Senate · Texas · Before the vote
Texas Senate race: what the forecasters say
James Talarico (D) vs Ken Paxton (R) · candidates as listed by DDHQ / The Hill
The seat is held by a Republican. Inside Elections, FiftyPlusOne and Race to the WH favor the Democrat; DDHQ / The Hill rates it a Toss-up. They split: at least one names a favorite while another calls it a Toss-up. 5 rating changes caught since Oct 21, the latest Oct 29, 2:07 PM ET.
Right now
Each forecaster’s current rating
The latest rating each outlet has published, as recorded and sealed Nov 1, 5:10 AM ET. Ratings are shown in each outlet’s own words.
| Forecaster | Rating | Side | As of | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Inside Elections | Tilt Democrat | D Tilt | Oct 29 | Their Senate forecast → |
| FiftyPlusOne | Lean D | D Lean | recorded Nov 1, 5:10 AM ET | Their Senate forecast → |
| DDHQ / The Hill | Toss Up | Toss-up | Oct 31 | Their Senate forecast → |
| Race to the WH | Lean D | D Lean | Oct 31 | Their Senate forecast → |
Rating history
Changes since Oct 21 (5)
A change of rating, of favorite, or of a model’s lean across 50%. Each change is sealed with the time we first saw it. Chances are rounded, so a rating can change while the number stays the same.
| When we saw it | Forecaster | From → to |
|---|---|---|
| Oct 29, 2:07 PM ET | Inside Elections | Toss-up → Tilt D (toward D) |
| Oct 29, 12:10 PM ET | FiftyPlusOne | Toss-up D 58% → Lean D 61% (toward D) |
| Oct 26, 12:07 AM ET | Race to the WH | Tilt D 74.9% → Lean D 75.4% (toward D) |
| Oct 25, 4:07 PM ET | Race to the WH | Lean D 75.0% → Tilt D 74.9% (toward R) |
| Oct 25, 2:10 AM ET | Race to the WH | Tilt D 74.9% → Lean D 75.0% (toward D) |
No change since Oct 21: DDHQ / The Hill.
Inside Elections dates its last change here Oct 29, by its own change date: Toss-up → Tilt Democrat. That is the change in the table above: we first saw it Oct 29, 2:07 PM ET.
Same state
Other battlegrounds in Texas
- Texas governor
Gina Hinojosa (D) vs Greg Abbott (R) - Texas 9 (House)
Leticia Gutierrez (D) vs Alex Mealer (R) - Texas 15 (House)
Bobby Pulido (D) vs Monica De La Cruz (R) - Texas 23 (House)
Katy Stout (D) vs Brandon Herrera (R) - Texas 28 (House)
Henry Cuellar (D) vs Tano Tijerina (R) - Texas 34 (House)
Vicente Gonzalez (D) vs Eric Flores (R) - Texas 35 (House)
Johnny Garcia (D) vs Carlos De La Cruz (R)
How this race will be graded
Every forecast on this page is sealed before the vote. Once the race is called, a right call earns 1 point, a Toss-up ½ and a wrong call 0, the same rule for all four. Cook, Sabato, Silver and other raters get their own table on the scoreboard.
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