Model with a market input
DDHQ / The Hill
Decision Desk HQ’s model, led by Scott Tranter: fundamentals and polls, with prediction-market prices as one input.
83.3%Points share on 6 battlegrounds
4–0–2Right – wrong – no call
100.0%Hit rate when it made a call
5–1–0Forced call: right – wrong – tie
83.3%60% line: points share (4–0–2 right – wrong – no pick)
0.110Probability accuracy on battlegrounds (lower is better)
0.023Probability accuracy, all its called races
0.046Three-way accuracy, D / R / I (0 is perfect, 2 the worst)
0 of 0Flips it named that happened · 1 seats flipped among the races it rated
+1.3Seats against expectations: kept by the seat-holding party beyond (+) or short of (−) its stated chances
Probability skill on battlegrounds: +56% against saying 50–50 everywhere.
By rating
How its ratings held up
| Rating | Held |
|---|---|
| Solid / Safe | 22 of 22 |
| Likely | 3 of 3 |
| Lean | 2 of 2 |
Bold calls
Sides only it named (1)
Battlegrounds where it named a side no other forecaster named.
| Race | Its forecast | Call | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Colorado 5 (House) | Likely R · R 75% | R | Not yet called |
Late moves
Its changes since Oct 21 (66)
| When | Race | From → to | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 26, 12:09 PM ET | Nebraska Senate | Likely R 76% → Lean R 73% | pending |
| Oct 29, 12:07 PM ET | Alaska Senate | Lean D 61% → Toss-up D 60% | pending |
| Oct 29, 12:07 PM ET | Kansas Senate | Lean R 63% → Toss-up R 58% | pending |
| Oct 31, 4:09 PM ET | Kentucky Senate | Solid/Safe R 95% → Likely R 94% | pending |
| Oct 31, 4:09 PM ET | Maine Senate | Toss-up D 60% → Lean D 61% | pending |
| Oct 31, 4:09 PM ET | Nebraska Senate | Lean R 72% → Likely R 76% | pending |
| Nov 1, 3:08 PM ET | Kentucky Senate | Likely R 94% → Solid/Safe R 95% | pending |
| Nov 1, 3:08 PM ET | Nebraska Senate | Likely R 76% → Lean R 74% | pending |
| Nov 1, 11:38 PM ET | Alaska Senate | Toss-up D 60% → Lean D 61% | pending |
| Nov 1, 11:38 PM ET | Kansas Senate | Toss-up R 54% → Toss-up 50% | pending |
| Nov 1, 11:38 PM ET | Kentucky Senate | Solid/Safe R 95% → Likely R 94% | pending |
| Nov 1, 11:38 PM ET | Michigan Senate | Lean D 73% → Likely D 76% | pending |
| Nov 1, 11:38 PM ET | Texas Senate | Toss-up D 59% → Lean D 61% | pending |
| Nov 2, 10:37 AM ET | Kansas Senate | Toss-up 50% → Toss-up D 51% | pending |
| Nov 3, 1:38 AM ET | Alaska at-large (House) | Likely R 80% → Lean R 73% | pending |
| Nov 3, 1:38 AM ET | Alabama 2 (House) | Likely R 76% → Lean R 69% | pending |
| Nov 3, 1:38 AM ET | Arizona 1 (House) | Lean D 71% → Likely D 76% | pending |
| Nov 3, 1:38 AM ET | Arizona 2 (House) | Likely R 79% → Lean R 72% | pending |
| Nov 3, 1:38 AM ET | Colorado 3 (House) | Lean R 66% → Toss-up R 57% | pending |
| Nov 3, 1:38 AM ET | Florida 4 (House) | Likely R 76% → Lean R 73% | pending |
| Nov 3, 1:38 AM ET | Florida 9 (House) | Lean R 63% → Toss-up R 59% | pending |
| Nov 3, 1:38 AM ET | Florida 13 (House) | Likely R 76% → Lean R 70% | pending |
| Nov 3, 1:38 AM ET | Florida 16 (House) | Likely R 78% → Lean R 73% | pending |
| Nov 3, 1:38 AM ET | Florida 17 (House) | Solid/Safe R 95% → Likely R 94% | pending |
| Nov 3, 1:38 AM ET | Florida 27 (House) | Likely R 76% → Lean R 71% | pending |
| Nov 3, 1:38 AM ET | Iowa 2 (House) | Toss-up R 58% → Toss-up D 52% | pending |
| Nov 3, 1:38 AM ET | Illinois 17 (House) | Likely D 94% → Solid/Safe D 97% | pending |
| Nov 3, 1:38 AM ET | Kansas 3 (House) | Likely D 93% → Solid/Safe D 95% | pending |
| Nov 3, 1:38 AM ET | Kentucky 6 (House) | Lean R 73% → Toss-up R 60% | pending |
| Nov 3, 1:38 AM ET | Maryland 1 (House) | Solid/Safe R 96% → Likely R 94% | pending |
| Nov 3, 1:38 AM ET | Maine 2 (House) | Lean R 61% → Toss-up R 55% | pending |
| Nov 3, 1:38 AM ET | Michigan 4 (House) | Lean R 66% → Toss-up R 59% | pending |
| Nov 3, 1:38 AM ET | Michigan 7 (House) | Lean D 74% → Likely D 80% | pending |
| Nov 3, 1:38 AM ET | Michigan 10 (House) | Toss-up D 60% → Lean D 66% | pending |
| Nov 3, 1:38 AM ET | Missouri 2 (House) | Likely R 77% → Lean R 65% | pending |
| Nov 3, 1:38 AM ET | Montana 1 (House) | Lean R 71% → Toss-up R 53% | pending |
| Nov 3, 1:38 AM ET | North Carolina 1 (House) | Toss-up D 57% → Lean D 65% | pending |
| Nov 3, 1:38 AM ET | North Carolina 3 (House) | Likely R 78% → Lean R 69% | pending |
| Nov 3, 1:38 AM ET | North Carolina 11 (House) | Toss-up R 51% → Toss-up D 59% | helped |
| Nov 3, 1:38 AM ET | Nebraska 2 (House) | Likely D 92% → Solid/Safe D 95% | pending |
| Nov 3, 1:38 AM ET | New Jersey 2 (House) | Likely R 77% → Lean R 71% | pending |
| Nov 3, 1:38 AM ET | Nevada 2 (House) | Likely R 76% → Lean R 72% | pending |
| Nov 3, 1:38 AM ET | New York 17 (House) | Toss-up D 58% → Lean D 61% | pending |
| Nov 3, 1:38 AM ET | New York 23 (House) | Solid/Safe R 95% → Likely R 94% | pending |
| Nov 3, 1:38 AM ET | Ohio 7 (House) | Toss-up R 53% → Toss-up D 54% | pending |
| Nov 3, 1:38 AM ET | Ohio 9 (House) | Lean D 68% → Likely D 75% | pending |
| Nov 3, 1:38 AM ET | Oklahoma 1 (House) | Solid/Safe R 95% → Likely R 93% | pending |
| Nov 3, 1:38 AM ET | Pennsylvania 1 (House) | Lean R 63% → Toss-up R 55% | pending |
| Nov 3, 1:38 AM ET | Pennsylvania 7 (House) | Lean D 74% → Likely D 76% | pending |
| Nov 3, 1:38 AM ET | Pennsylvania 8 (House) | Toss-up D 53% → Lean D 66% | pending |
| Nov 3, 1:38 AM ET | Pennsylvania 16 (House) | Solid/Safe R 96% → Likely R 94% | pending |
| Nov 3, 1:38 AM ET | South Carolina 5 (House) | Solid/Safe R 96% → Likely R 94% | pending |
| Nov 3, 1:38 AM ET | Tennessee 7 (House) | Solid/Safe R 97% → Likely R 94% | pending |
| Nov 3, 1:38 AM ET | Texas 2 (House) | Solid/Safe R 95% → Likely R 94% | pending |
| Nov 3, 1:38 AM ET | Texas 17 (House) | Solid/Safe R 95% → Likely R 94% | pending |
| Nov 3, 1:38 AM ET | Texas 21 (House) | Solid/Safe R 95% → Likely R 94% | pending |
| Nov 3, 1:38 AM ET | Texas 22 (House) | Solid/Safe R 96% → Likely R 94% | pending |
| Nov 3, 1:38 AM ET | Texas 23 (House) | Likely R 77% → Lean R 70% | pending |
| Nov 3, 1:38 AM ET | Texas 31 (House) | Solid/Safe R 95% → Likely R 93% | pending |
| Nov 3, 1:38 AM ET | Texas 34 (House) | Lean D 71% → Likely D 78% | pending |
| Nov 3, 1:38 AM ET | Texas 35 (House) | Toss-up R 59% → Toss-up D 51% | pending |
| Nov 3, 1:38 AM ET | Virginia 5 (House) | Likely R 75% → Lean R 70% | pending |
| Nov 3, 1:38 AM ET | Wisconsin 7 (House) | Solid/Safe R 96% → Likely R 94% | pending |
| Nov 3, 12:36 PM ET | Alaska Senate | Lean D 61% → Toss-up D 60% | pending |
| Nov 3, 12:36 PM ET | South Carolina Senate | Lean R 61% → Toss-up R 60% | pending |
| Nov 3, 12:36 PM ET | Texas Senate | Lean D 62% → Toss-up D 60% | pending |
Every battleground
All 86 it rated
| Race | Forecast | Call | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Alaska at-large (House) | Lean R · R 73% | R | Not yet called |
| Alabama 2 (House) | Lean R · R 69% | R | Not yet called |
| Arizona 1 (House) | Likely D · D 76% | D | Not yet called |
| Arizona 2 (House) | Lean R · R 72% | R | Not yet called |
| Arizona 6 (House) | Likely D · D 84% | D | Not yet called |
| California 13 (House) | Likely D · D 87% | D | Not yet called |
| California 22 (House) | Likely D · D 84% | D | Not yet called |
| California 48 (House) | Likely D · D 92% | D | Not yet called |
| Colorado 3 (House) | Toss Up · R 57% | Toss-up | Not yet called |
| Colorado 4 (House) | Likely R · R 81% | R | Not yet called |
| Colorado 5 (House) | Likely R · R 75% | R | Not yet called |
| Colorado 8 (House) | Likely D · D 83% | D | Not yet called |
| Florida 4 (House) | Lean R · R 73% | R | Not yet called |
| Florida 7 (House) | Lean R · R 69% | R | Not yet called |
| Florida 9 (House) | Toss Up · R 59% | Toss-up | Not yet called |
| Florida 13 (House) | Lean R · R 70% | R | Not yet called |
| Florida 14 (House) | Lean D · D 73% | D ✓ | D Democrat hold · called Nov 3, 7:52 PM ET |
| Florida 16 (House) | Lean R · R 73% | R | Not yet called |
| Florida 22 (House) | Toss Up · R 51% | Toss-up · ½ | D Democrat hold · called Nov 3, 8:12 PM ET |
| Florida 25 (House) | Lean D · D 70% | D ✓ | D Democrat hold · called Nov 3, 8:04 PM ET |
| Florida 27 (House) | Lean R · R 71% | R | Not yet called |
| Iowa 1 (House) | Likely D · D 85% | D | Not yet called |
| Iowa 2 (House) | Toss Up · D 52% | Toss-up | Not yet called |
| Iowa 3 (House) | Lean D · D 73% | D | Not yet called |
| Kentucky 6 (House) | Toss Up · R 60% | Toss-up | Not yet called |
| Maine 2 (House) | Toss Up · R 55% | Toss-up | Not yet called |
| Michigan 4 (House) | Toss Up · R 59% | Toss-up | Not yet called |
| Michigan 7 (House) | Likely D · D 80% | D | Not yet called |
| Michigan 10 (House) | Lean D · D 66% | D | Not yet called |
| Minnesota 1 (House) | Lean R · R 66% | R | Not yet called |
| Missouri 2 (House) | Lean R · R 65% | R | Not yet called |
| Montana 1 (House) | Toss Up · R 53% | Toss-up | Not yet called |
| North Carolina 1 (House) | Lean D · D 65% | D | Not yet called |
| North Carolina 3 (House) | Lean R · R 69% | R | Not yet called |
| North Carolina 11 (House) | Toss Up · D 59% | Toss-up · ½ | D Democrat flip · called Nov 3, 8:34 PM ET |
| Nebraska 2 (House) | Safe D · D 95% | D | Not yet called |
| New Hampshire 1 (House) | Likely D · D 89% | D ✓ | D Democrat hold · called Nov 3, 8:04 PM ET |
| New Jersey 2 (House) | Lean R · R 71% | R | Not yet called |
| New Jersey 7 (House) | Likely D · D 85% | D | Not yet called |
| New Mexico 2 (House) | Likely D · D 84% | D | Not yet called |
| Nevada 1 (House) | Likely D · D 92% | D | Not yet called |
| Nevada 2 (House) | Lean R · R 72% | R | Not yet called |
| Nevada 3 (House) | Likely D · D 86% | D | Not yet called |
| New York 1 (House) | Lean R · R 62% | R | Not yet called |
| New York 3 (House) | Likely D · D 93% | D | Not yet called |
| New York 4 (House) | Likely D · D 89% | D | Not yet called |
| New York 17 (House) | Lean D · D 61% | D | Not yet called |
| New York 21 (House) | Likely R · R 81% | R | Not yet called |
| Ohio 1 (House) | Likely D · D 83% | D | Not yet called |
| Ohio 7 (House) | Toss Up · D 54% | Toss-up | Not yet called |
| Ohio 9 (House) | Likely D · D 75% | D | Not yet called |
| Ohio 10 (House) | Likely R · R 87% | R | Not yet called |
| Ohio 15 (House) | Likely R · R 79% | R | Not yet called |
| Pennsylvania 1 (House) | Toss Up · R 55% | Toss-up | Not yet called |
| Pennsylvania 7 (House) | Likely D · D 76% | D | Not yet called |
| Pennsylvania 8 (House) | Lean D · D 66% | D | Not yet called |
| Pennsylvania 10 (House) | Lean D · D 71% | D | Not yet called |
| South Carolina 1 (House) | Lean R · R 64% | R | Not yet called |
| Tennessee 5 (House) | Safe R · R 96% | R | Not yet called |
| Tennessee 9 (House) | Likely R · R 90% | R | Not yet called |
| Texas 9 (House) | Likely R · R 86% | R | Not yet called |
| Texas 15 (House) | Toss Up · R 51% | Toss-up | Not yet called |
| Texas 23 (House) | Lean R · R 70% | R | Not yet called |
| Texas 28 (House) | Likely D · D 93% | D | Not yet called |
| Texas 34 (House) | Likely D · D 78% | D | Not yet called |
| Texas 35 (House) | Toss Up · D 51% | Toss-up | Not yet called |
| Virginia 1 (House) | Lean R · R 64% | R | Not yet called |
| Virginia 2 (House) | Likely D · D 85% | D | Not yet called |
| Virginia 5 (House) | Lean R · R 70% | R | Not yet called |
| Washington 3 (House) | Likely D · D 91% | D | Not yet called |
| Wisconsin 1 (House) | Lean R · R 62% | R | Not yet called |
| Wisconsin 3 (House) | Likely D · D 80% | D | Not yet called |
| Alaska Senate | Toss Up · D 60% | Toss-up | Not yet called |
| Florida Senate | Likely R · R 76% | R ✓ | R Republican hold · called Nov 3, 8:03 PM ET |
| Iowa Senate | Toss Up · R 52% | Toss-up | Not yet called |
| Kansas Senate | Toss Up · D 51% | Toss-up | Not yet called |
| Maine Senate | Lean D · D 64% | D | Not yet called |
| Michigan Senate | Likely D · D 75% | D | Not yet called |
| Minnesota Senate | Likely D · D 84% | D | Not yet called |
| Montana Senate | Likely R · R 77% | R | Not yet called |
| North Carolina Senate | Likely D · D 87% | D | Not yet called |
| Nebraska Senate | Lean R · R 74% | R | Not yet called |
| New Hampshire Senate | Likely D · D 87% | D | Not yet called |
| Ohio Senate | Toss Up · D 54% | Toss-up | Not yet called |
| South Carolina Senate | Toss Up · R 60% | Toss-up | Not yet called |
| Texas Senate | Toss Up · D 60% | Toss-up | Not yet called |
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