Bleacher Report · NFL 2026 · weeks 1–5

Brent Sobleski's 2026 NFL picks and record

33–45–1

Against the spread · 33 wins · 45 losses · 1 push

How these picks were recorded · 79 picks

79 Added after the game

What the labels mean

Week 6 picks not recorded yet · last checked Oct 14, 11:21 a.m. ET

View every pick

Record so far

Brent Sobleski is against the spread 33-45-1 (42.3%).

Against the spread: 33-45-142.3% of 78 decided · 95% range 32–53%
Current streak, ATS: 1 win in a rowLongest: 4 wins in a row

See points and comparisons

79 graded picks added from Bleacher Report pages after the games.

Market-adjusted results
Pick log
By week
Does this match the outlet?
Record in each team's games

Market-adjusted results

Three numbers for each market: the record, market-adjusted points and a simple rule to compare with. Points count each pick as if it were a 1-point play at the market price at the time of the pick (for picks added after the game, the price at the start of that NFL week), with the bookmaker margin taken out: a win adds what that price paid (more for an underdog, less for a favorite), a loss takes away 1 point, a push counts 0. Zero is the expected score if market probabilities are accurate. How we score fairly

The 2026 season, the last four weeks and the live record (picks we recorded before kickoff, from Week 6), where there is one. A straight-up pick without a two-sided price at the time is left out of points; a spread or total pick without a price on its own line counts at even odds.
Market and period	Record in these picks	Market-adjusted points	Simple rule
Against the spread 2026 season	33-45-1	−12.0 points 79 picks scored · 6 with recorded odds, 73 at assumed even odds −0.15 per pick · 95% range −0.39 to +0.08 per pick	Coin flip: 50% 39 of 78 decided
Against the spread Weeks 2–5	26-36-1	−10.0 points 63 picks scored · 1 with recorded odds, 62 at assumed even odds −0.16 per pick · 95% range −0.41 to +0.10 per pick	Coin flip: 50% 31 of 62 decided

Market-adjusted points against the spread, week by week: 79 scored picks, weeks 1–5. Points, this expert; zero is a coin flip on average Against the spread, 2026 season: −12.0 points 79 picks scored · 6 with recorded odds, 73 at assumed even odds. Zero is where a coin flip lands on average. Each point is the total after that week. As of Week 6 (data Oct 14, 2026).

Show as table

Market-adjusted points by week, against the spread (79 scored picks).
Week	Picks scored	Points that week	Season so far
Week 1	16	−2.0	−2.0
Week 2	16	0.0	−2.0
Week 3	16	−3.0	−5.0
Week 4	16	0.0	−5.0
Week 5	15	−7.0	−12.0

Picks from the latest 4 weeks

Full pick log, all 5 weeks

Week 5 · ATS 4-11-0

Game	Against the spread	Final	How we got it
TB at DAL Thu, Oct 8	DAL -9.5 Loss	TB 24, DAL 16	Added after the game
PHI at JAX Sun, Oct 11	JAX -6.5 Loss	PHI 17, JAX 19	Added after the game
CHI at GB Sun, Oct 11	CHI -2.5 Loss	CHI 7, GB 31	Added after the game
CIN at MIA Sun, Oct 11	CIN -7.5 Loss	CIN 31, MIA 24	Added after the game
CLE at NYJ Sun, Oct 11	CLE +1.5 Loss	CLE 12, NYJ 17	Added after the game
HOU at TEN Sun, Oct 11	HOU -6.5 Win	HOU 26, TEN 3	Added after the game
IND at PIT Sun, Oct 11	IND +1.5 Loss	IND 22, PIT 34	Added after the game
LV at NE Sun, Oct 11	LV +3.5 Loss	LV 17, NE 45	Added after the game
MIN at NO Sun, Oct 11	NO +1.5 Loss	MIN 23, NO 13	Added after the game
NYG at WSH Sun, Oct 11	WSH -3.5 Loss	NYG 27, WSH 27	Added after the game
DEN at LAC Sun, Oct 11	DEN -3.5 Win	DEN 23, LAC 17	Added after the game
DET at ARI Sun, Oct 11	ARI +4.5 Loss	DET 45, ARI 21	Added after the game
SF at SEA Sun, Oct 11	SF +3 Win	SF 32, SEA 29	Added after the game
BAL at ATL Sun, Oct 11	ATL +2.5 Loss	BAL 30, ATL 23	Added after the game
BUF at LAR Mon, Oct 12	BUF +2.5 Win	BUF 37, LAR 34	Added after the game

All Week 5 picks

Week 4 · ATS 8-8-0

Game	Against the spread	Final	How we got it
PIT at CLE Thu, Oct 1	CLE +2.5 Win	PIT 24, CLE 27	Added after the game
IND at WSH Sun, Oct 4	IND -3.5 Win	IND 30, WSH 13	Added after the game
ARI at NYG Sun, Oct 4	ARI +1.5 Loss	ARI 24, NYG 36	Added after the game
DAL at HOU Sun, Oct 4	DAL +2.5 Win	DAL 34, HOU 30	Added after the game
GB at TB Sun, Oct 4	TB +3.5 Win	GB 17, TB 14	Added after the game
JAX at CIN Sun, Oct 4	JAX +2.5 Win	JAX 22, CIN 17	Added after the game
LAR at PHI Sun, Oct 4	PHI +3 Loss	LAR 24, PHI 20	Added after the game
NE at BUF Sun, Oct 4	BUF -6.5 Loss	NE 29, BUF 26	Added after the game
NYJ at CHI Sun, Oct 4	NYJ +3.5 Loss	NYJ 12, CHI 23	Added after the game
TEN at BAL Sun, Oct 4	BAL -11.5 Loss	TEN 18, BAL 24	Added after the game
MIA at MIN Sun, Oct 4	MIN -10.5 Loss	MIA 10, MIN 15	Added after the game
DEN at SF Sun, Oct 4	DEN +2.5 Loss	DEN 14, SF 24	Added after the game
KC at LV Sun, Oct 4	LV +4.5 Win	KC 30, LV 27	Added after the game
LAC at SEA Sun, Oct 4	SEA -6.5 Win	LAC 23, SEA 30	Added after the game
DET at CAR Sun, Oct 4	DET -3.5 Loss	DET 26, CAR 32	Added after the game
ATL at NO Mon, Oct 5	ATL +2.5 Win	ATL 45, NO 24	Added after the game

All Week 4 picks

Week 3 · ATS 6-9-1

Game	Against the spread	Final	How we got it
ATL at GB Thu, Sept 24	GB -6.5 Loss	ATL 35, GB 14	Added after the game
CAR at CLE Sun, Sept 27	CAR -2.5 Loss	CAR 18, CLE 21	Added after the game
CIN at PIT Sun, Sept 27	CIN -3.5 Loss	CIN 27, PIT 30	Added after the game
HOU at IND Sun, Sept 27	IND +2.5 Win	HOU 17, IND 19	Added after the game
KC at MIA Sun, Sept 27	KC -10.5 Win	KC 24, MIA 10	Added after the game
LAC at BUF Sun, Sept 27	BUF -7 Win	LAC 16, BUF 24	Added after the game
NE at JAX Sun, Sept 27	JAX -2.5 Win	NE 6, JAX 35	Added after the game
NYJ at DET Sun, Sept 27	NYJ +6.5 Loss	NYJ 24, DET 31	Added after the game
SEA at WSH Sun, Sept 27	SEA -6.5 Loss	SEA 31, WSH 33	Added after the game
TEN at NYG Sun, Sept 27	TEN +3 Loss	TEN 7, NYG 12	Added after the game
ARI at SF Sun, Sept 27	SF -8.5 Loss	ARI 30, SF 36	Added after the game
MIN at TB Sun, Sept 27	TB +1.5 Loss	MIN 23, TB 16	Added after the game
BAL at DAL Sun, Sept 27	DAL +3 Push	BAL 34, DAL 31	Added after the game
LV at NO Sun, Sept 27	LV +3 Win	LV 35, NO 27	Added after the game
LAR at DEN Sun, Sept 27	DEN +2.5 Win	LAR 26, DEN 30	Added after the game
PHI at CHI Mon, Sept 28	PHI -4.5 Loss	PHI 7, CHI 27	Added after the game

All Week 3 picks

Week 2 · ATS 8-8-0

Game	Against the spread	Final	How we got it
DET at BUF Thu, Sept 17	BUF -4.5 Win	DET 31, BUF 41	Added after the game
CAR at ATL Sun, Sept 20	CAR -1.5 Win	CAR 34, ATL 3	Added after the game
CIN at HOU Sun, Sept 20	CIN +3 Win	CIN 20, HOU 6	Added after the game
CLE at TB Sun, Sept 20	TB -8.5 Loss	CLE 23, TB 19	Added after the game
GB at NYJ Sun, Sept 20	NYJ +3.5 Win	GB 20, NYJ 17	Added after the game
MIN at CHI Sun, Sept 20	CHI -5.5 Loss	MIN 9, CHI 3	Added after the game
NO at BAL Sun, Sept 20	BAL -8.5 Loss	NO 24, BAL 17	Added after the game
PHI at TEN Sun, Sept 20	PHI -7 Loss	PHI 24, TEN 20	Added after the game
PIT at NE Sun, Sept 20	PIT +4.5 Loss	PIT 3, NE 20	Added after the game
JAX at DEN Sun, Sept 20	JAX +2.5 Loss	JAX 13, DEN 20	Added after the game
LV at LAC Sun, Sept 20	LV +7 Win	LV 26, LAC 14	Added after the game
MIA at SF Sun, Sept 20	SF -13.5 Win	MIA 13, SF 35	Added after the game
SEA at ARI Sun, Sept 20	ARI +4.5 Loss	SEA 31, ARI 7	Added after the game
WSH at DAL Sun, Sept 20	DAL -3.5 Win	WSH 20, DAL 37	Added after the game
IND at KC Sun, Sept 20	IND +6.5 Win	IND 30, KC 33	Added after the game
NYG at LAR Mon, Sept 21	NYG +7.5 Loss	NYG 6, LAR 28	Added after the game

All Week 2 picks

By week

W-L-P by week.
Week	Against the spread
Week 1	7-9-0
Week 2	8-8-0
Week 3	6-9-1
Week 4	8-8-0
Week 5	4-11-0
Season	33-45-1

Does this match Bleacher Report?

Bleacher Report prints ATS standings in its weekly article. Our week-by-week check of the whole panel against them is on the Bleacher Report page.

By team

AFC East

AFC North

AFC South

AFC West

NFC East

NFC North

NFC South

NFC West

80% or more right
70–79%
60–69%
over 50%, under 60%
50% or under
fewer than 3 picks

Best read: Houston Texans games, 4–1 against the spread (5 picks); also Los Angeles Chargers games, 4–1 against the spread (5 picks); Las Vegas Raiders games, 4–1 against the spread (5 picks).Each tile: against the spread record in games involving the team. Shaded where more than half are right, darker for a higher share (12 of 32 teams); grey: half or fewer right, or fewer than 3 picks. 78 decided against the spread picks, as of Week 6 (data Oct 14, 2026). Tap a team for these picks in its games; team pages are linked in the table.