House · Texas · Before the vote
Texas 15th District (TX-15): what the forecasters say
Bobby Pulido (D) vs Monica De La Cruz (R) · candidates as listed by DDHQ / The Hill
The seat is held by a Republican. Inside Elections favors the Democrat; FiftyPlusOne favors the Republican; DDHQ / The Hill and Race to the WH rate it a Toss-up. That is a head-on clash: the forecasters name opposite winners. 2 rating changes caught since Oct 21, the latest Oct 29, 2:07 PM ET.
Right now
Each forecaster’s current rating
The latest rating each outlet has published, as recorded and sealed Nov 1, 5:10 AM ET. Ratings are shown in each outlet’s own words.
| Forecaster | Rating | Side | As of | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Inside Elections | Tilt Democrat | D Tilt | Oct 29 | Their House forecast → |
| FiftyPlusOne | Lean Rep | R Lean | recorded Nov 1, 5:10 AM ET | Their House forecast → |
| DDHQ / The Hill | Toss Up | Toss-up | Oct 14 | Their House forecast → |
| Race to the WH | Tossup | Toss-up | Oct 31 | Their House forecast → |
Rating history
Changes since Oct 21 (2)
A change of rating, of favorite, or of a model’s lean across 50%. Each change is sealed with the time we first saw it. Chances are rounded, so a rating can change while the number stays the same.
| When we saw it | Forecaster | From → to |
|---|---|---|
| Oct 29, 2:07 PM ET | Inside Elections | Toss-up → Tilt D (toward D) |
| Oct 26, 10:09 PM ET | Race to the WH | Tilt R 72% → Toss-up R 57% (toward D) |
No change since Oct 21: FiftyPlusOne and DDHQ / The Hill.
Inside Elections dates its last change here Oct 29, by its own change date: Toss-up → Tilt Democrat. That is the change in the table above: we first saw it Oct 29, 2:07 PM ET.
Same state
Other battlegrounds in Texas
- Texas Senate
James Talarico (D) vs Ken Paxton (R) - Texas governor
Gina Hinojosa (D) vs Greg Abbott (R) - Texas 9 (House)
Leticia Gutierrez (D) vs Alex Mealer (R) - Texas 23 (House)
Katy Stout (D) vs Brandon Herrera (R) - Texas 28 (House)
Henry Cuellar (D) vs Tano Tijerina (R) - Texas 34 (House)
Vicente Gonzalez (D) vs Eric Flores (R) - Texas 35 (House)
Johnny Garcia (D) vs Carlos De La Cruz (R)
How this race will be graded
Every forecast on this page is sealed before the vote. Once the race is called, a right call earns 1 point, a Toss-up ½ and a wrong call 0, the same rule for all four. Cook, Sabato, Silver and other raters get their own table on the scoreboard.
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