Senate · special election · Ohio · Before the vote
Ohio Senate race: what the forecasters say
Sherrod Brown (D) vs Jon Husted (R) · candidates as listed by DDHQ / The Hill
The seat is held by a Republican. Inside Elections and Race to the WH favor the Democrat; FiftyPlusOne and DDHQ / The Hill rate it a Toss-up. They split: at least one names a favorite while another calls it a Toss-up. 2 rating changes caught since Oct 21, the latest Oct 31, 6:08 PM ET.
Right now
Each forecaster’s current rating
The latest rating each outlet has published, as recorded and sealed Nov 1, 5:10 AM ET. Ratings are shown in each outlet’s own words.
| Forecaster | Rating | Side | As of | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Inside Elections | Tilt Democrat | D Tilt | Oct 29 | Their Senate forecast → |
| FiftyPlusOne | Tossup | Toss-up | recorded Nov 1, 5:10 AM ET | Their Senate forecast → |
| DDHQ / The Hill | Toss Up | Toss-up | Oct 31 | Their Senate forecast → |
| Race to the WH | Tilt D | D Tilt | Oct 31 | Their Senate forecast → |
Rating history
Changes since Oct 21 (2)
A change of rating, of favorite, or of a model’s lean across 50%. Each change is sealed with the time we first saw it. Chances are rounded, so a rating can change while the number stays the same.
| When we saw it | Forecaster | From → to |
|---|---|---|
| Oct 31, 6:08 PM ET | FiftyPlusOne | Lean D 61% → Toss-up D 59% (toward R) |
| Oct 29, 2:07 PM ET | Inside Elections | Toss-up → Tilt D (toward D) |
No change since Oct 21: DDHQ / The Hill and Race to the WH.
Inside Elections dates its last change here Oct 29, by its own change date: Toss-up → Tilt Democrat. That is the change in the table above: we first saw it Oct 29, 2:07 PM ET.
Same state
Other battlegrounds in Ohio
- Ohio governor
Amy Acton (D) vs Vivek Ramaswamy (R) - Ohio 1 (House)
Greg Landsman (D) vs Eric Conroy (R) - Ohio 7 (House)
Brian Poindexter (D) vs Max Miller (R) - Ohio 9 (House)
Marcy Kaptur (D) vs Derek Merrin (R) - Ohio 10 (House)
Kristina Knickerbocker (D) vs Michael Turner (R) - Ohio 15 (House)
Don Leonard (D) vs Mike Carey (R)
How this race will be graded
Every forecast on this page is sealed before the vote. Once the race is called, a right call earns 1 point, a Toss-up ½ and a wrong call 0, the same rule for all four. Cook, Sabato, Silver and other raters get their own table on the scoreboard.
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