Senate · Michigan · Before the vote
Michigan Senate race: what the forecasters say
Abdul El-Sayed (D) vs Mike Rogers (R) · candidates as listed by DDHQ / The Hill
The seat is held by a Democrat. Inside Elections, FiftyPlusOne, DDHQ / The Hill and Race to the WH favor the Democrat. They lean the same way, but at least one rates the race close, so it is graded as a battleground. 1 rating change caught since Oct 21, the latest Oct 27, 10:09 AM ET.
Right now
Each forecaster’s current rating
The latest rating each outlet has published, as recorded and sealed Nov 1, 5:10 AM ET. Ratings are shown in each outlet’s own words.
| Forecaster | Rating | Side | As of | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Inside Elections | Tilt Democrat | D Tilt | Oct 1 | Their Senate forecast → |
| FiftyPlusOne | Lean D | D Lean | recorded Nov 1, 5:10 AM ET | Their Senate forecast → |
| DDHQ / The Hill | Lean D | D Lean | Oct 31 | Their Senate forecast → |
| Race to the WH | Likely D | D Likely | Oct 31 | Their Senate forecast → |
Rating history
Changes since Oct 21 (1)
A change of rating, of favorite, or of a model’s lean across 50%. Each change is sealed with the time we first saw it. Chances are rounded, so a rating can change while the number stays the same.
| When we saw it | Forecaster | From → to |
|---|---|---|
| Oct 27, 10:09 AM ET | Race to the WH | Lean D 84% → Likely D 86% (toward D) |
No change since Oct 21: Inside Elections, FiftyPlusOne and DDHQ / The Hill.
Inside Elections dates its last change here Oct 1, by its own change date: Toss-up → Tilt Democrat. That is before our monitoring began on Oct 21, so it is not in the count above.
Same state
Other battlegrounds in Michigan
- Michigan governor
Jocelyn Benson (D) vs John James (R) - Michigan 4 (House)
Sean McCann (D) vs Bill Huizenga (R) - Michigan 7 (House)
William Lawrence (D) vs Tom Barrett (R) - Michigan 10 (House)
Christina Hines (D) vs Michael Bouchard (R)
How this race will be graded
Every forecast on this page is sealed before the vote. Once the race is called, a right call earns 1 point, a Toss-up ½ and a wrong call 0, the same rule for all four. Cook, Sabato, Silver and other raters get their own table on the scoreboard.
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