kentucky 6 (House)Tilt Republican → Toss-up (toward D)
Oct 29Kansas 2 (House)Solid Republican → Likely Republican (toward D)
Oct 29Florida 25 (House)Toss-up → Tilt Democrat (toward D)
Oct 29Florida 22 (House)Tilt Republican → Toss-up (toward D)
Oct 29Florida 14 (House)Toss-up → Tilt Democrat (toward D)
Oct 29Colorado 8 (House)Toss-up → Tilt Democrat (toward D)
Oct 29Colorado 5 (House)Tilt Republican → Toss-up (toward D)
Oct 29Colorado 4 (House)Solid Republican → Likely Republican (toward D)
Oct 29California 45 (House)Likely Democrat → Solid Democrat (toward D)
Oct 29California 6 (House)Lean Democrat → Likely Democrat (toward D)
Oct 29Arizona 6 (House)Toss-up → Tilt Democrat (toward D)
Oct 29Arizona 2 (House)Likely Republican → Lean Republican (toward D)
Oct 29Alabama 2 (House)Lean Republican → Tilt Republican (toward D)
Oct 29Wisconsin governorToss-up → Tilt Democrat (toward D)
Oct 29Texas governorLean Republican → Tilt Republican (toward D)
Oct 29Tennessee governorSolid Republican → Likely Republican (toward D)
Oct 29Oregon governorLean Democrat → Tilt Democrat (toward R)
Oct 29Ohio governorToss-up → Tilt Democrat (toward D)
Oct 29Nevada governorTilt Republican → Toss-up (toward D)
Oct 29Michigan governorTilt Democrat → Lean Democrat (toward D)
Oct 29Iowa governorTilt Democrat → Lean Democrat (toward D)
Oct 29Georgia governorToss-up → Tilt Democrat (toward D)
Oct 29Alaska governorToss-up → Tilt Democrat (toward D)
Oct 29Texas SenateToss-up → Tilt Democrat (toward D)
Oct 29South Carolina SenateLean Republican → Tilt Republican (toward D)
Oct 29Ohio SenateToss-up → Tilt Democrat (toward D)
Oct 29Nebraska SenateLean Republican → Tilt Republican (toward D)
Oct 29Mississippi SenateSolid Republican → Likely Republican (toward D)
Oct 29Louisiana SenateSolid Republican → Likely Republican (toward D)
Oct 29Kansas SenateTilt Republican → Toss-up (toward D)
Oct 29Iowa SenateTilt Republican → Toss-up (toward D)
Oct 29Georgia SenateLean Democrat → Likely Democrat (toward D)
Oct 15Florida SenateSolid Republican → Likely Republican (toward D)
Oct 15Pennsylvania 7 (House)Toss-up → Tilt Democrat (toward D)
Oct 15Vermont governorSolid Republican → Likely Republican (toward D)
Oct 15New Hampshire SenateToss-up → Tilt Democrat (toward D)
Oct 15Wyoming at-large (House)Solid Republican → Likely Republican (toward D)
Oct 15Pennsylvania 8 (House)Toss-up → Tilt Democrat (toward D)
Oct 15Nebraska governorSolid Republican → Likely Republican (toward D)
Oct 15New York 21 (House)Likely Republican → Lean Republican (toward D)
Oct 15New York 19 (House)Likely Democrat → Solid Democrat (toward D)
Oct 15New Jersey 9 (House)Likely Democrat → Solid Democrat (toward D)
Oct 15Nebraska 2 (House)Tilt Democrat → Lean Democrat (toward D)
Oct 15Nebraska 1 (House)Solid Republican → Likely Republican (toward D)
Oct 15Maine 2 (House)Likely Republican → Lean Republican (toward D)
Oct 15Indiana 5 (House)Solid Republican → Likely Republican (toward D)
Oct 15Iowa 2 (House)Tilt Republican → Toss-up (toward D)
Oct 15Arkansas 2 (House)Solid Republican → Likely Republican (toward D)
Oct 15Arizona 1 (House)Toss-up → Tilt Democrat (toward D)
Oct 1Iowa 3 (House)Toss-up → Tilt Democrat (toward D)
Oct 1Iowa 1 (House)Toss-up → Tilt Democrat (toward D)
Oct 1Florida 13 (House)Likely Republican → Lean Republican (toward D)
Oct 1California 22 (House)Tilt Republican → Toss-up (toward D)
Oct 1Oklahoma governorSolid Republican → Likely Republican (toward D)
Oct 1North Carolina SenateTilt Democrat → Lean Democrat (toward D)
Oct 1Minnesota SenateLikely Democrat → Lean Democrat (toward R)
Oct 1Michigan SenateToss-up → Tilt Democrat (toward D)
Oct 1Alaska SenateTilt Republican → Toss-up (toward D)

Who we grade

Three schools of forecasting

An insider’s judgment, two polling models and a model that also reads prediction markets. After Nov 3: which approach called the close races best?

Expert handicapping

Inside Elections

Ratings by Nathan L. Gonzales and the Inside Elections team: race-by-race reporting, no computer simulation.

Senate, House, Governors.

Their forecast →

Polling model

FiftyPlusOne

Built by G. Elliott Morris’s team: polls, fundamentals and expert ratings blended into win chances.

Senate and House; no governor forecast.

Their forecast →

Model with a market input

DDHQ / The Hill

Decision Desk HQ’s model, led by Scott Tranter: fundamentals and polls, with prediction-market prices as one input.

Senate and House.

Their forecast →

Polling model

Race to the WH

Built by Logan Phillips: polls plus fundamentals, tested against past election cycles.

Senate, House, Governors.

Their forecast →

Also graded

Cook, Sabato, Silver and more

Cook Political Report Sabato's Crystal Ball Split Ticket Fox News Almanac of American Politics Silver Bulletin NBC News RealClearPolitics The Economist Decision Desk HQ (ratings)

Their ratings come from the public rating tables on Wikipedia and from 270toWin’s per-outlet maps, as they stood at the final seal. They get their own table on the scoreboard.

How we grade

The rules, set before the vote

  1. Battlegrounds only. Races where any forecaster says Lean, Tilt or Toss-up, or gives the favorite under 75%.
  2. Same rule for all four. Each is graded on the rating it published. Toss-up counts as no call for everyone, including a model’s 51% inside a Toss-up label.
  3. Points. Right 1 · no call ½ · wrong 0. A Toss-up stays in the count at half a point.
  1. Same races. The main table compares all four on the Senate and House races they all forecast. Governors get their own tab.
  2. Forced call. A second record for the three models: whoever they give more than 50% is their pick; an exact 50–50 is a tie.
  3. Called means called. A race counts once a winner is called; runoffs in Georgia (Dec 1) and Louisiana (Dec 12) count when decided.

Full rules

9 same-party races, not graded 8 Democrat-vs-Democrat and 1 Republican-vs-Republican

In a top-two primary state the two leading candidates advance whatever their party. In these races both are from the same party, so the winning party is known before the vote. They are left out of the battlegrounds and the scoreboard.

  • California 4 (House) · Democrat vs Democrat
    Mike Thompson (D) vs Eric Jones (D)
  • California 7 (House) · Democrat vs Democrat
    Doris Matsui (D) vs Mai Vang (D)
  • California 11 (House) · Democrat vs Democrat
    Connie Chan (D) vs Scott Wiener (D)
  • California 12 (House) · Democrat vs Democrat
    Lateefah Simon (D) vs Jamie Joyce (D)
  • California 14 (House) · Democrat vs Democrat
    Aisha Wahab (D) vs Melissa Hernandez (D)
  • California 29 (House) · Democrat vs Democrat
    Angélica Dueñas (D) vs Luz Rivas (D)
  • California 34 (House) · Democrat vs Democrat
    Jimmy Gomez (D) vs Angela Gonzales-Torres (D)
  • California 37 (House) · Democrat vs Democrat
    Sydney Kamlager Dove (D) vs Samantha Mota (D)
  • California 40 (House) · Republican vs Republican
    Ken Calvert (R) vs Young Kim (R)

Schedule

When the scoreboard opens

Nov 3 · 5:35 AM ET

First seal, before polls open.

Nov 3 · 5:35 PM ET

Final seal before the first polls close. These are the graded forecasts.

Nov 3 · from 9 PM ET

Live scoreboard as races are called.

December

Final results after certification and runoffs.

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Four election forecasters disagree on 38 races. See who was right after Nov 3.

We grade NFL experts the same way every week

Every published pick is recorded before kickoff and graded against the final score.

This week's NFL picksLeaderboardPick your experts