House · Iowa · Before the vote

Iowa 1st District (IA-1): what the forecasters say

Christina Bohannan (D) vs Mariannette Miller-Meeks (R) · candidates as listed by DDHQ / The Hill

The seat is held by a Republican. Inside Elections, FiftyPlusOne and DDHQ / The Hill favor the Democrat; Race to the WH rates it a Toss-up. They split: at least one names a favorite while another calls it a Toss-up. No rating change caught here since Oct 21.

Result: after Nov 3. Once the race is called, the result appears on this page, and each forecaster’s final rating, sealed before the polls close, is graded under the published rules.

✓ Sealed Nov 1, 5:10 AM ET · Verify

Right now

Each forecaster’s current rating

The latest rating each outlet has published, as recorded and sealed Nov 1, 5:10 AM ET. Ratings are shown in each outlet’s own words.

Forecaster	Rating	Side	As of	Source
Inside Elections	Tilt Democrat	D Tilt	Oct 1	Their House forecast →
FiftyPlusOne	Likely Dem	D Likely	recorded Nov 1, 5:10 AM ET	Their House forecast →
DDHQ / The Hill	Likely D	D Likely	Oct 14	Their House forecast →
Race to the WH	Tossup	Toss-up	Oct 31	Their House forecast →

Rating history

Changes since Oct 21 (0)

A change of rating, of favorite, or of a model’s lean across 50%. Each change is sealed with the time we first saw it. Chances are rounded, so a rating can change while the number stays the same.

Unchanged since Oct 21: Inside Elections, FiftyPlusOne, DDHQ / The Hill and Race to the WH.

Inside Elections dates its last change here Oct 1, by its own change date: Toss-up → Tilt Democrat. That is before our monitoring began on Oct 21, so it is not in the count above.

Same state

Other battlegrounds in Iowa

Iowa Senate
Josh Turek (D) vs Ashley Hinson (R)
Iowa governor
Rob Sand (D) vs Zach Lahn (R)
Iowa 2 (House)
Lindsay James (D) vs Joe Mitchell (R)
Iowa 3 (House)
Sarah Garriott (D) vs Zach Nunn (R)

How this race will be graded

Every forecast on this page is sealed before the vote. Once the race is called, a right call earns 1 point, a Toss-up ½ and a wrong call 0, the same rule for all four. Cook, Sabato, Silver and other raters get their own table on the scoreboard.

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