Senate · North Carolina · Before the vote

North Carolina Senate race: what the forecasters say

Roy Cooper (D) vs Michael Whatley (R) · candidates as listed by DDHQ / The Hill

The seat is held by a Republican. Inside Elections, FiftyPlusOne, DDHQ / The Hill and Race to the WH favor the Democrat. They lean the same way, but at least one rates the race close, so it is graded as a battleground. 1 rating change caught since Oct 21, the latest Oct 30, 2:06 PM ET.

Result: after Nov 3. Once the race is called, the result appears on this page, and each forecaster’s final rating, sealed before the polls close, is graded under the published rules.

✓ Sealed Nov 1, 5:10 AM ET · Verify

Right now

Each forecaster’s current rating

The latest rating each outlet has published, as recorded and sealed Nov 1, 5:10 AM ET. Ratings are shown in each outlet’s own words.

Forecaster	Rating	Side	As of	Source
Inside Elections	Lean Democrat	D Lean	Oct 1	Their Senate forecast →
FiftyPlusOne	Likely D	D Likely	recorded Nov 1, 5:10 AM ET	Their Senate forecast →
DDHQ / The Hill	Likely D	D Likely	Oct 31	Their Senate forecast →
Race to the WH	Safe D	D Safe	Oct 31	Their Senate forecast →

Rating history

Changes since Oct 21 (1)

A change of rating, of favorite, or of a model’s lean across 50%. Each change is sealed with the time we first saw it. Chances are rounded, so a rating can change while the number stays the same.

When we saw it	Forecaster	From → to
Oct 30, 2:06 PM ET	Race to the WH	Likely D 95.0% → Solid/Safe D 95.0%

No change since Oct 21: Inside Elections, FiftyPlusOne and DDHQ / The Hill.

Inside Elections dates its last change here Oct 1, by its own change date: Tilt Democrat → Lean Democrat. That is before our monitoring began on Oct 21, so it is not in the count above.

Same state

Other battlegrounds in North Carolina

North Carolina 1 (House)
Don Davis (D) vs Laurie Buckhout (R)
North Carolina 11 (House)
James Ager (D) vs Jennifer Balkcom (R)

How this race will be graded

Every forecast on this page is sealed before the vote. Once the race is called, a right call earns 1 point, a Toss-up ½ and a wrong call 0, the same rule for all four. Cook, Sabato, Silver and other raters get their own table on the scoreboard.

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