Governor · Nevada · Before the vote

Nevada governor race: what the forecasters say

Aaron Ford (D) vs Joseph Lombardo (R) · candidates as listed by Race to the WH

The seat is held by a Republican. Inside Elections and Race to the WH rate it a Toss-up. They lean the same way, but at least one rates the race close, so it is graded as a battleground. 1 rating change caught since Oct 21, the latest Oct 29, 2:08 PM ET.

Result: after Nov 3. Once the race is called, the result appears on this page, and each forecaster’s final rating, sealed before the polls close, is graded under the published rules.

✓ Sealed Nov 1, 5:10 AM ET · Verify

Right now

Each forecaster’s current rating

The latest rating each outlet has published, as recorded and sealed Nov 1, 5:10 AM ET. Ratings are shown in each outlet’s own words.

Forecaster	Rating	Side	As of	Source
Inside Elections	Toss-up	Toss-up	Oct 29	Their governor forecast →
FiftyPlusOne	does not forecast governor races
DDHQ / The Hill	does not forecast governor races
Race to the WH	Toss Up	Toss-up	Oct 31	Their governor forecast →

Rating history

Changes since Oct 21 (1)

A change of rating, of favorite, or of a model’s lean across 50%. Each change is sealed with the time we first saw it. Chances are rounded, so a rating can change while the number stays the same.

When we saw it	Forecaster	From → to
Oct 29, 2:08 PM ET	Inside Elections	Tilt R → Toss-up (toward D)

No change since Oct 21: Race to the WH.

Inside Elections dates its last change here Oct 29, by its own change date: Tilt Republican → Toss-up. That is the change in the table above: we first saw it Oct 29, 2:08 PM ET.

Same state

Other battlegrounds in Nevada

Nevada 1 (House)
Dina Titus (D) vs Carrie Buck (R)
Nevada 2 (House)
Teresa Benitez-Thompson (D) vs David Flippo (R)
Nevada 3 (House)
Susie Lee (D) vs Martin O'Donnell (R)

How this race will be graded

Every forecast on this page is sealed before the vote. Once the race is called, a right call earns 1 point, a Toss-up ½ and a wrong call 0, the same rule for both. Cook, Sabato, Silver and other raters get their own table on the scoreboard.

Full rules · Check the seal · All 98 battleground races

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