House · California · Before the vote
California 22nd District (CA-22): what the forecasters say
Randy Villegas (D) vs David Valadao (R) · candidates as listed by DDHQ / The Hill
The seat is held by a Republican. FiftyPlusOne, DDHQ / The Hill and Race to the WH favor the Democrat; Inside Elections rates it a Toss-up. They split: at least one names a favorite while another calls it a Toss-up. 1 rating change caught since Oct 21, the latest Oct 30, 2:07 PM ET.
Right now
Each forecaster’s current rating
The latest rating each outlet has published, as recorded and sealed Nov 1, 5:10 AM ET. Ratings are shown in each outlet’s own words.
| Forecaster | Rating | Side | As of | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Inside Elections | Toss-up | Toss-up | Oct 1 | Their House forecast → |
| FiftyPlusOne | Likely Dem | D Likely | recorded Nov 1, 5:10 AM ET | Their House forecast → |
| DDHQ / The Hill | Likely D | D Likely | Oct 14 | Their House forecast → |
| Race to the WH | Likely D | D Likely | Oct 31 | Their House forecast → |
Rating history
Changes since Oct 21 (1)
A change of rating, of favorite, or of a model’s lean across 50%. Each change is sealed with the time we first saw it. Chances are rounded, so a rating can change while the number stays the same.
| When we saw it | Forecaster | From → to |
|---|---|---|
| Oct 30, 2:07 PM ET | Race to the WH | Lean D 79% → Likely D 86% (toward D) |
No change since Oct 21: Inside Elections, FiftyPlusOne and DDHQ / The Hill.
Inside Elections dates its last change here Oct 1, by its own change date: Tilt Republican → Toss-up. That is before our monitoring began on Oct 21, so it is not in the count above.
Same state
Other battlegrounds in California
- California 13 (House)
Adam Gray (D) vs Kevin Lincoln (R) - California 48 (House)
Marni Wilpert (D) vs Jim Desmond (R)
How this race will be graded
Every forecast on this page is sealed before the vote. Once the race is called, a right call earns 1 point, a Toss-up ½ and a wrong call 0, the same rule for all four. Cook, Sabato, Silver and other raters get their own table on the scoreboard.
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