Action Network · NFL 2026 · week 5
Vegas Refund: NFL picks record, 2026 season
Recently added · not yet eligible for comparisons We track new betting analysts for at least 30 graded picks recorded before kickoff, over at least 30 days and 2 NFL weeks, before they appear in rankings, badges and game-page counts. So far: 8 graded picks with a pre-kickoff timestamp (recorded by us before kickoff, or stamped by Action Network), over 1 day and 1 NFL week; each pick says who set the time and when we read it.
The record below counts every pick we have, the same way as for everyone. How we record and grade picks
Record so far
Vegas Refund is straight up 1-0-0 (1 of 1 decided picks) and against the spread 2-5-0 (2 of 7 decided picks).
- Straight up
- 1-0-01 of 1 decided picks
- Against the spread
- 2-5-02 of 7 decided picks
- Current streak, straight up
- 1 win in a rowLongest: 1 win
Market-adjusted points Pick results adjusted for market odds.
- Straight up, 2026 season: +0.8 points 1 pick scored · 1 of 1 with recorded odds.
Each pick counts as a 1-point play at the no-margin market price; zero is the expected score if market probabilities are accurate. Compare all pick types · How these points are calculated
8 graded picks read after the games but timestamped before kickoff by Action Network.
Market-adjusted results
Three numbers for each market: the record, market-adjusted points and a simple rule to compare with. Points count each pick as if it were a 1-point play at the market price at the time of the pick (for picks added after the game, the price at the start of that NFL week), with the bookmaker margin taken out: a win adds what that price paid (more for an underdog, less for a favorite), a loss takes away 1 point, a push counts 0. Zero is the expected score if market probabilities are accurate. How we score fairly
| Market and period | Record in these picks | Market-adjusted points | Simple rule |
|---|---|---|---|
| Straight up 2026 season | 1-0 | +0.8 points 1 pick scored · 1 of 1 with recorded odds | Every favorite: 1-0 same 1 game |
| Against the spread 2026 season | 2-5 | −3.0 points 7 picks scored · 2 with recorded odds, 5 at assumed even odds | Coin flip: 50% 3.5 of 7 decided |
Every pick
Week 5 · SU 1-0-0; ATS 2-5-0
| Game | Straight up | Against the spread | Final | How we got it |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CHI at GB Sun, Oct 11 | — | GB +1.5 Win | CHI 7, GB 31 | Timestamped before kickoff |
| CLE at NYJ Sun, Oct 11 | NYJ Win | — | CLE 12, NYJ 17 | Timestamped before kickoff |
| LV at NE Sun, Oct 11 | — | LV +3.5 Loss | LV 17, NE 45 | Timestamped before kickoff |
| MIN at NO Sun, Oct 11 | — | NO +2.5 Loss | MIN 23, NO 13 | Timestamped before kickoff |
| NYG at WSH Sun, Oct 11 | — | WSH -3.5 Loss | NYG 27, WSH 27 | Timestamped before kickoff |
| DET at ARI Sun, Oct 11 | — | DET -5.5 Win | DET 45, ARI 21 | Timestamped before kickoff |
| SF at SEA Sun, Oct 11 | — | SEA -3 Loss | SF 32, SEA 29 | Timestamped before kickoff |
| BUF at LAR Mon, Oct 12 | — | LAR -3 Loss | BUF 37, LAR 34 | Timestamped before kickoff |
By week
| Week | Straight up | Against the spread |
|---|---|---|
| Week 5 | 1-0-0 | 2-5-0 |
| Season | 1-0-0 | 2-5-0 |
Pages we read
- Action Network · recorded Oct 13, 4:23 a.m. ET
- Action Network · recorded Oct 13, 4:23 a.m. ET
Labels at each pick: recorded before kickoff (we saw it before the game), timestamped before kickoff (the platform's own time), added after the game.
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