USA Today · NFL 2026 · weeks 4–6
Adam Kaufman's 2026 NFL picks and record
Record so far
Adam Kaufman is straight up 19-11-1 (63.3%) and against the spread 15-14-0 (51.7%).
- Straight up
- 19-11-163.3% of 30 decided · 95% range 46–78%
- Against the spread
- 15-14-051.7% of 29 decided · 95% range 34–69%
- Longest run, straight up
- 7wins in a row this season
- Longest run, ATS
- 3wins in a row this season
Market-adjusted points Pick results adjusted for market odds.
- Straight up, 2026 season: +0.3 points 19 picks scored · 19 of 31 with recorded odds · The estimated range includes zero; 10-8-1 in these games; picking every favorite in the same 19 games: 9-9-1.
- Against the spread, 2026 season: +1.0 points 29 picks scored · 0 with recorded odds, 29 at assumed even odds · The estimated range includes zero; 15-14 (51.7%); a coin flip averages 50%.
Each pick counts as a 1-point play at the no-margin market price; zero is the expected score if market probabilities are accurate. Compare all pick types · How these points are calculated
60 graded picks added from USA Today pages after the games; 10 picks waiting for a result (recorded by us before kickoff).
Market-adjusted results
Three numbers for each market: the record, market-adjusted points and a simple rule to compare with. Points count each pick as if it were a 1-point play at the market price at the time of the pick (for picks added after the game, the price at the start of that NFL week), with the bookmaker margin taken out: a win adds what that price paid (more for an underdog, less for a favorite), a loss takes away 1 point, a push counts 0. Zero is the expected score if market probabilities are accurate. How we score fairly
| Market and period | Record in these picks | Market-adjusted points | Simple rule |
|---|---|---|---|
| Straight up 2026 season | 10-8-1 | +0.3 points 19 picks scored · 19 of 31 with recorded odds +0.01 per pick · 95% range −0.39 to +0.44 per pick | Every favorite: 9-9-1 same 19 games |
| Against the spread 2026 season | 15-14 | +1.0 points 29 picks scored · 0 with recorded odds, 29 at assumed even odds +0.03 per pick · 95% range −0.31 to +0.38 per pick | Coin flip: 50% 14.5 of 29 decided |
- Adam Kaufman+0.3 vs -2.8 favorites
Teal: the expert's market-adjusted points. Grey: picking every favorite in the same games, scored the same way. Zero is the expected score if market probabilities are accurate.
Every pick
Week 6 · SU 0-0-0; ATS 0-0-0
| Game | Straight up | Against the spread | Final | Predicted score | How we got it |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| HOU at JAX Sun, Oct 18 | HOU Pending | HOU +1.5 Pending | Not played | HOU 23-20 | Recorded before kickoff |
| BAL at CLE Sun, Oct 18 | BAL Pending | BAL -6.5 Pending | Not played | BAL 27-17 | Recorded before kickoff |
| TEN at IND Sun, Oct 18 | IND Pending | IND -3.5 Pending | Not played | IND 24-17 | Recorded before kickoff |
| ARI at LAR Sun, Oct 18 | LAR Pending | LAR -13.5 Pending | Not played | LAR 34-20 | Recorded before kickoff |
| DAL at GB Sun, Oct 18 | GB Pending | GB -3 Pending | Not played | GB 31-27 | Recorded before kickoff |
Week 5 · SU 9-5-1; ATS 8-6-0
| Game | Straight up | Against the spread | Final | Predicted score | How we got it |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TB at DAL Thu, Oct 8 | DAL Loss | DAL -3.5 Loss | TB 24, DAL 16 | DAL 27-17 | Added after the game |
| PHI at JAX Sun, Oct 11 | JAX Win | JAX +1.5 Win | PHI 17, JAX 19 | JAX 23-20 | Added after the game |
| CHI at GB Sun, Oct 11 | CHI Loss | CHI +3 Loss | CHI 7, GB 31 | CHI 24-20 | Added after the game |
| CIN at MIA Sun, Oct 11 | CIN Win | CIN -6 Win | CIN 31, MIA 24 | CIN 24-16 | Added after the game |
| CLE at NYJ Sun, Oct 11 | CLE Loss | CLE +1.5 Loss | CLE 12, NYJ 17 | CLE 20-17 | Added after the game |
| HOU at TEN Sun, Oct 11 | HOU Win | HOU -3.5 Win | HOU 26, TEN 3 | HOU 27-17 | Added after the game |
| IND at PIT Sun, Oct 11 | PIT Win | PIT -2.5 Win | IND 22, PIT 34 | PIT 24-20 | Added after the game |
| LV at NE Sun, Oct 11 | NE Win | LV +8.5 Loss | LV 17, NE 45 | NE 27-23 | Added after the game |
| MIN at NO Sun, Oct 11 | MIN Win | MIN -1.5 Win | MIN 23, NO 13 | MIN 23-20 | Added after the game |
| NYG at WSH Sun, Oct 11 | WSH Push | NYG +2.5 Win | NYG 27, WSH 27 | WSH 24-23 | Added after the game |
| DEN at LAC Sun, Oct 11 | DEN Win | DEN +2.5 Win | DEN 23, LAC 17 | DEN 24-17 | Added after the game |
| DET at ARI Sun, Oct 11 | DET Win | ARI +8.5 Loss | DET 45, ARI 21 | DET 31-24 | Added after the game |
| SF at SEA Sun, Oct 11 | SF Win | SF +3.5 Win | SF 32, SEA 29 | SF 27-24 | Added after the game |
| BAL at ATL Sun, Oct 11 | ATL Loss | ATL +4.5 Loss | BAL 30, ATL 23 | ATL 24-20 | Added after the game |
| BUF at LAR Mon, Oct 12 | LAR Loss | — | BUF 37, LAR 34 | LAR 30-27 | Added after the game |
Week 4 · SU 10-6-0; ATS 7-8-0
| Game | Straight up | Against the spread | Final | Predicted score | How we got it |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIT at CLE Thu, Oct 1 | PIT Loss | PIT -2.5 Loss | PIT 24, CLE 27 | PIT 20-17 | Added after the game |
| IND at WSH Sun, Oct 4 | IND Win | IND +1.5 Win | IND 30, WSH 13 | IND 26-23 | Added after the game |
| ARI at NYG Sun, Oct 4 | ARI Loss | ARI +7 Loss | ARI 24, NYG 36 | ARI 23-20 | Added after the game |
| DAL at HOU Sun, Oct 4 | DAL Win | DAL +3.5 Win | DAL 34, HOU 30 | DAL 27-24 | Added after the game |
| GB at TB Sun, Oct 4 | GB Win | GB -1.5 Win | GB 17, TB 14 | GB 24-13 | Added after the game |
| JAX at CIN Sun, Oct 4 | CIN Loss | CIN -2.5 Loss | JAX 22, CIN 17 | CIN 30-27 | Added after the game |
| LAR at PHI Sun, Oct 4 | LAR Win | LAR -1.5 Win | LAR 24, PHI 20 | LAR 24-21 | Added after the game |
| NE at BUF Sun, Oct 4 | BUF Loss | BUF -3 Loss | NE 29, BUF 26 | BUF 30-23 | Added after the game |
| NYJ at CHI Sun, Oct 4 | CHI Win | NYJ +8.5 Loss | NYJ 12, CHI 23 | CHI 23-20 | Added after the game |
| TEN at BAL Sun, Oct 4 | BAL Win | BAL -8.5 Loss | TEN 18, BAL 24 | BAL 31-13 | Added after the game |
| MIA at MIN Sun, Oct 4 | MIN Win | — | MIA 10, MIN 15 | MIN 27-13 | Added after the game |
| DEN at SF Sun, Oct 4 | SF Win | SF -1.5 Win | DEN 14, SF 24 | SF 27-24 | Added after the game |
| KC at LV Sun, Oct 4 | KC Win | LV +4.5 Win | KC 30, LV 27 | KC 27-23 | Added after the game |
| LAC at SEA Sun, Oct 4 | SEA Win | SEA -7.5 Loss | LAC 23, SEA 30 | SEA 24-16 | Added after the game |
| DET at CAR Sun, Oct 4 | DET Loss | CAR +3.5 Win | DET 26, CAR 32 | DET 30-27 | Added after the game |
| ATL at NO Mon, Oct 5 | NO Loss | NO -1.5 Loss | ATL 45, NO 24 | NO 27-24 | Added after the game |
By week
| Week | Straight up | Against the spread |
|---|---|---|
| Week 4 | 10-6-0 | 7-8-0 |
| Week 5 | 9-5-1 | 8-6-0 |
| Week 6 | 0-0-0 | 0-0-0 |
| Season | 19-11-1 | 15-14-0 |
Does this match USA Today?
USA Today does not print a running record or per-pick marks that we can check against yet. Our count comes from the picks and the final scores alone.
By team
Record when picking each team
| Team | Picked to win | Picked to lose | ATS on them | ATS against |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ARI Arizona Cardinals | 0-1-0 | 1-0-0 | 0-2-0 | — |
| ATL Atlanta Falcons | 0-1-0 | 0-1-0 | 0-1-0 | 0-1-0 |
| BAL Baltimore Ravens | 1-0-0 | 0-1-0 | 0-1-0 | 0-1-0 |
| BUF Buffalo Bills | 0-1-0 | 0-1-0 | 0-1-0 | — |
| CAR Carolina Panthers | — | 0-1-0 | 1-0-0 | — |
| CHI Chicago Bears | 1-1-0 | — | 0-1-0 | 0-1-0 |
| CIN Cincinnati Bengals | 1-1-0 | — | 1-1-0 | — |
| CLE Cleveland Browns | 0-1-0 | 0-1-0 | 0-1-0 | 0-1-0 |
| DAL Dallas Cowboys | 1-1-0 | — | 1-1-0 | — |
| DEN Denver Broncos | 1-0-0 | 1-0-0 | 1-0-0 | 1-0-0 |
| DET Detroit Lions | 1-1-0 | — | — | 1-1-0 |
| GB Green Bay Packers | 1-0-0 | 0-1-0 | 1-0-0 | 0-1-0 |
| HOU Houston Texans | 1-0-0 | 1-0-0 | 1-0-0 | 1-0-0 |
| IND Indianapolis Colts | 1-0-0 | 1-0-0 | 1-0-0 | 1-0-0 |
| JAX Jacksonville Jaguars | 1-0-0 | 0-1-0 | 1-0-0 | 0-1-0 |
| KC Kansas City Chiefs | 1-0-0 | — | — | 1-0-0 |
| LV Las Vegas Raiders | — | 2-0-0 | 1-1-0 | — |
| LAC Los Angeles Chargers | — | 2-0-0 | — | 1-1-0 |
| LAR Los Angeles Rams | 1-1-0 | — | 1-0-0 | — |
| MIA Miami Dolphins | — | 2-0-0 | — | 1-0-0 |
| MIN Minnesota Vikings | 2-0-0 | — | 1-0-0 | — |
| NE New England Patriots | 1-0-0 | 0-1-0 | — | 0-2-0 |
| NO New Orleans Saints | 0-1-0 | 1-0-0 | 0-1-0 | 1-0-0 |
| NYG New York Giants | — | 0-1-1 | 1-0-0 | 0-1-0 |
| NYJ New York Jets | — | 1-1-0 | 0-1-0 | 0-1-0 |
| PHI Philadelphia Eagles | — | 2-0-0 | — | 2-0-0 |
| PIT Pittsburgh Steelers | 1-1-0 | — | 1-1-0 | — |
| SF San Francisco 49ers | 2-0-0 | — | 2-0-0 | — |
| SEA Seattle Seahawks | 1-0-0 | 1-0-0 | 0-1-0 | 1-0-0 |
| TB Tampa Bay Buccaneers | — | 1-1-0 | — | 1-1-0 |
| TEN Tennessee Titans | — | 2-0-0 | — | 1-1-0 |
| WSH Washington Commanders | 0-0-1 | 1-0-0 | — | 2-0-0 |
Also at USA Today
Blake Schuster · Michael Middlehurst-Schwartz · Nate Davis · Nicholas Brinkerhoff