Governor · Michigan · Before the vote
Michigan governor race: what the forecasters say
Jocelyn Benson (D) vs John James (R) · candidates as listed by Race to the WH
The seat is held by a Democrat. Inside Elections and Race to the WH favor the Democrat. They lean the same way, but at least one rates the race close, so it is graded as a battleground. 2 rating changes caught since Oct 21, the latest Oct 30, 2:10 AM ET.
Right now
Each forecaster’s current rating
The latest rating each outlet has published, as recorded and sealed Nov 1, 5:10 AM ET. Ratings are shown in each outlet’s own words.
| Forecaster | Rating | Side | As of | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Inside Elections | Lean Democrat | D Lean | Oct 29 | Their governor forecast → |
| FiftyPlusOne | does not forecast governor races | |||
| DDHQ / The Hill | does not forecast governor races | |||
| Race to the WH | Likely D | D Likely | Oct 31 | Their governor forecast → |
Rating history
Changes since Oct 21 (2)
A change of rating, of favorite, or of a model’s lean across 50%. Each change is sealed with the time we first saw it. Chances are rounded, so a rating can change while the number stays the same.
| When we saw it | Forecaster | From → to |
|---|---|---|
| Oct 30, 2:10 AM ET | Race to the WH | Lean D 84.8% → Likely D 85.1% (toward D) |
| Oct 29, 2:08 PM ET | Inside Elections | Tilt D → Lean D (toward D) |
Inside Elections dates its last change here Oct 29, by its own change date: Tilt Democrat → Lean Democrat. That is the change in the table above: we first saw it Oct 29, 2:08 PM ET.
Same state
Other battlegrounds in Michigan
- Michigan Senate
Abdul El-Sayed (D) vs Mike Rogers (R) - Michigan 4 (House)
Sean McCann (D) vs Bill Huizenga (R) - Michigan 7 (House)
William Lawrence (D) vs Tom Barrett (R) - Michigan 10 (House)
Christina Hines (D) vs Michael Bouchard (R)
How this race will be graded
Every forecast on this page is sealed before the vote. Once the race is called, a right call earns 1 point, a Toss-up ½ and a wrong call 0, the same rule for both. Cook, Sabato, Silver and other raters get their own table on the scoreboard.
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