House · New York · Before the vote
New York 17th District (NY-17): what the forecasters say
Cait Conley (D) vs Michael Lawler (R) · candidates as listed by DDHQ / The Hill
The seat is held by a Republican. FiftyPlusOne and Race to the WH favor the Democrat; Inside Elections and DDHQ / The Hill rate it a Toss-up. They split: at least one names a favorite while another calls it a Toss-up. 3 rating changes caught since Oct 21, the latest Oct 31, 2:08 PM ET.
Right now
Each forecaster’s current rating
The latest rating each outlet has published, as recorded and sealed Nov 1, 5:10 AM ET. Ratings are shown in each outlet’s own words.
| Forecaster | Rating | Side | As of | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Inside Elections | Toss-up | Toss-up | Dec 5, 2025 | Their House forecast → |
| FiftyPlusOne | Likely Dem | D Likely | recorded Nov 1, 5:10 AM ET | Their House forecast → |
| DDHQ / The Hill | Toss Up | Toss-up | Oct 14 | Their House forecast → |
| Race to the WH | Tilt D | D Tilt | Oct 31 | Their House forecast → |
Rating history
Changes since Oct 21 (3)
A change of rating, of favorite, or of a model’s lean across 50%. Each change is sealed with the time we first saw it. Chances are rounded, so a rating can change while the number stays the same.
| When we saw it | Forecaster | From → to |
|---|---|---|
| Oct 31, 2:08 PM ET | Race to the WH | Toss-up D 65% → Tilt D 67% (toward D) |
| Oct 27, 2:10 PM ET | Race to the WH | Tilt D 66% → Toss-up D 64% (toward R) |
| Oct 25, 2:11 AM ET | Race to the WH | Toss-up D 65.0% → Tilt D 65.0% |
No change since Oct 21: Inside Elections, FiftyPlusOne and DDHQ / The Hill.
Inside Elections dates its rating here Dec 5, 2025, by its own date column: the rating has not changed since then. Our record shows no change since Oct 21.
Same state
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Laura Gillen (D) vs Jeanine Driscoll (R) - New York 21 (House)
Blake Gendebien (D) vs Anthony Constantino (R)
How this race will be graded
Every forecast on this page is sealed before the vote. Once the race is called, a right call earns 1 point, a Toss-up ½ and a wrong call 0, the same rule for all four. Cook, Sabato, Silver and other raters get their own table on the scoreboard.
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