Governor · Arizona · Before the vote
Arizona governor race: what the forecasters say
Katie Hobbs (D) vs Andy Biggs (R) · candidates as listed by Race to the WH
The seat is held by a Democrat. Inside Elections and Race to the WH favor the Democrat. They lean the same way, but at least one rates the race close, so it is graded as a battleground. 3 rating changes caught since Oct 21, the latest Oct 31, 4:12 PM ET.
Right now
Each forecaster’s current rating
The latest rating each outlet has published, as recorded and sealed Nov 1, 5:10 AM ET. Ratings are shown in each outlet’s own words.
| Forecaster | Rating | Side | As of | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Inside Elections | Tilt Democrat | D Tilt | Sep 3 | Their governor forecast → |
| FiftyPlusOne | does not forecast governor races | |||
| DDHQ / The Hill | does not forecast governor races | |||
| Race to the WH | Likely D | D Likely | Oct 31 | Their governor forecast → |
Rating history
Changes since Oct 21 (3)
A change of rating, of favorite, or of a model’s lean across 50%. Each change is sealed with the time we first saw it. Chances are rounded, so a rating can change while the number stays the same.
| When we saw it | Forecaster | From → to |
|---|---|---|
| Oct 31, 4:12 PM ET | Race to the WH | Lean D 85.0% → Likely D 85.0% |
| Oct 31, 2:09 PM ET | Race to the WH | Likely D 85.1% → Lean D 85.0% (toward R) |
| Oct 31, 2:08 AM ET | Race to the WH | Lean D 84% → Likely D 85% (toward D) |
No change since Oct 21: Inside Elections.
Inside Elections dates its last change here Sep 3, by its own change date: Toss-up → Tilt Democrat. That is before our monitoring began on Oct 21, so it is not in the count above.
Same state
Other battlegrounds in Arizona
- Arizona 1 (House)
Amish Shah (D) vs Jay Feely (R) - Arizona 2 (House)
Jonathan Nez (D) vs Eli Crane (R) - Arizona 6 (House)
Joanna Mendoza (D) vs Juan Ciscomani (R)
How this race will be graded
Every forecast on this page is sealed before the vote. Once the race is called, a right call earns 1 point, a Toss-up ½ and a wrong call 0, the same rule for both. Cook, Sabato, Silver and other raters get their own table on the scoreboard.
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