House · New York · Before the vote

New York 1st District (NY-1): what the forecasters say

Christopher Gallant (D) vs Nicholas LaLota (R) · candidates as listed by DDHQ / The Hill

The seat is held by a Republican. Inside Elections, FiftyPlusOne, DDHQ / The Hill and Race to the WH favor the Republican. They lean the same way, but at least one rates the race close, so it is graded as a battleground. No rating change caught here since Oct 21.

Result: after Nov 3. Once the race is called, the result appears on this page, and each forecaster’s final rating, sealed before the polls close, is graded under the published rules.

✓ Sealed Nov 1, 5:10 AM ET · Verify

Right now

Each forecaster’s current rating

The latest rating each outlet has published, as recorded and sealed Nov 1, 5:10 AM ET. Ratings are shown in each outlet’s own words.

Forecaster	Rating	Side	As of	Source
Inside Elections	Solid Republican	R Safe	Dec 5, 2025	Their House forecast →
FiftyPlusOne	Lean Rep	R Lean	recorded Nov 1, 5:10 AM ET	Their House forecast →
DDHQ / The Hill	Lean R	R Lean	Oct 14	Their House forecast →
Race to the WH	Lean R	R Lean	Oct 31	Their House forecast →

Rating history

Changes since Oct 21 (0)

A change of rating, of favorite, or of a model’s lean across 50%. Each change is sealed with the time we first saw it. Chances are rounded, so a rating can change while the number stays the same.

Unchanged since Oct 21: Inside Elections, FiftyPlusOne, DDHQ / The Hill and Race to the WH.

Inside Elections dates its rating here Dec 5, 2025, by its own date column: the rating has not changed since then. Our record shows no change since Oct 21.

Same state

Other battlegrounds in New York

New York 3 (House)
Tom Suozzi (D) vs Michael LiPetri Jr. (R)
New York 4 (House)
Laura Gillen (D) vs Jeanine Driscoll (R)
New York 17 (House)
Cait Conley (D) vs Michael Lawler (R)
New York 21 (House)
Blake Gendebien (D) vs Anthony Constantino (R)

How this race will be graded

Every forecast on this page is sealed before the vote. Once the race is called, a right call earns 1 point, a Toss-up ½ and a wrong call 0, the same rule for all four. Cook, Sabato, Silver and other raters get their own table on the scoreboard.

Full rules · Check the seal · All 98 battleground races

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