Expert handicapping
Inside Elections
Ratings by Nathan L. Gonzales and the Inside Elections team: race-by-race reporting, no computer simulation.
92.9%Points share on 7 battlegrounds
6–0–1Right – wrong – no call
100.0%Hit rate when it made a call
64Forecast changes since Oct 21
92.9%60% line: points share (6–0–1 right – wrong – no pick)
1 of 1Flips it named that happened · 1 seats flipped among the races it rated
By rating
How its ratings held up
| Rating | Held |
|---|---|
| Solid / Safe | 22 of 22 |
| Likely | 2 of 2 |
| Lean | 2 of 2 |
| Tilt | 3 of 3 |
Bold calls
Sides only it named (5)
Battlegrounds where it named a side no other forecaster named.
| Race | Its forecast | Call | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Georgia governor | Tilt Democrat | D | Not yet called |
| Wisconsin governor | Tilt Democrat | D | Not yet called |
| Michigan 10 (House) | Tilt Republican | R | Not yet called |
| Ohio 7 (House) | Tilt Democrat | D | Not yet called |
| Texas 15 (House) | Tilt Democrat | D | Not yet called |
Late moves
Its changes since Oct 21 (64)
| When | Race | From → to | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 29, 2:07 PM ET | Georgia Senate | Lean D → Likely D | pending |
| Oct 29, 2:07 PM ET | Iowa Senate | Tilt R → Toss-up | pending |
| Oct 29, 2:07 PM ET | Kansas Senate | Tilt R → Toss-up | pending |
| Oct 29, 2:07 PM ET | Louisiana Senate | Solid/Safe R → Likely R | pending |
| Oct 29, 2:07 PM ET | Mississippi Senate | Solid/Safe R → Likely R | pending |
| Oct 29, 2:07 PM ET | Nebraska Senate | Lean R → Tilt R | pending |
| Oct 29, 2:07 PM ET | Ohio Senate | Toss-up → Tilt D | pending |
| Oct 29, 2:07 PM ET | South Carolina Senate | Lean R → Tilt R | pending |
| Oct 29, 2:07 PM ET | Texas Senate | Toss-up → Tilt D | pending |
| Oct 29, 2:07 PM ET | Alabama 2 (House) | Lean R → Tilt R | pending |
| Oct 29, 2:07 PM ET | Arizona 2 (House) | Likely R → Lean R | pending |
| Oct 29, 2:07 PM ET | Arizona 6 (House) | Toss-up → Tilt D | pending |
| Oct 29, 2:07 PM ET | California 6 (House) | Lean D → Likely D | pending |
| Oct 29, 2:07 PM ET | California 45 (House) | Likely D → Solid/Safe D | pending |
| Oct 29, 2:07 PM ET | Colorado 4 (House) | Solid/Safe R → Likely R | pending |
| Oct 29, 2:07 PM ET | Colorado 5 (House) | Tilt R → Toss-up | pending |
| Oct 29, 2:07 PM ET | Colorado 8 (House) | Toss-up → Tilt D | pending |
| Oct 29, 2:07 PM ET | Florida 14 (House) | Toss-up → Tilt D | helped |
| Oct 29, 2:07 PM ET | Florida 22 (House) | Tilt R → Toss-up | helped |
| Oct 29, 2:07 PM ET | Florida 25 (House) | Toss-up → Tilt D | helped |
| Oct 29, 2:07 PM ET | Kansas 2 (House) | Solid/Safe R → Likely R | pending |
| Oct 29, 2:07 PM ET | Kentucky 6 (House) | Tilt R → Toss-up | pending |
| Oct 29, 2:07 PM ET | Michigan 4 (House) | Tilt R → Toss-up | pending |
| Oct 29, 2:07 PM ET | Minnesota 1 (House) | Likely R → Lean R | pending |
| Oct 29, 2:07 PM ET | Montana 1 (House) | Tilt R → Toss-up | pending |
| Oct 29, 2:07 PM ET | North Carolina 1 (House) | Toss-up → Tilt D | pending |
| Oct 29, 2:07 PM ET | North Carolina 3 (House) | Solid/Safe R → Likely R | pending |
| Oct 29, 2:07 PM ET | North Carolina 9 (House) | Solid/Safe R → Likely R | pending |
| Oct 29, 2:07 PM ET | North Carolina 11 (House) | Toss-up → Tilt D | helped |
| Oct 29, 2:07 PM ET | North Carolina 13 (House) | Solid/Safe R → Likely R | pending |
| Oct 29, 2:07 PM ET | New Hampshire 2 (House) | Likely D → Solid/Safe D | pending |
| Oct 29, 2:07 PM ET | New Jersey 2 (House) | Solid/Safe R → Likely R | pending |
| Oct 29, 2:07 PM ET | Nevada 2 (House) | Lean R → Tilt R | pending |
| Oct 29, 2:07 PM ET | Ohio 1 (House) | Tilt D → Lean D | pending |
| Oct 29, 2:07 PM ET | Ohio 7 (House) | Toss-up → Tilt D | pending |
| Oct 29, 2:07 PM ET | Ohio 9 (House) | Toss-up → Tilt D | pending |
| Oct 29, 2:07 PM ET | Ohio 10 (House) | Solid/Safe R → Lean R | pending |
| Oct 29, 2:07 PM ET | Ohio 15 (House) | Likely R → Lean R | pending |
| Oct 29, 2:07 PM ET | Oklahoma 5 (House) | Solid/Safe R → Likely R | pending |
| Oct 29, 2:07 PM ET | Pennsylvania 1 (House) | Lean R → Toss-up | pending |
| Oct 29, 2:07 PM ET | Pennsylvania 10 (House) | Toss-up → Tilt D | pending |
| Oct 29, 2:07 PM ET | Tennessee 9 (House) | Solid/Safe R → Likely R | pending |
| Oct 29, 2:07 PM ET | Texas 9 (House) | Likely R → Lean R | pending |
| Oct 29, 2:07 PM ET | Texas 15 (House) | Toss-up → Tilt D | pending |
| Oct 29, 2:07 PM ET | Texas 28 (House) | Tilt D → Lean D | pending |
| Oct 29, 2:07 PM ET | Texas 35 (House) | Lean R → Toss-up | pending |
| Oct 29, 2:07 PM ET | Virginia 1 (House) | Lean R → Tilt R | pending |
| Oct 29, 2:07 PM ET | Virginia 2 (House) | Toss-up → Tilt D | pending |
| Oct 29, 2:07 PM ET | Virginia 5 (House) | Likely R → Lean R | pending |
| Oct 29, 2:07 PM ET | Virginia 7 (House) | Likely D → Solid/Safe D | helped |
| Oct 29, 2:07 PM ET | Washington 5 (House) | Solid/Safe R → Likely R | pending |
| Oct 29, 2:07 PM ET | Wisconsin 1 (House) | Likely R → Lean R | pending |
| Oct 29, 2:07 PM ET | Wisconsin 3 (House) | Toss-up → Tilt D | pending |
| Oct 29, 2:08 PM ET | Alaska governor | Toss-up → Tilt D | pending |
| Oct 29, 2:08 PM ET | Georgia governor | Toss-up → Tilt D | pending |
| Oct 29, 2:08 PM ET | Iowa governor | Tilt D → Lean D | pending |
| Oct 29, 2:08 PM ET | Michigan governor | Tilt D → Lean D | pending |
| Oct 29, 2:08 PM ET | Nevada governor | Tilt R → Toss-up | pending |
| Oct 29, 2:08 PM ET | Ohio governor | Toss-up → Tilt D | pending |
| Oct 29, 2:08 PM ET | Oregon governor | Lean D → Tilt D | pending |
| Oct 29, 2:08 PM ET | Tennessee governor | Solid/Safe R → Likely R | pending |
| Oct 29, 2:08 PM ET | Texas governor | Lean R → Tilt R | pending |
| Oct 29, 2:08 PM ET | Wisconsin governor | Toss-up → Tilt D | pending |
| Oct 29, 4:07 PM ET | South Carolina 1 (House) | Lean R → Tilt R | pending |
Every battleground
All 100 it rated
| Race | Forecast | Call | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Alaska governor | Tilt Democrat | D | Not yet called |
| Arizona governor | Tilt Democrat | D | Not yet called |
| Florida governor | Lean Republican | R ✓ | R Republican hold · called Nov 3, 8:33 PM ET |
| Georgia governor | Tilt Democrat | D | Not yet called |
| Iowa governor | Lean Democrat | D | Not yet called |
| Kansas governor | Tilt Republican | R | Not yet called |
| Michigan governor | Lean Democrat | D | Not yet called |
| Nebraska governor | Likely Republican | R | Not yet called |
| Nevada governor | Toss-up | Toss-up | Not yet called |
| Ohio governor | Tilt Democrat | D | Not yet called |
| Oregon governor | Tilt Democrat | D | Not yet called |
| Texas governor | Tilt Republican | R | Not yet called |
| Vermont governor | Likely Republican | R | Not yet called |
| Wisconsin governor | Tilt Democrat | D | Not yet called |
| Alaska at-large (House) | Likely Republican | R | Not yet called |
| Alabama 2 (House) | Tilt Republican | R | Not yet called |
| Arizona 1 (House) | Tilt Democrat | D | Not yet called |
| Arizona 2 (House) | Lean Republican | R | Not yet called |
| Arizona 6 (House) | Tilt Democrat | D | Not yet called |
| California 13 (House) | Tilt Democrat | D | Not yet called |
| California 22 (House) | Toss-up | Toss-up | Not yet called |
| California 48 (House) | Tilt Democrat | D | Not yet called |
| Colorado 3 (House) | Likely Republican | R | Not yet called |
| Colorado 4 (House) | Likely Republican | R | Not yet called |
| Colorado 5 (House) | Toss-up | Toss-up | Not yet called |
| Colorado 8 (House) | Tilt Democrat | D | Not yet called |
| Florida 4 (House) | Solid Republican | R | Not yet called |
| Florida 7 (House) | Likely Republican | R | Not yet called |
| Florida 9 (House) | Likely Republican | R | Not yet called |
| Florida 13 (House) | Lean Republican | R | Not yet called |
| Florida 14 (House) | Tilt Democrat | D ✓ | D Democrat hold · called Nov 3, 7:52 PM ET |
| Florida 16 (House) | Likely Republican | R | Not yet called |
| Florida 22 (House) | Toss-up | Toss-up · ½ | D Democrat hold · called Nov 3, 8:12 PM ET |
| Florida 25 (House) | Tilt Democrat | D ✓ | D Democrat hold · called Nov 3, 8:04 PM ET |
| Florida 27 (House) | Lean Republican | R | Not yet called |
| Iowa 1 (House) | Tilt Democrat | D | Not yet called |
| Iowa 2 (House) | Toss-up | Toss-up | Not yet called |
| Iowa 3 (House) | Tilt Democrat | D | Not yet called |
| Kentucky 6 (House) | Toss-up | Toss-up | Not yet called |
| Maine 2 (House) | Lean Republican | R | Not yet called |
| Michigan 4 (House) | Toss-up | Toss-up | Not yet called |
| Michigan 7 (House) | Toss-up | Toss-up | Not yet called |
| Michigan 10 (House) | Tilt Republican | R | Not yet called |
| Minnesota 1 (House) | Lean Republican | R | Not yet called |
| Missouri 2 (House) | Solid Republican | R | Not yet called |
| Montana 1 (House) | Toss-up | Toss-up | Not yet called |
| North Carolina 1 (House) | Tilt Democrat | D | Not yet called |
| North Carolina 3 (House) | Likely Republican | R | Not yet called |
| North Carolina 11 (House) | Tilt Democrat | D ✓ | D Democrat flip · called Nov 3, 8:34 PM ET |
| Nebraska 2 (House) | Lean Democrat | D | Not yet called |
| New Hampshire 1 (House) | Lean Democrat | D ✓ | D Democrat hold · called Nov 3, 8:04 PM ET |
| New Jersey 2 (House) | Likely Republican | R | Not yet called |
| New Jersey 7 (House) | Tilt Democrat | D | Not yet called |
| New Mexico 2 (House) | Tilt Democrat | D | Not yet called |
| Nevada 1 (House) | Lean Democrat | D | Not yet called |
| Nevada 2 (House) | Tilt Republican | R | Not yet called |
| Nevada 3 (House) | Lean Democrat | D | Not yet called |
| New York 1 (House) | Solid Republican | R | Not yet called |
| New York 3 (House) | Lean Democrat | D | Not yet called |
| New York 4 (House) | Tilt Democrat | D | Not yet called |
| New York 17 (House) | Toss-up | Toss-up | Not yet called |
| New York 21 (House) | Lean Republican | R | Not yet called |
| Ohio 1 (House) | Lean Democrat | D | Not yet called |
| Ohio 7 (House) | Tilt Democrat | D | Not yet called |
| Ohio 9 (House) | Tilt Democrat | D | Not yet called |
| Ohio 10 (House) | Lean Republican | R | Not yet called |
| Ohio 15 (House) | Lean Republican | R | Not yet called |
| Pennsylvania 1 (House) | Toss-up | Toss-up | Not yet called |
| Pennsylvania 7 (House) | Tilt Democrat | D | Not yet called |
| Pennsylvania 8 (House) | Tilt Democrat | D | Not yet called |
| Pennsylvania 10 (House) | Tilt Democrat | D | Not yet called |
| South Carolina 1 (House) | Tilt Republican | R | Not yet called |
| Tennessee 5 (House) | Solid Republican | R | Not yet called |
| Tennessee 9 (House) | Likely Republican | R | Not yet called |
| Texas 9 (House) | Lean Republican | R | Not yet called |
| Texas 15 (House) | Tilt Democrat | D | Not yet called |
| Texas 23 (House) | Likely Republican | R | Not yet called |
| Texas 28 (House) | Lean Democrat | D | Not yet called |
| Texas 34 (House) | Toss-up | Toss-up | Not yet called |
| Texas 35 (House) | Toss-up | Toss-up | Not yet called |
| Virginia 1 (House) | Tilt Republican | R | Not yet called |
| Virginia 2 (House) | Tilt Democrat | D | Not yet called |
| Virginia 5 (House) | Lean Republican | R | Not yet called |
| Washington 3 (House) | Toss-up | Toss-up | Not yet called |
| Wisconsin 1 (House) | Lean Republican | R | Not yet called |
| Wisconsin 3 (House) | Tilt Democrat | D | Not yet called |
| Alaska Senate | Toss-up | Toss-up | Not yet called |
| Florida Senate | Likely Republican | R ✓ | R Republican hold · called Nov 3, 8:03 PM ET |
| Iowa Senate | Toss-up | Toss-up | Not yet called |
| Kansas Senate | Toss-up | Toss-up | Not yet called |
| Maine Senate | Toss-up | Toss-up | Not yet called |
| Michigan Senate | Tilt Democrat | D | Not yet called |
| Minnesota Senate | Lean Democrat | D | Not yet called |
| Montana Senate | Solid Republican | R | Not yet called |
| North Carolina Senate | Lean Democrat | D | Not yet called |
| Nebraska Senate | Tilt Republican | R | Not yet called |
| New Hampshire Senate | Tilt Democrat | D | Not yet called |
| Ohio Senate | Tilt Democrat | D | Not yet called |
| South Carolina Senate | Tilt Republican | R | Not yet called |
| Texas Senate | Tilt Democrat | D | Not yet called |
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