House · Maine · Before the vote

Maine 2nd District (ME-2): what the forecasters say

Matthew Dunlap (D) vs Paul LePage (R) · candidates as listed by DDHQ / The Hill

The seat is held by a Democrat. FiftyPlusOne favors the Democrat; Inside Elections, DDHQ / The Hill and Race to the WH favor the Republican. That is a head-on clash: the forecasters name opposite winners. 5 rating changes caught since Oct 21, the latest Oct 30, 12:09 AM ET.

Result: after Nov 3. Once the race is called, the result appears on this page, and each forecaster’s final rating, sealed before the polls close, is graded under the published rules.

✓ Sealed Nov 1, 5:10 AM ET · Verify

Right now

Each forecaster’s current rating

The latest rating each outlet has published, as recorded and sealed Nov 1, 5:10 AM ET. Ratings are shown in each outlet’s own words.

Forecaster	Rating	Side	As of	Source
Inside Elections	Lean Republican	R Lean	Oct 15	Their House forecast →
FiftyPlusOne	Lean Dem	D Lean	recorded Nov 1, 5:10 AM ET	Their House forecast →
DDHQ / The Hill	Lean R	R Lean	Oct 14	Their House forecast →
Race to the WH	Tilt R	R Tilt	Oct 31	Their House forecast →

Rating history

Changes since Oct 21 (5)

A change of rating, of favorite, or of a model’s lean across 50%. Each change is sealed with the time we first saw it. Chances are rounded, so a rating can change while the number stays the same.

When we saw it	Forecaster	From → to
Oct 30, 12:09 AM ET	Race to the WH	Toss-up R 65.0% → Tilt R 65.0%
Oct 29, 2:09 PM ET	Race to the WH	Tilt R 65.0% → Toss-up R 65.0%
Oct 29, 12:07 AM ET	Race to the WH	Toss-up R 65.0% → Tilt R 65.0%
Oct 26, 10:09 PM ET	Race to the WH	Tilt R 65% → Toss-up R 64% (toward D)
Oct 26, 12:08 AM ET	Race to the WH	Toss-up R 65.0% → Tilt R 65.0%

No change since Oct 21: Inside Elections, FiftyPlusOne and DDHQ / The Hill.

Inside Elections dates its last change here Oct 15, by its own change date: Likely Republican → Lean Republican. That is before our monitoring began on Oct 21, so it is not in the count above.

Same state

Other battlegrounds in Maine

Maine Senate
Troy Jackson (D) vs Susan Collins (R)

How this race will be graded

Every forecast on this page is sealed before the vote. Once the race is called, a right call earns 1 point, a Toss-up ½ and a wrong call 0, the same rule for all four. Cook, Sabato, Silver and other raters get their own table on the scoreboard.

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