House · Florida · Before the vote
Florida 4th District (FL-4): what the forecasters say
LaShonda Holloway (D) vs Aaron Bean (R) · candidates as listed by DDHQ / The Hill
The seat is held by a Republican. Inside Elections, FiftyPlusOne, DDHQ / The Hill and Race to the WH favor the Republican. They lean the same way, but at least one rates the race close, so it is graded as a battleground. 1 rating change caught since Oct 21, the latest Nov 3, 1:38 AM ET.
Right now
Each forecaster’s current rating
The latest rating each outlet has published, as recorded and sealed Nov 3, 3:10 AM ET. Ratings are shown in each outlet’s own words.
| Forecaster | Rating | Side | As of | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Inside Elections | Solid Republican | R Safe | Dec 5, 2025 | Their House forecast → |
| FiftyPlusOne | Likely Rep | R Likely | recorded Nov 3, 3:09 AM ET | Their House forecast → |
| DDHQ / The Hill | Lean R | R Lean | Nov 2 | Their House forecast → |
| Race to the WH | Safe R | R Safe | Nov 2 | Their House forecast → |
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Rating history
Changes since Oct 21 (1)
A change of rating, of favorite, or of a model’s lean across 50%. Each change is sealed with the time we first saw it. Chances are rounded, so a rating can change while the number stays the same.
| When we saw it | Forecaster | From → to |
|---|---|---|
| Nov 3, 1:38 AM ET | DDHQ / The Hill | Likely R 76% → Lean R 73% (toward D) |
No change since Oct 21: Inside Elections, FiftyPlusOne and Race to the WH.
Inside Elections dates its rating here Dec 5, 2025, by its own date column: the rating has not changed since then. Our record shows no change since Oct 21.
Same state
Other battlegrounds in Florida
- Florida Senate
Angie Nixon (D) vs Ashley Moody (R) - Florida governor
David Jolly (D) vs Byron Donalds (R) - Florida 7 (House)
Bale Dalton (D) vs Ryan Elijah (R) - Florida 9 (House)
Darren Soto (D) vs Dan Green (R) - Florida 13 (House)
Leela Gray (D) vs Anna Paulina Luna (R) - Florida 14 (House)
Kathy Castor (D) vs Mike Beltran (R) - Florida 16 (House)
Kelly Kirschner (D) vs Sydney Gruters (R) - Florida 22 (House)
Pia Dandiya (D) vs Casey Askar (R) - Florida 25 (House)
Jared Moskowitz (D) vs Scott Singer (R) - Florida 27 (House)
Eliott Rodriguez (D) vs Maria Salazar (R)
How this race will be graded
Every forecast on this page is sealed before the vote. Once the race is called, a right call earns 1 point, a Toss-up ½ and a wrong call 0, the same rule for all four. Cook, Sabato, Silver and other raters get their own table on the scoreboard.