House · New York · Before the vote
New York 4th District (NY-4): what the forecasters say
Laura Gillen (D) vs Jeanine Driscoll (R) · candidates as listed by DDHQ / The Hill
The seat is held by a Democrat. Inside Elections, FiftyPlusOne, DDHQ / The Hill and Race to the WH favor the Democrat. They lean the same way, but at least one rates the race close, so it is graded as a battleground. 1 rating change caught since Oct 21, the latest Oct 26, 10:09 PM ET.
Right now
Each forecaster’s current rating
The latest rating each outlet has published, as recorded and sealed Nov 1, 5:10 AM ET. Ratings are shown in each outlet’s own words.
| Forecaster | Rating | Side | As of | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Inside Elections | Tilt Democrat | D Tilt | Dec 5, 2025 | Their House forecast → |
| FiftyPlusOne | Safe Dem | D Safe | recorded Nov 1, 5:10 AM ET | Their House forecast → |
| DDHQ / The Hill | Likely D | D Likely | Oct 14 | Their House forecast → |
| Race to the WH | Safe D | D Safe | Oct 31 | Their House forecast → |
Rating history
Changes since Oct 21 (1)
A change of rating, of favorite, or of a model’s lean across 50%. Each change is sealed with the time we first saw it. Chances are rounded, so a rating can change while the number stays the same.
| When we saw it | Forecaster | From → to |
|---|---|---|
| Oct 26, 10:09 PM ET | Race to the WH | Likely D 90% → Solid/Safe D 95% (toward D) |
No change since Oct 21: Inside Elections, FiftyPlusOne and DDHQ / The Hill.
Inside Elections dates its rating here Dec 5, 2025, by its own date column: the rating has not changed since then. Our record shows no change since Oct 21.
Same state
Other battlegrounds in New York
- New York 1 (House)
Christopher Gallant (D) vs Nicholas LaLota (R) - New York 3 (House)
Tom Suozzi (D) vs Michael LiPetri Jr. (R) - New York 17 (House)
Cait Conley (D) vs Michael Lawler (R) - New York 21 (House)
Blake Gendebien (D) vs Anthony Constantino (R)
How this race will be graded
Every forecast on this page is sealed before the vote. Once the race is called, a right call earns 1 point, a Toss-up ½ and a wrong call 0, the same rule for all four. Cook, Sabato, Silver and other raters get their own table on the scoreboard.
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