House · Virginia · Before the vote
Virginia 5th District (VA-5): what the forecasters say
Tom Perriello (D) vs John McGuire III (R) · candidates as listed by DDHQ / The Hill
The seat is held by a Republican. Inside Elections, FiftyPlusOne, DDHQ / The Hill and Race to the WH favor the Republican. They lean the same way, but at least one rates the race close, so it is graded as a battleground. 1 rating change caught since Oct 21, the latest Oct 29, 2:07 PM ET.
Right now
Each forecaster’s current rating
The latest rating each outlet has published, as recorded and sealed Nov 1, 5:10 AM ET. Ratings are shown in each outlet’s own words.
| Forecaster | Rating | Side | As of | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Inside Elections | Lean Republican | R Lean | Oct 29 | Their House forecast → |
| FiftyPlusOne | Lean Rep | R Lean | recorded Nov 1, 5:10 AM ET | Their House forecast → |
| DDHQ / The Hill | Likely R | R Likely | Oct 14 | Their House forecast → |
| Race to the WH | Lean R | R Lean | Oct 31 | Their House forecast → |
Rating history
Changes since Oct 21 (1)
A change of rating, of favorite, or of a model’s lean across 50%. Each change is sealed with the time we first saw it. Chances are rounded, so a rating can change while the number stays the same.
| When we saw it | Forecaster | From → to |
|---|---|---|
| Oct 29, 2:07 PM ET | Inside Elections | Likely R → Lean R (toward D) |
No change since Oct 21: FiftyPlusOne, DDHQ / The Hill and Race to the WH.
Inside Elections dates its last change here Oct 29, by its own change date: Likely Republican → Lean Republican. That is the change in the table above: we first saw it Oct 29, 2:07 PM ET.
Same state
Other battlegrounds in Virginia
- Virginia 1 (House)
Shannon Taylor (D) vs Rob Wittman (R) - Virginia 2 (House)
Elaine Luria (D) vs Jen Kiggans (R)
How this race will be graded
Every forecast on this page is sealed before the vote. Once the race is called, a right call earns 1 point, a Toss-up ½ and a wrong call 0, the same rule for all four. Cook, Sabato, Silver and other raters get their own table on the scoreboard.
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