House · Michigan · Before the vote
Michigan 10th District (MI-10): what the forecasters say
Christina Hines (D) vs Michael Bouchard (R) · candidates as listed by DDHQ / The Hill
The seat is held by a Republican. FiftyPlusOne favors the Democrat; Inside Elections favors the Republican; DDHQ / The Hill and Race to the WH rate it a Toss-up. That is a head-on clash: the forecasters name opposite winners. 2 rating changes caught since Oct 21, the latest Oct 26, 2:07 PM ET.
Right now
Each forecaster’s current rating
The latest rating each outlet has published, as recorded and sealed Nov 1, 5:10 AM ET. Ratings are shown in each outlet’s own words.
| Forecaster | Rating | Side | As of | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Inside Elections | Tilt Republican | R Tilt | Dec 5, 2025 | Their House forecast → |
| FiftyPlusOne | Lean Dem | D Lean | recorded Nov 1, 5:10 AM ET | Their House forecast → |
| DDHQ / The Hill | Toss Up | Toss-up | Oct 14 | Their House forecast → |
| Race to the WH | Tossup | Toss-up | Oct 31 | Their House forecast → |
Rating history
Changes since Oct 21 (2)
A change of rating, of favorite, or of a model’s lean across 50%. Each change is sealed with the time we first saw it. Chances are rounded, so a rating can change while the number stays the same.
| When we saw it | Forecaster | From → to |
|---|---|---|
| Oct 26, 2:07 PM ET | Race to the WH | Toss-up 50% → Toss-up R 54% (toward R) |
| Oct 26, 12:12 PM ET | FiftyPlusOne | Likely D 76% → Lean D 67% (toward R) |
No change since Oct 21: Inside Elections and DDHQ / The Hill.
Inside Elections dates its rating here Dec 5, 2025, by its own date column: the rating has not changed since then. Our record shows no change since Oct 21.
Same state
Other battlegrounds in Michigan
- Michigan Senate
Abdul El-Sayed (D) vs Mike Rogers (R) - Michigan governor
Jocelyn Benson (D) vs John James (R) - Michigan 4 (House)
Sean McCann (D) vs Bill Huizenga (R) - Michigan 7 (House)
William Lawrence (D) vs Tom Barrett (R)
How this race will be graded
Every forecast on this page is sealed before the vote. Once the race is called, a right call earns 1 point, a Toss-up ½ and a wrong call 0, the same rule for all four. Cook, Sabato, Silver and other raters get their own table on the scoreboard.
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