Senate · Maine · Before the vote

Maine Senate race: what the forecasters say

Troy Jackson (D) vs Susan Collins (R) · candidates as listed by DDHQ / The Hill

The seat is held by a Republican. FiftyPlusOne, DDHQ / The Hill and Race to the WH favor the Democrat; Inside Elections rates it a Toss-up. They split: at least one names a favorite while another calls it a Toss-up. 1 rating change caught since Oct 21, the latest Oct 31, 4:09 PM ET.

Result: after Nov 3. Once the race is called, the result appears on this page, and each forecaster’s final rating, sealed before the polls close, is graded under the published rules.

✓ Sealed Nov 1, 5:10 AM ET · Verify

Right now

Each forecaster’s current rating

The latest rating each outlet has published, as recorded and sealed Nov 1, 5:10 AM ET. Ratings are shown in each outlet’s own words.

Forecaster	Rating	Side	As of	Source
Inside Elections	Toss-up	Toss-up	Sep 17	Their Senate forecast →
FiftyPlusOne	Lean D	D Lean	recorded Nov 1, 5:10 AM ET	Their Senate forecast →
DDHQ / The Hill	Lean D	D Lean	Oct 31	Their Senate forecast →
Race to the WH	Tilt D	D Tilt	Oct 31	Their Senate forecast →

Rating history

Changes since Oct 21 (1)

A change of rating, of favorite, or of a model’s lean across 50%. Each change is sealed with the time we first saw it. Chances are rounded, so a rating can change while the number stays the same.

When we saw it	Forecaster	From → to
Oct 31, 4:09 PM ET	DDHQ / The Hill	Toss-up D 60% → Lean D 61% (toward D)

No change since Oct 21: Inside Elections, FiftyPlusOne and Race to the WH.

Inside Elections dates its last change here Sep 17, by its own change date: Tilt Republican → Toss-up. That is before our monitoring began on Oct 21, so it is not in the count above.

Same state

Other battlegrounds in Maine

Maine 2 (House)
Matthew Dunlap (D) vs Paul LePage (R)

How this race will be graded

Every forecast on this page is sealed before the vote. Once the race is called, a right call earns 1 point, a Toss-up ½ and a wrong call 0, the same rule for all four. Cook, Sabato, Silver and other raters get their own table on the scoreboard.

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