Governor · Texas · Before the vote
Texas governor race: what the forecasters say
Gina Hinojosa (D) vs Greg Abbott (R) · candidates as listed by Race to the WH
The seat is held by a Republican. Inside Elections and Race to the WH favor the Republican. They lean the same way, but at least one rates the race close, so it is graded as a battleground. 1 rating change caught since Oct 21, the latest Oct 29, 2:08 PM ET.
Right now
Each forecaster’s current rating
The latest rating each outlet has published, as recorded and sealed Nov 1, 5:10 AM ET. Ratings are shown in each outlet’s own words.
| Forecaster | Rating | Side | As of | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Inside Elections | Tilt Republican | R Tilt | Oct 29 | Their governor forecast → |
| FiftyPlusOne | does not forecast governor races | |||
| DDHQ / The Hill | does not forecast governor races | |||
| Race to the WH | Lean R | R Lean | Oct 31 | Their governor forecast → |
Rating history
Changes since Oct 21 (1)
A change of rating, of favorite, or of a model’s lean across 50%. Each change is sealed with the time we first saw it. Chances are rounded, so a rating can change while the number stays the same.
| When we saw it | Forecaster | From → to |
|---|---|---|
| Oct 29, 2:08 PM ET | Inside Elections | Lean R → Tilt R (toward D) |
No change since Oct 21: Race to the WH.
Inside Elections dates its last change here Oct 29, by its own change date: Lean Republican → Tilt Republican. That is the change in the table above: we first saw it Oct 29, 2:08 PM ET.
Same state
Other battlegrounds in Texas
- Texas Senate
James Talarico (D) vs Ken Paxton (R) - Texas 9 (House)
Leticia Gutierrez (D) vs Alex Mealer (R) - Texas 15 (House)
Bobby Pulido (D) vs Monica De La Cruz (R) - Texas 23 (House)
Katy Stout (D) vs Brandon Herrera (R) - Texas 28 (House)
Henry Cuellar (D) vs Tano Tijerina (R) - Texas 34 (House)
Vicente Gonzalez (D) vs Eric Flores (R) - Texas 35 (House)
Johnny Garcia (D) vs Carlos De La Cruz (R)
How this race will be graded
Every forecast on this page is sealed before the vote. Once the race is called, a right call earns 1 point, a Toss-up ½ and a wrong call 0, the same rule for both. Cook, Sabato, Silver and other raters get their own table on the scoreboard.
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