House · New Jersey · Before the vote
New Jersey 2nd District (NJ-2): what the forecasters say
Zack Mullock (D) vs Jeff Van Drew (R) · candidates as listed by DDHQ / The Hill
The seat is held by a Republican. Inside Elections, FiftyPlusOne, DDHQ / The Hill and Race to the WH favor the Republican. They lean the same way, but at least one rates the race close, so it is graded as a battleground. 3 rating changes caught since Oct 21, the latest Nov 3, 1:38 AM ET.
Right now
Each forecaster’s current rating
The latest rating each outlet has published, as recorded and sealed Nov 3, 3:10 AM ET. Ratings are shown in each outlet’s own words.
| Forecaster | Rating | Side | As of | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Inside Elections | Likely Republican | R Likely | Oct 29 | Their House forecast → |
| FiftyPlusOne | Likely Rep | R Likely | recorded Nov 3, 3:09 AM ET | Their House forecast → |
| DDHQ / The Hill | Lean R | R Lean | Nov 2 | Their House forecast → |
| Race to the WH | Likely R | R Likely | Nov 2 | Their House forecast → |
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Rating history
Changes since Oct 21 (3)
A change of rating, of favorite, or of a model’s lean across 50%. Each change is sealed with the time we first saw it. Chances are rounded, so a rating can change while the number stays the same.
| When we saw it | Forecaster | From → to |
|---|---|---|
| Nov 3, 1:38 AM ET | DDHQ / The Hill | Likely R 77% → Lean R 71% (toward D) |
| Nov 2, 1:09 PM ET | Race to the WH | Solid/Safe R 96% → Likely R 93% (toward D) |
| Oct 29, 2:07 PM ET | Inside Elections | Solid/Safe R → Likely R (toward D) |
No change since Oct 21: FiftyPlusOne.
Inside Elections dates its last change here Oct 29, by its own change date: Solid Republican → Likely Republican. That is the change in the table above: we first saw it Oct 29, 2:07 PM ET.
Same state
Other battlegrounds in New Jersey
- New Jersey 7 (House)
Rebecca Bennett (D) vs Thomas Kean (R)
How this race will be graded
Every forecast on this page is sealed before the vote. Once the race is called, a right call earns 1 point, a Toss-up ½ and a wrong call 0, the same rule for all four. Cook, Sabato, Silver and other raters get their own table on the scoreboard.