Senate · Kansas · Before the vote

Kansas Senate race: what the forecasters say

Adam Hamilton (D) vs Roger Marshall (R) · candidates as listed by DDHQ / The Hill

The seat is held by a Republican. Inside Elections, FiftyPlusOne, DDHQ / The Hill and Race to the WH rate it a Toss-up. They lean the same way, but at least one rates the race close, so it is graded as a battleground. 5 rating changes caught since Oct 21, the latest Oct 30, 2:06 PM ET.

Result: after Nov 3. Once the race is called, the result appears on this page, and each forecaster’s final rating, sealed before the polls close, is graded under the published rules.

✓ Sealed Nov 1, 5:10 AM ET · Verify

Right now

Each forecaster’s current rating

The latest rating each outlet has published, as recorded and sealed Nov 1, 5:10 AM ET. Ratings are shown in each outlet’s own words.

Forecaster	Rating	Side	As of	Source
Inside Elections	Toss-up	Toss-up	Oct 29	Their Senate forecast →
FiftyPlusOne	Tossup	Toss-up	recorded Nov 1, 5:10 AM ET	Their Senate forecast →
DDHQ / The Hill	Toss Up	Toss-up	Oct 31	Their Senate forecast →
Race to the WH	Toss Up	Toss-up	Oct 31	Their Senate forecast →

Rating history

Changes since Oct 21 (5)

A change of rating, of favorite, or of a model’s lean across 50%. Each change is sealed with the time we first saw it. Chances are rounded, so a rating can change while the number stays the same.

When we saw it	Forecaster	From → to
Oct 30, 2:06 PM ET	Race to the WH	Toss-up R 54% → Toss-up D 52% (toward D)
Oct 29, 2:07 PM ET	Inside Elections	Tilt R → Toss-up (toward D)
Oct 29, 12:10 PM ET	FiftyPlusOne	Toss-up R 53% → Toss-up D 52% (toward D)
Oct 29, 12:07 PM ET	DDHQ / The Hill	Lean R 63% → Toss-up R 58% (toward D)
Oct 26, 12:12 PM ET	FiftyPlusOne	Toss-up D 50% → Toss-up R 51% (toward R)

Inside Elections dates its last change here Oct 29, by its own change date: Tilt Republican → Toss-up. That is the change in the table above: we first saw it Oct 29, 2:07 PM ET.

Same state

Other battlegrounds in Kansas

Kansas governor
Cindy Holscher (D) vs Ty Masterson (R)

How this race will be graded

Every forecast on this page is sealed before the vote. Once the race is called, a right call earns 1 point, a Toss-up ½ and a wrong call 0, the same rule for all four. Cook, Sabato, Silver and other raters get their own table on the scoreboard.

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