House · Arizona · Before the vote

Arizona 1st District (AZ-1): what the forecasters say

Amish Shah (D) vs Jay Feely (R) · candidates as listed by DDHQ / The Hill

The seat is held by a Republican. Inside Elections, FiftyPlusOne, DDHQ / The Hill and Race to the WH favor the Democrat. They lean the same way, but at least one rates the race close, so it is graded as a battleground. 1 rating change caught since Oct 21, the latest Oct 26, 2:07 PM ET.

Result: after Nov 3. Once the race is called, the result appears on this page, and each forecaster’s final rating, sealed before the polls close, is graded under the published rules.

✓ Sealed Nov 1, 5:10 AM ET · Verify

Right now

Each forecaster’s current rating

The latest rating each outlet has published, as recorded and sealed Nov 1, 5:10 AM ET. Ratings are shown in each outlet’s own words.

Forecaster	Rating	Side	As of	Source
Inside Elections	Tilt Democrat	D Tilt	Oct 15	Their House forecast →
FiftyPlusOne	Likely Dem	D Likely	recorded Nov 1, 5:10 AM ET	Their House forecast →
DDHQ / The Hill	Lean D	D Lean	Oct 14	Their House forecast →
Race to the WH	Tilt D	D Tilt	Oct 31	Their House forecast →

Rating history

Changes since Oct 21 (1)

A change of rating, of favorite, or of a model’s lean across 50%. Each change is sealed with the time we first saw it. Chances are rounded, so a rating can change while the number stays the same.

When we saw it	Forecaster	From → to
Oct 26, 2:07 PM ET	Race to the WH	Toss-up D 63% → Tilt D 66% (toward D)

No change since Oct 21: Inside Elections, FiftyPlusOne and DDHQ / The Hill.

Inside Elections dates its last change here Oct 15, by its own change date: Toss-up → Tilt Democrat. That is before our monitoring began on Oct 21, so it is not in the count above.

Same state

Other battlegrounds in Arizona

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Katie Hobbs (D) vs Andy Biggs (R)
Arizona 2 (House)
Jonathan Nez (D) vs Eli Crane (R)
Arizona 6 (House)
Joanna Mendoza (D) vs Juan Ciscomani (R)

How this race will be graded

Every forecast on this page is sealed before the vote. Once the race is called, a right call earns 1 point, a Toss-up ½ and a wrong call 0, the same rule for all four. Cook, Sabato, Silver and other raters get their own table on the scoreboard.

Full rules · Check the seal · All 98 battleground races

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