House · Kentucky · Before the vote
Kentucky 6th District (KY-6): what the forecasters say
Zach Dembo (D) vs Ralph Alvarado (R) · candidates as listed by DDHQ / The Hill
The seat is held by a Republican. FiftyPlusOne and DDHQ / The Hill favor the Republican; Inside Elections and Race to the WH rate it a Toss-up. They split: at least one names a favorite while another calls it a Toss-up. 8 rating changes caught since Oct 21, the latest Oct 31, 2:08 PM ET.
Right now
Each forecaster’s current rating
The latest rating each outlet has published, as recorded and sealed Nov 1, 5:10 AM ET. Ratings are shown in each outlet’s own words.
| Forecaster | Rating | Side | As of | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Inside Elections | Toss-up | Toss-up | Oct 29 | Their House forecast → |
| FiftyPlusOne | Lean Rep | R Lean | recorded Nov 1, 5:10 AM ET | Their House forecast → |
| DDHQ / The Hill | Lean R | R Lean | Oct 14 | Their House forecast → |
| Race to the WH | Tossup | Toss-up | Oct 31 | Their House forecast → |
Rating history
Changes since Oct 21 (8)
A change of rating, of favorite, or of a model’s lean across 50%. Each change is sealed with the time we first saw it. Chances are rounded, so a rating can change while the number stays the same.
| When we saw it | Forecaster | From → to |
|---|---|---|
| Oct 31, 2:08 PM ET | Race to the WH | Toss-up D 51% → Toss-up R 55% (toward R) |
| Oct 29, 2:07 PM ET | Inside Elections | Tilt R → Toss-up (toward D) |
| Oct 26, 10:09 PM ET | Race to the WH | Toss-up 50% → Toss-up D 53% (toward D) |
| Oct 22, 10:09 PM ET | FiftyPlusOne | Toss-up R 59% → Lean R 60% (toward R) |
| Oct 22, 6:07 PM ET | FiftyPlusOne | Lean R 60% → Toss-up R 59% (toward D) |
| Oct 22, 12:08 PM ET | FiftyPlusOne | Toss-up R 60% → Lean R 61% (toward R) |
| Oct 21, 10:08 PM ET | FiftyPlusOne | Lean R 60.1% → Toss-up R 59.7% (toward D) |
| Oct 21, 6:06 PM ET | FiftyPlusOne | Toss-up R 59% → Lean R 60% (toward R) |
No change since Oct 21: DDHQ / The Hill.
Inside Elections dates its last change here Oct 29, by its own change date: Tilt Republican → Toss-up. That is the change in the table above: we first saw it Oct 29, 2:07 PM ET.
How this race will be graded
Every forecast on this page is sealed before the vote. Once the race is called, a right call earns 1 point, a Toss-up ½ and a wrong call 0, the same rule for all four. Cook, Sabato, Silver and other raters get their own table on the scoreboard.
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