House · Pennsylvania · Before the vote

Pennsylvania 1st District (PA-1): what the forecasters say

Bob Harvie (D) vs Brian Fitzpatrick (R) · candidates as listed by DDHQ / The Hill

The seat is held by a Republican. FiftyPlusOne favors the Democrat; DDHQ / The Hill favors the Republican; Inside Elections and Race to the WH rate it a Toss-up. That is a head-on clash: the forecasters name opposite winners. 1 rating change caught since Oct 21, the latest Oct 29, 2:07 PM ET.

Result: after Nov 3. Once the race is called, the result appears on this page, and each forecaster’s final rating, sealed before the polls close, is graded under the published rules.

✓ Sealed Nov 1, 5:10 AM ET · Verify

Right now

Each forecaster’s current rating

The latest rating each outlet has published, as recorded and sealed Nov 1, 5:10 AM ET. Ratings are shown in each outlet’s own words.

Forecaster	Rating	Side	As of	Source
Inside Elections	Toss-up	Toss-up	Oct 29	Their House forecast →
FiftyPlusOne	Likely Dem	D Likely	recorded Nov 1, 5:10 AM ET	Their House forecast →
DDHQ / The Hill	Lean R	R Lean	Oct 14	Their House forecast →
Race to the WH	Tossup	Toss-up	Oct 31	Their House forecast →

Rating history

Changes since Oct 21 (1)

A change of rating, of favorite, or of a model’s lean across 50%. Each change is sealed with the time we first saw it. Chances are rounded, so a rating can change while the number stays the same.

When we saw it	Forecaster	From → to
Oct 29, 2:07 PM ET	Inside Elections	Lean R → Toss-up (toward D)

No change since Oct 21: FiftyPlusOne, DDHQ / The Hill and Race to the WH.

Inside Elections dates its last change here Oct 29, by its own change date: Lean Republican → Toss-up. That is the change in the table above: we first saw it Oct 29, 2:07 PM ET.

Same state

Other battlegrounds in Pennsylvania

Pennsylvania 7 (House)
Robert Brooks (D) vs Ryan Mackenzie (R)
Pennsylvania 8 (House)
Paige Cognetti (D) vs Robert Bresnahan (R)
Pennsylvania 10 (House)
Janelle Stelson (D) vs Scott Perry (R)

How this race will be graded

Every forecast on this page is sealed before the vote. Once the race is called, a right call earns 1 point, a Toss-up ½ and a wrong call 0, the same rule for all four. Cook, Sabato, Silver and other raters get their own table on the scoreboard.

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