Senate · special election · Florida · Before the vote
Florida Senate race: what the forecasters say
Angie Nixon (D) vs Ashley Moody (R) · candidates as listed by DDHQ / The Hill
The seat is held by a Republican. Inside Elections, FiftyPlusOne, DDHQ / The Hill and Race to the WH favor the Republican. They lean the same way, but at least one rates the race close, so it is graded as a battleground. 2 rating changes caught since Oct 21, the latest Oct 25, 4:10 PM ET.
Right now
Each forecaster’s current rating
The latest rating each outlet has published, as recorded and sealed Nov 1, 5:10 AM ET. Ratings are shown in each outlet’s own words.
| Forecaster | Rating | Side | As of | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Inside Elections | Likely Republican | R Likely | Oct 15 | Their Senate forecast → |
| FiftyPlusOne | Likely R | R Likely | recorded Nov 1, 5:10 AM ET | Their Senate forecast → |
| DDHQ / The Hill | Likely R | R Likely | Oct 31 | Their Senate forecast → |
| Race to the WH | Lean R | R Lean | Oct 31 | Their Senate forecast → |
Rating history
Changes since Oct 21 (2)
A change of rating, of favorite, or of a model’s lean across 50%. Each change is sealed with the time we first saw it. Chances are rounded, so a rating can change while the number stays the same.
| When we saw it | Forecaster | From → to |
|---|---|---|
| Oct 25, 4:10 PM ET | FiftyPlusOne | Lean R 74% → Likely R 75% (toward R) |
| Oct 24, 12:12 PM ET | FiftyPlusOne | Likely R 75% → Lean R 74% (toward D) |
No change since Oct 21: Inside Elections, DDHQ / The Hill and Race to the WH.
Inside Elections dates its last change here Oct 15, by its own change date: Solid Republican → Likely Republican. That is before our monitoring began on Oct 21, so it is not in the count above.
Same state
Other battlegrounds in Florida
- Florida governor
David Jolly (D) vs Byron Donalds (R) - Florida 2 (House)
Amanda Green (D) vs Austin Rogers (R) - Florida 7 (House)
Bale Dalton (D) vs Ryan Elijah (R) - Florida 9 (House)
Darren Soto (D) vs Dan Green (R) - Florida 13 (House)
Leela Gray (D) vs Anna Paulina Luna (R) - Florida 14 (House)
Kathy Castor (D) vs Mike Beltran (R) - Florida 16 (House)
Kelly Kirschner (D) vs Sydney Gruters (R) - Florida 22 (House)
Pia Dandiya (D) vs Casey Askar (R) - Florida 25 (House)
Jared Moskowitz (D) vs Scott Singer (R) - Florida 27 (House)
Eliott Rodriguez (D) vs Maria Salazar (R)
How this race will be graded
Every forecast on this page is sealed before the vote. Once the race is called, a right call earns 1 point, a Toss-up ½ and a wrong call 0, the same rule for all four. Cook, Sabato, Silver and other raters get their own table on the scoreboard.
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