Senate · Alaska · Before the vote
Alaska Senate race: what the forecasters say
Mary Peltola (D) vs Dan Sullivan (R) · candidates as listed by DDHQ / The Hill
The seat is held by a Republican. FiftyPlusOne favors the Democrat; Inside Elections, DDHQ / The Hill and Race to the WH rate it a Toss-up. They split: at least one names a favorite while another calls it a Toss-up. 1 rating change caught since Oct 21, the latest Oct 29, 12:07 PM ET.
Right now
Each forecaster’s current rating
The latest rating each outlet has published, as recorded and sealed Nov 1, 5:10 AM ET. Ratings are shown in each outlet’s own words.
| Forecaster | Rating | Side | As of | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Inside Elections | Toss-up | Toss-up | Oct 1 | Their Senate forecast → |
| FiftyPlusOne | Lean D | D Lean | recorded Nov 1, 5:10 AM ET | Their Senate forecast → |
| DDHQ / The Hill | Toss Up | Toss-up | Oct 31 | Their Senate forecast → |
| Race to the WH | Toss Up | Toss-up | Oct 31 | Their Senate forecast → |
Rating history
Changes since Oct 21 (1)
A change of rating, of favorite, or of a model’s lean across 50%. Each change is sealed with the time we first saw it. Chances are rounded, so a rating can change while the number stays the same.
| When we saw it | Forecaster | From → to |
|---|---|---|
| Oct 29, 12:07 PM ET | DDHQ / The Hill | Lean D 61% → Toss-up D 60% (toward R) |
No change since Oct 21: Inside Elections, FiftyPlusOne and Race to the WH.
Inside Elections dates its last change here Oct 1, by its own change date: Tilt Republican → Toss-up. That is before our monitoring began on Oct 21, so it is not in the count above.
Same state
Other battlegrounds in Alaska
- Alaska governor
Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins (D) vs Bernadette Wilson (R) - Alaska at-large (House)
Nick Begich (R) vs Bill Hill (I)
How this race will be graded
Every forecast on this page is sealed before the vote. Once the race is called, a right call earns 1 point, a Toss-up ½ and a wrong call 0, the same rule for all four. Cook, Sabato, Silver and other raters get their own table on the scoreboard.
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