House · New York · Before the vote
New York 21st District (NY-21): what the forecasters say
Blake Gendebien (D) vs Anthony Constantino (R) · candidates as listed by DDHQ / The Hill
The seat is held by a Republican. Inside Elections, FiftyPlusOne and DDHQ / The Hill favor the Republican; Race to the WH rates it a Toss-up. They split: at least one names a favorite while another calls it a Toss-up. 1 rating change caught since Oct 21, the latest Oct 26, 10:09 PM ET.
Right now
Each forecaster’s current rating
The latest rating each outlet has published, as recorded and sealed Nov 1, 5:10 AM ET. Ratings are shown in each outlet’s own words.
| Forecaster | Rating | Side | As of | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Inside Elections | Lean Republican | R Lean | Oct 15 | Their House forecast → |
| FiftyPlusOne | Likely Rep | R Likely | recorded Nov 1, 5:10 AM ET | Their House forecast → |
| DDHQ / The Hill | Likely R | R Likely | Oct 14 | Their House forecast → |
| Race to the WH | Tossup | Toss-up | Oct 31 | Their House forecast → |
Rating history
Changes since Oct 21 (1)
A change of rating, of favorite, or of a model’s lean across 50%. Each change is sealed with the time we first saw it. Chances are rounded, so a rating can change while the number stays the same.
| When we saw it | Forecaster | From → to |
|---|---|---|
| Oct 26, 10:09 PM ET | Race to the WH | Tilt R 67% → Toss-up R 62% (toward D) |
No change since Oct 21: Inside Elections, FiftyPlusOne and DDHQ / The Hill.
Inside Elections dates its last change here Oct 15, by its own change date: Likely Republican → Lean Republican. That is before our monitoring began on Oct 21, so it is not in the count above.
Same state
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Laura Gillen (D) vs Jeanine Driscoll (R) - New York 17 (House)
Cait Conley (D) vs Michael Lawler (R)
How this race will be graded
Every forecast on this page is sealed before the vote. Once the race is called, a right call earns 1 point, a Toss-up ½ and a wrong call 0, the same rule for all four. Cook, Sabato, Silver and other raters get their own table on the scoreboard.
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