Polling model
FiftyPlusOne
Built by G. Elliott Morris’s team: polls, fundamentals and expert ratings blended into win chances.
91.7%Points share on 6 battlegrounds
5–0–1Right – wrong – no call
100.0%Hit rate when it made a call
6–0–0Forced call: right – wrong – tie
91.7%60% line: points share (5–0–1 right – wrong – no pick)
0.093Probability accuracy on battlegrounds (lower is better)
0.019Probability accuracy, all its called races
0.038Three-way accuracy, D / R / I (0 is perfect, 2 the worst)
1 of 1Flips it named that happened · 1 seats flipped among the races it rated
+0.9Seats against expectations: kept by the seat-holding party beyond (+) or short of (−) its stated chances
Probability skill on battlegrounds: +63% against saying 50–50 everywhere.
By rating
How its ratings held up
| Rating | Held |
|---|---|
| Solid / Safe | 24 of 24 |
| Likely | 1 of 1 |
| Lean | 3 of 3 |
Bold calls
Sides only it named (8)
Battlegrounds where it named a side no other forecaster named.
| Race | Its forecast | Call | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Kentucky 6 (House) | Lean Rep · R 66% | R | Not yet called |
| Michigan 4 (House) | Lean Dem · D 63% | D | Not yet called |
| Pennsylvania 1 (House) | Likely Dem · D 84% | D | Not yet called |
| Texas 15 (House) | Lean Rep · R 71% | R | Not yet called |
| Virginia 1 (House) | Lean Dem · D 72% | D | Not yet called |
| Wisconsin 1 (House) | Lean Dem · D 67% | D | Not yet called |
| Alaska Senate | Lean D · D 68% | D | Not yet called |
| Kansas Senate | Lean D · D 65% | D | Not yet called |
Late moves
Its changes since Oct 21 (110)
| When | Race | From → to | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 21, 4:07 PM ET | North Carolina 3 (House) | Likely R 75.2% → Lean R 74.9% | pending |
| Oct 21, 6:06 PM ET | Florida 25 (House) | Likely D 87% → Lean D 69% | hurt |
| Oct 21, 6:06 PM ET | Kentucky 6 (House) | Toss-up R 59% → Lean R 60% | pending |
| Oct 21, 6:06 PM ET | North Carolina 3 (House) | Lean R 74.9% → Likely R 75.4% | pending |
| Oct 21, 6:06 PM ET | North Carolina 11 (House) | Lean D 61% → Toss-up D 60% | hurt |
| Oct 21, 10:08 PM ET | Kentucky 6 (House) | Lean R 60.1% → Toss-up R 59.7% | pending |
| Oct 21, 10:08 PM ET | North Carolina 11 (House) | Toss-up D 59.7% → Lean D 60.1% | helped |
| Oct 22, 12:08 PM ET | Alabama 2 (House) | Toss-up R 59% → Lean R 60% | pending |
| Oct 22, 12:08 PM ET | Florida 14 (House) | Likely D 81% → Lean D 72% | hurt |
| Oct 22, 12:08 PM ET | Kentucky 6 (House) | Toss-up R 60% → Lean R 61% | pending |
| Oct 22, 12:08 PM ET | North Carolina 10 (House) | Likely R 94.9% → Solid/Safe R 95.1% | pending |
| Oct 22, 12:08 PM ET | Pennsylvania 8 (House) | Likely D 76% → Lean D 75% | pending |
| Oct 22, 4:09 PM ET | Alabama 2 (House) | Lean R 60% → Toss-up R 59% | pending |
| Oct 22, 4:09 PM ET | North Carolina 10 (House) | Solid/Safe R 95.1% → Likely R 94.9% | pending |
| Oct 22, 4:09 PM ET | Pennsylvania 8 (House) | Lean D 75% → Likely D 76% | pending |
| Oct 22, 4:09 PM ET | Texas 35 (House) | Toss-up D 59% → Lean D 60% | pending |
| Oct 22, 6:07 PM ET | Kentucky 6 (House) | Lean R 60% → Toss-up R 59% | pending |
| Oct 22, 10:09 PM ET | Kentucky 6 (House) | Toss-up R 59% → Lean R 60% | pending |
| Oct 22, 10:09 PM ET | North Carolina 10 (House) | Likely R 94.8% → Solid/Safe R 95.0% | pending |
| Oct 22, 10:09 PM ET | Texas 35 (House) | Lean D 61% → Toss-up D 60% | pending |
| Oct 23, 2:05 PM ET | Alaska at-large (House) | Lean R 61% → Toss-up R 60% | pending |
| Oct 23, 2:05 PM ET | North Carolina 10 (House) | Solid/Safe R 95.0% → Likely R 95.0% | pending |
| Oct 23, 10:09 PM ET | Colorado 5 (House) | Lean D 61% → Toss-up D 59% | pending |
| Oct 23, 10:09 PM ET | Kansas 2 (House) | Solid/Safe R 97% → Likely R 94% | pending |
| Oct 24, 2:08 AM ET | Mississippi Senate | Solid/Safe R 98% → Likely R 96% | pending |
| Oct 24, 12:11 PM ET | Alaska at-large (House) | Toss-up R 59.9% → Lean R 60.0% | pending |
| Oct 24, 12:11 PM ET | Colorado 3 (House) | Toss-up D 50.0% → Toss-up 50.0% | pending |
| Oct 24, 12:11 PM ET | North Carolina 10 (House) | Likely R 95.0% → Solid/Safe R 95.1% | pending |
| Oct 24, 12:12 PM ET | Florida Senate | Likely R 75% → Lean R 74% | hurt |
| Oct 25, 12:11 PM ET | Colorado 3 (House) | Toss-up 50.0% → Toss-up R 50.1% | pending |
| Oct 25, 4:10 PM ET | Florida Senate | Lean R 74% → Likely R 75% | helped |
| Oct 25, 4:10 PM ET | Georgia 7 (House) | Likely R 95.0% → Solid/Safe R 95.0% | pending |
| Oct 25, 4:10 PM ET | Ohio 15 (House) | Toss-up D 50.2% → Toss-up R 50.0% | pending |
| Oct 25, 4:10 PM ET | Washington 5 (House) | Lean R 74.7% → Likely R 75.3% | pending |
| Oct 25, 6:11 PM ET | Florida 21 (House) | Likely R 95.0% → Solid/Safe R 95.1% | pending |
| Oct 26, 12:12 PM ET | Kansas Senate | Toss-up D 50% → Toss-up R 51% | pending |
| Oct 26, 12:12 PM ET | Florida 21 (House) | Solid/Safe R 95.1% → Likely R 95.0% | pending |
| Oct 26, 12:12 PM ET | Michigan 10 (House) | Likely D 76% → Lean D 67% | pending |
| Oct 26, 4:08 PM ET | Georgia 7 (House) | Solid/Safe R 95.0% → Likely R 95.0% | pending |
| Oct 26, 4:08 PM ET | Ohio 15 (House) | Toss-up R 50.3% → Toss-up D 50.0% | pending |
| Oct 26, 6:09 PM ET | Georgia 7 (House) | Likely R 95.0% → Solid/Safe R 95.0% | pending |
| Oct 26, 6:09 PM ET | Ohio 15 (House) | Toss-up D 50.0% → Toss-up R 50.3% | pending |
| Oct 27, 12:11 PM ET | Alabama 2 (House) | Toss-up R 59.6% → Lean R 60.5% | pending |
| Oct 27, 12:11 PM ET | Florida 21 (House) | Likely R 95.0% → Solid/Safe R 95.1% | pending |
| Oct 27, 12:11 PM ET | Minnesota 1 (House) | Toss-up R 60% → Lean R 61% | pending |
| Oct 27, 12:11 PM ET | Ohio 7 (House) | Lean D 60% → Toss-up D 59% | pending |
| Oct 27, 4:09 PM ET | Florida 18 (House) | Likely R 94.9% → Solid/Safe R 95.0% | pending |
| Oct 27, 4:09 PM ET | Florida 22 (House) | Lean D 61% → Toss-up D 60% | hurt |
| Oct 27, 4:09 PM ET | Ohio 8 (House) | Likely R 94.9% → Solid/Safe R 95.1% | pending |
| Oct 27, 4:09 PM ET | Ohio 15 (House) | Toss-up R 51% → Toss-up D 50% | pending |
| Oct 27, 6:09 PM ET | Alabama 2 (House) | Lean R 60.3% → Toss-up R 60.0% | pending |
| Oct 27, 6:09 PM ET | Florida 18 (House) | Solid/Safe R 95.0% → Likely R 94.9% | pending |
| Oct 27, 6:09 PM ET | Florida 22 (House) | Toss-up D 59.8% → Lean D 60.2% | helped |
| Oct 27, 10:11 PM ET | Alabama 2 (House) | Toss-up R 60.0% → Lean R 60.5% | pending |
| Oct 27, 10:11 PM ET | Florida 18 (House) | Likely R 94.9% → Solid/Safe R 95.2% | pending |
| Oct 27, 10:11 PM ET | Florida 22 (House) | Lean D 60% → Toss-up D 59% | hurt |
| Oct 27, 10:11 PM ET | Ohio 15 (House) | Toss-up D 50.4% → Toss-up R 50.1% | pending |
| Oct 27, 10:11 PM ET | Virginia 1 (House) | Likely D 76% → Lean D 75% | pending |
| Oct 28, 12:10 PM ET | Ohio 15 (House) | Toss-up R 50.1% → Toss-up D 50.1% | pending |
| Oct 28, 4:11 PM ET | Ohio 15 (House) | Toss-up D 50.1% → Toss-up R 50.2% | pending |
| Oct 28, 4:11 PM ET | Virginia 1 (House) | Lean D 74.9% → Likely D 75.1% | pending |
| Oct 28, 6:09 PM ET | Florida 27 (House) | Lean R 74.9% → Likely R 75.3% | pending |
| Oct 28, 6:09 PM ET | Montana 1 (House) | Toss-up D 50% → Toss-up R 51% | pending |
| Oct 28, 6:09 PM ET | Pennsylvania 8 (House) | Likely D 75% → Lean D 74% | pending |
| Oct 28, 6:09 PM ET | Texas 24 (House) | Likely R 94.9% → Solid/Safe R 95.0% | pending |
| Oct 28, 6:09 PM ET | Virginia 1 (House) | Likely D 75% → Lean D 74% | pending |
| Oct 29, 12:10 PM ET | Kansas Senate | Toss-up R 53% → Toss-up D 52% | pending |
| Oct 29, 12:10 PM ET | Texas Senate | Toss-up D 58% → Lean D 61% | pending |
| Oct 29, 6:12 PM ET | Ohio 15 (House) | Toss-up R 50.6% → Toss-up D 50.8% | pending |
| Oct 29, 10:09 PM ET | Montana 1 (House) | Toss-up R 50% → Toss-up D 52% | pending |
| Oct 30, 12:11 PM ET | Kansas 2 (House) | Likely R 95.0% → Solid/Safe R 95.3% | pending |
| Oct 30, 12:11 PM ET | North Carolina 6 (House) | Likely R 95.0% → Solid/Safe R 95.4% | pending |
| Oct 30, 12:11 PM ET | Nebraska 1 (House) | Lean R 74.6% → Likely R 75.2% | pending |
| Oct 30, 12:11 PM ET | Ohio 15 (House) | Toss-up D 50.2% → Toss-up R 50.1% | pending |
| Oct 30, 12:11 PM ET | Pennsylvania 8 (House) | Lean D 74% → Likely D 76% | pending |
| Oct 30, 4:10 PM ET | Nebraska Senate | Likely R 75% → Lean R 74% | pending |
| Oct 30, 4:10 PM ET | Florida 2 (House) | Likely R 95.0% → Solid/Safe R 95.1% | pending |
| Oct 30, 6:11 PM ET | South Dakota Senate | Solid/Safe R 98% → Likely R 97% | pending |
| Oct 30, 6:11 PM ET | Florida 2 (House) | Solid/Safe R 95.1% → Likely R 94.9% | pending |
| Oct 30, 6:11 PM ET | Ohio 15 (House) | Toss-up R 50.2% → Toss-up D 50.2% | pending |
| Oct 30, 10:09 PM ET | South Dakota Senate | Likely R 97% → Solid/Safe R 98% | pending |
| Oct 30, 10:09 PM ET | Florida 2 (House) | Likely R 94.9% → Solid/Safe R 95.0% | pending |
| Oct 30, 10:09 PM ET | Ohio 15 (House) | Toss-up D 50.2% → Toss-up R 50.1% | pending |
| Oct 31, 12:08 PM ET | Nebraska Senate | Lean R 74% → Likely R 78% | pending |
| Oct 31, 4:12 PM ET | Pennsylvania 8 (House) | Likely D 75.4% → Lean D 75.0% | pending |
| Oct 31, 6:08 PM ET | Ohio Senate | Lean D 61% → Toss-up D 59% | pending |
| Oct 31, 10:11 PM ET | Iowa 2 (House) | Lean D 60.1% → Toss-up D 59.7% | pending |
| Nov 1, 3:11 PM ET | Maine 2 (House) | Lean D 60.2% → Toss-up D 60.0% | pending |
| Nov 1, 3:11 PM ET | Montana 1 (House) | Toss-up D 50.1% → Toss-up R 50.1% | pending |
| Nov 1, 3:11 PM ET | Pennsylvania 10 (House) | Likely D 75.2% → Lean D 74.6% | pending |
| Nov 1, 9:08 PM ET | Ohio Senate | Toss-up D 59% → Lean D 60% | pending |
| Nov 1, 9:39 PM ET | Georgia Senate | Likely D 97% → Solid/Safe D 98% | pending |
| Nov 1, 9:39 PM ET | Maine Senate | Lean D 72% → Likely D 76% | pending |
| Nov 1, 9:39 PM ET | Michigan Senate | Lean D 73% → Likely D 78% | pending |
| Nov 1, 9:39 PM ET | Mississippi Senate | Likely R 97% → Solid/Safe R 98% | pending |
| Nov 2, 10:41 AM ET | Montana 1 (House) | Toss-up R 50.0% → Toss-up D 50.2% | pending |
| Nov 2, 10:41 AM ET | Pennsylvania 10 (House) | Lean D 74.7% → Likely D 75.2% | pending |
| Nov 2, 2:42 PM ET | Iowa Senate | Toss-up D 51% → Toss-up R 50% | pending |
| Nov 2, 2:42 PM ET | Kansas Senate | Toss-up D 58% → Lean D 62% | pending |
| Nov 2, 2:42 PM ET | Iowa 2 (House) | Toss-up D 60% → Lean D 61% | pending |
| Nov 2, 2:42 PM ET | Pennsylvania 8 (House) | Lean D 74.9% → Likely D 75.3% | pending |
| Nov 2, 5:39 PM ET | Iowa 2 (House) | Lean D 61% → Toss-up D 60% | pending |
| Nov 2, 5:39 PM ET | Pennsylvania 8 (House) | Likely D 75.3% → Lean D 74.9% | pending |
| Nov 2, 5:39 PM ET | Tennessee 9 (House) | Likely R 93% → Solid/Safe R 95% | pending |
| Nov 2, 9:40 PM ET | Iowa Senate | Toss-up R 50.5% → Toss-up D 50.7% | pending |
| Nov 2, 9:40 PM ET | Montana 1 (House) | Toss-up D 50.5% → Toss-up R 50.9% | pending |
| Nov 2, 9:40 PM ET | Pennsylvania 10 (House) | Likely D 75.3% → Lean D 74.7% | pending |
| Nov 3, 9:09 AM ET | Iowa Senate | Toss-up D 51% → Toss-up R 50% | pending |
| Nov 3, 9:09 AM ET | New York 1 (House) | Lean R 73% → Likely R 75% | pending |
| Nov 3, 9:09 AM ET | Texas 32 (House) | Likely R 94.8% → Solid/Safe R 95.3% | pending |
Every battleground
All 86 it rated
| Race | Forecast | Call | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Alaska at-large (House) | Lean Rep · R 63% | R | Not yet called |
| Alabama 2 (House) | Lean Rep · R 63% | R | Not yet called |
| Arizona 1 (House) | Likely Dem · D 89% | D | Not yet called |
| Arizona 2 (House) | Lean Rep · R 68% | R | Not yet called |
| Arizona 6 (House) | Likely Dem · D 89% | D | Not yet called |
| California 13 (House) | Safe Dem · D 100% | D | Not yet called |
| California 22 (House) | Likely Dem · D 92% | D | Not yet called |
| California 48 (House) | Safe Dem · D 95% | D | Not yet called |
| Colorado 3 (House) | Toss-Up · R 52% | Toss-up | Not yet called |
| Colorado 4 (House) | Likely Rep · R 89% | R | Not yet called |
| Colorado 5 (House) | Toss-Up · D 54% | Toss-up | Not yet called |
| Colorado 8 (House) | Likely Dem · D 91% | D | Not yet called |
| Florida 4 (House) | Likely Rep · R 86% | R | Not yet called |
| Florida 7 (House) | Lean Rep · R 64% | R | Not yet called |
| Florida 9 (House) | Likely Rep · R 81% | R | Not yet called |
| Florida 13 (House) | Lean Rep · R 70% | R | Not yet called |
| Florida 14 (House) | Lean Dem · D 64% | D ✓ | D Democrat hold · called Nov 3, 7:52 PM ET |
| Florida 16 (House) | Lean Rep · R 74% | R | Not yet called |
| Florida 22 (House) | Toss-Up · D 56% | Toss-up · ½ | D Democrat hold · called Nov 3, 8:12 PM ET |
| Florida 25 (House) | Lean Dem · D 70% | D ✓ | D Democrat hold · called Nov 3, 8:04 PM ET |
| Florida 27 (House) | Likely Rep · R 78% | R | Not yet called |
| Iowa 1 (House) | Likely Dem · D 79% | D | Not yet called |
| Iowa 2 (House) | Toss-Up · D 58% | Toss-up | Not yet called |
| Iowa 3 (House) | Likely Dem · D 89% | D | Not yet called |
| Kentucky 6 (House) | Lean Rep · R 66% | R | Not yet called |
| Maine 2 (House) | Toss-Up · D 53% | Toss-up | Not yet called |
| Michigan 4 (House) | Lean Dem · D 63% | D | Not yet called |
| Michigan 7 (House) | Likely Dem · D 87% | D | Not yet called |
| Michigan 10 (House) | Lean Dem · D 63% | D | Not yet called |
| Minnesota 1 (House) | Lean Rep · R 65% | R | Not yet called |
| Missouri 2 (House) | Toss-Up · D 51% | Toss-up | Not yet called |
| Montana 1 (House) | Toss-Up · R 52% | Toss-up | Not yet called |
| North Carolina 1 (House) | Lean Dem · D 61% | D | Not yet called |
| North Carolina 3 (House) | Likely Rep · R 84% | R | Not yet called |
| North Carolina 11 (House) | Lean Dem · D 64% | D ✓ | D Democrat flip · called Nov 3, 8:34 PM ET |
| Nebraska 2 (House) | Safe Dem · D 100% | D | Not yet called |
| New Hampshire 1 (House) | Safe Dem · D 98% | D ✓ | D Democrat hold · called Nov 3, 8:04 PM ET |
| New Jersey 2 (House) | Likely Rep · R 88% | R | Not yet called |
| New Jersey 7 (House) | Likely Dem · D 90% | D | Not yet called |
| New Mexico 2 (House) | Likely Dem · D 92% | D | Not yet called |
| Nevada 1 (House) | Safe Dem · D 100% | D | Not yet called |
| Nevada 2 (House) | Lean Rep · R 71% | R | Not yet called |
| Nevada 3 (House) | Safe Dem · D 98% | D | Not yet called |
| New York 1 (House) | Likely Rep · R 75% | R | Not yet called |
| New York 3 (House) | Safe Dem · D 96% | D | Not yet called |
| New York 4 (House) | Safe Dem · D 99% | D | Not yet called |
| New York 17 (House) | Likely Dem · D 89% | D | Not yet called |
| New York 21 (House) | Likely Rep · R 85% | R | Not yet called |
| Ohio 1 (House) | Likely Dem · D 92% | D | Not yet called |
| Ohio 7 (House) | Toss-Up · D 55% | Toss-up | Not yet called |
| Ohio 9 (House) | Lean Dem · D 68% | D | Not yet called |
| Ohio 10 (House) | Toss-Up · R 56% | Toss-up | Not yet called |
| Ohio 15 (House) | Toss-Up · R 53% | Toss-up | Not yet called |
| Pennsylvania 1 (House) | Likely Dem · D 84% | D | Not yet called |
| Pennsylvania 7 (House) | Likely Dem · D 88% | D | Not yet called |
| Pennsylvania 8 (House) | Lean Dem · D 73% | D | Not yet called |
| Pennsylvania 10 (House) | Lean Dem · D 74% | D | Not yet called |
| South Carolina 1 (House) | Lean Rep · R 67% | R | Not yet called |
| Tennessee 5 (House) | Safe Rep · R 96% | R | Not yet called |
| Tennessee 9 (House) | Safe Rep · R 96% | R | Not yet called |
| Texas 9 (House) | Likely Rep · R 93% | R | Not yet called |
| Texas 15 (House) | Lean Rep · R 71% | R | Not yet called |
| Texas 23 (House) | Lean Rep · R 75% | R | Not yet called |
| Texas 28 (House) | Likely Dem · D 88% | D | Not yet called |
| Texas 34 (House) | Lean Dem · D 67% | D | Not yet called |
| Texas 35 (House) | Toss-Up · D 53% | Toss-up | Not yet called |
| Virginia 1 (House) | Lean Dem · D 72% | D | Not yet called |
| Virginia 2 (House) | Likely Dem · D 91% | D | Not yet called |
| Virginia 5 (House) | Lean Rep · R 66% | R | Not yet called |
| Washington 3 (House) | Likely Dem · D 86% | D | Not yet called |
| Wisconsin 1 (House) | Lean Dem · D 67% | D | Not yet called |
| Wisconsin 3 (House) | Likely Dem · D 78% | D | Not yet called |
| Alaska Senate | Lean D · D 68% | D | Not yet called |
| Florida Senate | Likely R · R 86% | R ✓ | R Republican hold · called Nov 3, 8:03 PM ET |
| Iowa Senate | Tossup · R 50% | Toss-up | Not yet called |
| Kansas Senate | Lean D · D 65% | D | Not yet called |
| Maine Senate | Likely D · D 79% | D | Not yet called |
| Michigan Senate | Likely D · D 78% | D | Not yet called |
| Minnesota Senate | Likely D · D 89% | D | Not yet called |
| Montana Senate | Safe R · R 87% | R | Not yet called |
| North Carolina Senate | Likely D · D 97% | D | Not yet called |
| Nebraska Senate | Likely R · R 83% | R | Not yet called |
| New Hampshire Senate | Likely D · D 94% | D | Not yet called |
| Ohio Senate | Lean D · D 66% | D | Not yet called |
| South Carolina Senate | Lean R · R 62% | R | Not yet called |
| Texas Senate | Lean D · D 65% | D | Not yet called |
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