Senate · Minnesota · Before the vote
Minnesota Senate race: what the forecasters say
Peggy Flanagan (D) vs Michele Tafoya (R) · candidates as listed by DDHQ / The Hill
The seat is held by a Democrat. Inside Elections, FiftyPlusOne, DDHQ / The Hill and Race to the WH favor the Democrat. They lean the same way, but at least one rates the race close, so it is graded as a battleground. 1 rating change caught since Oct 21, the latest Oct 28, 2:06 PM ET.
Right now
Each forecaster’s current rating
The latest rating each outlet has published, as recorded and sealed Nov 1, 5:10 AM ET. Ratings are shown in each outlet’s own words.
| Forecaster | Rating | Side | As of | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Inside Elections | Lean Democrat | D Lean | Oct 1 | Their Senate forecast → |
| FiftyPlusOne | Likely D | D Likely | recorded Nov 1, 5:10 AM ET | Their Senate forecast → |
| DDHQ / The Hill | Likely D | D Likely | Oct 31 | Their Senate forecast → |
| Race to the WH | Safe D | D Safe | Oct 31 | Their Senate forecast → |
Rating history
Changes since Oct 21 (1)
A change of rating, of favorite, or of a model’s lean across 50%. Each change is sealed with the time we first saw it. Chances are rounded, so a rating can change while the number stays the same.
| When we saw it | Forecaster | From → to |
|---|---|---|
| Oct 28, 2:06 PM ET | Race to the WH | Likely D 89% → Solid/Safe D 96% (toward D) |
No change since Oct 21: Inside Elections, FiftyPlusOne and DDHQ / The Hill.
Inside Elections dates its last change here Oct 1, by its own change date: Likely Democrat → Lean Democrat. That is before our monitoring began on Oct 21, so it is not in the count above.
Same state
Other battlegrounds in Minnesota
- Minnesota 1 (House)
Jake Johnson (D) vs Brad Finstad (R)
How this race will be graded
Every forecast on this page is sealed before the vote. Once the race is called, a right call earns 1 point, a Toss-up ½ and a wrong call 0, the same rule for all four. Cook, Sabato, Silver and other raters get their own table on the scoreboard.
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