House · North Carolina · Before the vote
North Carolina 3rd District (NC-3): what the forecasters say
Raymond Smith (D) vs Gregory Murphy (R) · candidates as listed by DDHQ / The Hill
The seat is held by a Republican. Inside Elections, FiftyPlusOne, DDHQ / The Hill and Race to the WH favor the Republican. They lean the same way, but at least one rates the race close, so it is graded as a battleground. 6 rating changes caught since Oct 21, the latest Nov 3, 1:38 AM ET.
Right now
Each forecaster’s current rating
The latest rating each outlet has published, as recorded and sealed Nov 3, 3:10 AM ET. Ratings are shown in each outlet’s own words.
| Forecaster | Rating | Side | As of | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Inside Elections | Likely Republican | R Likely | Oct 29 | Their House forecast → |
| FiftyPlusOne | Likely Rep | R Likely | recorded Nov 3, 3:09 AM ET | Their House forecast → |
| DDHQ / The Hill | Lean R | R Lean | Nov 2 | Their House forecast → |
| Race to the WH | Safe R | R Safe | Nov 2 | Their House forecast → |
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Rating history
Changes since Oct 21 (6)
A change of rating, of favorite, or of a model’s lean across 50%. Each change is sealed with the time we first saw it. Chances are rounded, so a rating can change while the number stays the same.
| When we saw it | Forecaster | From → to |
|---|---|---|
| Nov 3, 1:38 AM ET | DDHQ / The Hill | Likely R 78% → Lean R 69% (toward D) |
| Nov 3, 12:40 AM ET | Race to the WH | Likely R 95.0% → Solid/Safe R 95.0% |
| Oct 29, 2:07 PM ET | Inside Elections | Solid/Safe R → Likely R (toward D) |
| Oct 26, 10:09 PM ET | Race to the WH | Solid/Safe R 96% → Likely R 94% (toward D) |
| Oct 21, 6:06 PM ET | FiftyPlusOne | Lean R 74.9% → Likely R 75.4% (toward R) |
| Oct 21, 4:07 PM ET | FiftyPlusOne | Likely R 75.2% → Lean R 74.9% (toward D) |
Inside Elections dates its last change here Oct 29, by its own change date: Solid Republican → Likely Republican. That is the change in the table above: we first saw it Oct 29, 2:07 PM ET.
Same state
Other battlegrounds in North Carolina
- North Carolina Senate
Roy Cooper (D) vs Michael Whatley (R) - North Carolina 1 (House)
Don Davis (D) vs Laurie Buckhout (R) - North Carolina 11 (House)
Jamie Ager (D) vs Jennifer Balkcom (R)
How this race will be graded
Every forecast on this page is sealed before the vote. Once the race is called, a right call earns 1 point, a Toss-up ½ and a wrong call 0, the same rule for all four. Cook, Sabato, Silver and other raters get their own table on the scoreboard.