House · Pennsylvania · Before the vote
Pennsylvania 8th District (PA-8): what the forecasters say
Paige Cognetti (D) vs Robert Bresnahan (R) · candidates as listed by DDHQ / The Hill
The seat is held by a Republican. Inside Elections, FiftyPlusOne and Race to the WH favor the Democrat; DDHQ / The Hill rates it a Toss-up. They split: at least one names a favorite while another calls it a Toss-up. 5 rating changes caught since Oct 21, the latest Oct 31, 4:12 PM ET.
Right now
Each forecaster’s current rating
The latest rating each outlet has published, as recorded and sealed Nov 1, 5:10 AM ET. Ratings are shown in each outlet’s own words.
| Forecaster | Rating | Side | As of | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Inside Elections | Tilt Democrat | D Tilt | Oct 15 | Their House forecast → |
| FiftyPlusOne | Lean Dem | D Lean | recorded Nov 1, 5:10 AM ET | Their House forecast → |
| DDHQ / The Hill | Toss Up | Toss-up | Oct 14 | Their House forecast → |
| Race to the WH | Tilt D | D Tilt | Oct 31 | Their House forecast → |
Rating history
Changes since Oct 21 (5)
A change of rating, of favorite, or of a model’s lean across 50%. Each change is sealed with the time we first saw it. Chances are rounded, so a rating can change while the number stays the same.
| When we saw it | Forecaster | From → to |
|---|---|---|
| Oct 31, 4:12 PM ET | FiftyPlusOne | Likely D 75.4% → Lean D 75.0% (toward R) |
| Oct 30, 12:11 PM ET | FiftyPlusOne | Lean D 74% → Likely D 76% (toward D) |
| Oct 28, 6:09 PM ET | FiftyPlusOne | Likely D 75% → Lean D 74% (toward R) |
| Oct 22, 4:09 PM ET | FiftyPlusOne | Lean D 75% → Likely D 76% (toward D) |
| Oct 22, 12:08 PM ET | FiftyPlusOne | Likely D 76% → Lean D 75% (toward R) |
No change since Oct 21: Inside Elections, DDHQ / The Hill and Race to the WH.
Inside Elections dates its last change here Oct 15, by its own change date: Toss-up → Tilt Democrat. That is before our monitoring began on Oct 21, so it is not in the count above.
Same state
Other battlegrounds in Pennsylvania
- Pennsylvania 1 (House)
Bob Harvie (D) vs Brian Fitzpatrick (R) - Pennsylvania 7 (House)
Robert Brooks (D) vs Ryan Mackenzie (R) - Pennsylvania 10 (House)
Janelle Stelson (D) vs Scott Perry (R)
How this race will be graded
Every forecast on this page is sealed before the vote. Once the race is called, a right call earns 1 point, a Toss-up ½ and a wrong call 0, the same rule for all four. Cook, Sabato, Silver and other raters get their own table on the scoreboard.
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