Governor · Wisconsin · Before the vote
Wisconsin governor race: what the forecasters say
David Crowley (D) vs Tom Tiffany (R) · candidates as listed by Race to the WH
The seat is held by a Democrat. Inside Elections favors the Democrat; Race to the WH rates it a Toss-up. They split: at least one names a favorite while another calls it a Toss-up. 3 rating changes caught since Oct 21, the latest Nov 1, 1:10 AM ET.
Right now
Each forecaster’s current rating
The latest rating each outlet has published, as recorded and sealed Nov 1, 5:10 AM ET. Ratings are shown in each outlet’s own words.
| Forecaster | Rating | Side | As of | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Inside Elections | Tilt Democrat | D Tilt | Oct 29 | Their governor forecast → |
| FiftyPlusOne | does not forecast governor races | |||
| DDHQ / The Hill | does not forecast governor races | |||
| Race to the WH | Toss Up | Toss-up | Oct 31 | Their governor forecast → |
Rating history
Changes since Oct 21 (3)
A change of rating, of favorite, or of a model’s lean across 50%. Each change is sealed with the time we first saw it. Chances are rounded, so a rating can change while the number stays the same.
| When we saw it | Forecaster | From → to |
|---|---|---|
| Nov 1, 1:10 AM ET | Race to the WH | Tilt D 65.3% → Toss-up D 64.6% (toward R) |
| Oct 29, 2:08 PM ET | Inside Elections | Toss-up → Tilt D (toward D) |
| Oct 28, 6:09 PM ET | Race to the WH | Toss-up D 55% → Tilt D 67% (toward D) |
Inside Elections dates its last change here Oct 29, by its own change date: Toss-up → Tilt Democrat. That is the change in the table above: we first saw it Oct 29, 2:08 PM ET.
Same state
Other battlegrounds in Wisconsin
- Wisconsin 1 (House)
Mitchell Berman (D) vs Bryan Steil (R) - Wisconsin 3 (House)
Rebecca Cooke (D) vs Derrick Van Orden (R)
How this race will be graded
Every forecast on this page is sealed before the vote. Once the race is called, a right call earns 1 point, a Toss-up ½ and a wrong call 0, the same rule for both. Cook, Sabato, Silver and other raters get their own table on the scoreboard.
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